Two ante post selections running for us today, the analysis for both has been added below. We have one additional selection, and a chance of an evening bet - details before 5.30pm.
3.05 Ascot Mimi Luke 6pts win @ 6/1 (Boylesports, Seanie Mac, Guaranteed, 11/2 generally guaranteed)
Cost $23,000 USD as a yearling, this daughter of U.S. Ranger is one of his first progeny to run. He carries the Danzig bloodline which tends to throw up plenty of Ascot winners - progeny with those bloodlines tend to enjoy fast ground and the sand based Ascot surface. Horses with the U.S.A. suffix are profitable to follow at Ascot, and I would suggest Mimi Luke might be a bit better than a mark of OR68 which she runs off this afternoon. The selection kept good company on her first three runs, very green on her debut before acquiting herself well at Windsor and Yarmouth. She was given some time off after Yarmouth, which might be a sign she is held in some regard, and reappeared over seven furlongs at Chester at the end of June. Despite not appearing to handle the tight track, she again showed a good attitude and close on the eventual winner and Royal Connection, who reopposes, doing her best work late on. I would suggest she might have needed that run, and now into Nursery company she finds herself on a workable mark and 2lb better off with the Hannon filly. She is a fine big horse, and I think she will be well suited by the demands of Ascot. Paul Hanagan is a really interesting jockey booking, and the fact that she races prominently is a positive - slow paces and small fields were a feature of Friday's racing at Ascot and the selection's tactical speed will be of benefit. I think she has a really nice attitude, the stable had their first winner since March only the other day, and at 6/1 (Royal Connection 5/2) I think she is the standout bet of the day.
Ante Post - Bunbury Cup (Saturday)
Selection: Es Que Love 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 14/1 (Skybet, Totesport, Betfred, William Hill) - E/W 2nd
Fits almost every trend for this race, and seems to have landed himself a decent draw in stall 19. Has winning form at the other Newmarket track and will be well suited by the demands of this race, which tends to suit tough, front running horses. Johnny Murtagh is a great jockey booking and the stable could not be in better form. I expect plenty of overnight money for this horse and I see him going off at single figure odds, perhaps close to favourite. His form from last weekend behind Prince Of Johanne looks rock solid and the step back in trip should suit him. My only worry is the quick turnaround, but the trainers' horses are so well in themselves that the selection looks an obvious call at the prices.
Newmarket 13/07/13: July Cup
Selection: Hamza 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 16/1 (Skybet, Paddy Power, 14/1 generally)
The trends will mislead you into thinking you want a low draw here but I have a strong feeling the opposite will be true. The stands' side course is being utilised for this July meeting, and for the second and third days the stalls for the straight course races are on the stands side. This is the first time that the stalls have had this configuration since 2001, when Mozart made all on the rail, and the four horses drawn closest the rail filled the first four places home (in those days the stands rail was a low draw, this was reversed a couple of years ago, stall 1 is now nearest to the inside rail on the turning track for every U.K. racecourse).
Hamza likes to make all and he has come up trumps with the rail draw in that respect. He seems to enjoy Newmarket and there is little doubt he is an improving sprinter, having won his last two starts easily including one over six furlongs on Newmarket's Rowley course. He will have no problem with the dip, and it is likely he skipped Royal Ascot for this engagement given his 2/2 record over six furlongs between the two Newmarket courses. 14/1+ looks too big, and once the general betting public cotton on to the potential for a bias I expect him to be backed.
Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: -34.86 / year: +83.35
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