One for this evening.
6.50 Wolverhampton Nateeja 4pts win @ 4/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) - WON
Being by Shamardal and a half sister to an all weather winner Hawaafez, Nateeja can be expected to produce her best performances on this surface. She has looked slowly progressive this year, but her two dud performances have come at tight turning tracks, one of which was at Salisbury where she lost her position on a bend, the other at Bath last time out when she didn't seem to let herself down on firm ground. Her trainer John Hills said the following:
"She rather needed reorganising around every turn which had the net effect of a jumper missing a few flights. Further will be ok and we’ll keep trying."
I don't see much wrong with her attitude, rather I think she might just be a better horse on artificial surfaces. She really saw out her race well at Kempton last November over seven furlongs, galloping willingly all the way to the line and clearly enjoying the polytrack. That quickening was never in evidence at Bath and she might just be a mare best kept to softer ground. Her aforementioned half sister's four wins came on polytrack, good turf, good to soft turf, and soft turf, so there is a logical reason to expect better this evening. I'm not sure Aloha is as good as her market position indicates, and at 4/1 a chance is taken on Nateeja finding the necessary improvement. She'll get every assistance from the saddle with Paul Hanagan booked.
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Afternoon bets:
Not a great day's racing. We have one afternoon bet, and a possible evening bet, details before 5.30pm.
3.00 Ayr Beckermet 2pts each-way @ 16/1 (generally, get guaranteed) and 1pt win @ Betfair SP - E/W 2nd
Ayr has been vertidrained and watered since the last meeting last weekend, and I think that might just take the sting out of the ground and slow the times up a bit, which ought to be in the favour of old boy Beckermet. The 11yo excels on slower surfaces but won on good to firm as recently as May, and as a dual course and distance winner on a very tempting mark of OR67 he is tempting at a big price. Ruth Carr's stable are in good form and the selection's previous two runs came on tracks with downhill undulations that I don't think he likes. Ayr's galloping straight and stiff finish seem to suit him perfectly and there is potential pace in here which might set the race up for him. Circuitous and Diamondhead in particular like to get on with it, and if that pair take each other on the likes of Rich Again, Oneladyowner and Beckermet might get into it late on. Oneladyowner has no experience of a stiff finish, Rich Again doesn't look quite ready yet, and a chance is taken on the old boy who is proven in the conditions at a much bigger price.
Profit & loss: day: +21.00 / month: -13.86 / year: +104.35
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