4.10 Redcar Escape To Glory 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 10/1 (Totesport, Betfred, Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed)
An interesting sprint. There isn't much pace on, but I'd expect Orbit The Moon, a stablemate of the selection, to make the running. Escape To Glory looks very well handicapped no off OR81 for his new trainer Michael Dods. Dods has a track record of stepping horses from other stables back in trip and making decent sprinters out of them, Mass Rally being the most recent example. Escape To Glory was stepped back to five furlongs at Carlisle last time out, and a first time tongue tie applied. He wasn't given anything like a hard time having been well outpaced, but he ran on at the finish over a trip which definitely does not suit him. To put it into context, that race was run in a time of just over a minute; he can expect to race for around eleven seconds more this afternoon over Redcar's six furlongs. His last run was the first real sign of life since joining Dods, in terms of the fact that he actually saw his race out, and it may be that the tongue tie, which is retained, did its job. He should take a tow into this race from his stablemate, and I think he is overpriced at the odds up against horses who don't find winning easy, with the exception of Al Khan who is progressive but plenty short enough at 7/2.
4.45 Curragh
Joe Eile 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 12/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
Bedloe's Island 1pt each-way @ 25/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP.
A really good renewal of this handicap, and it's nice to see the big field it deserves. Joe Eile travelled best of all in the Paddy Power handicap last time out, and he makes most appeal of the low drawn horses for a trainer whose horses are flying. He should get a decent tow into the race, but it is anyone's guess whether the low drawn horses will stay far side as they probably should - jockeys are impossible to predict. On recent form alone, he is too big a price and looks worthy of support.
Bedloe's Island is the O'Meara second string. He has improved this season for his new trainer and his penultimate run in a big field handicap at York puts him in with a shout here. He was not well drawn that day and did well in my view to finish as close up as he did. He is drawn in stall 18 and should get a good tow into the race from Whozthecat and friends. He possesses the best topspeed figure in this line up and I'm happy to forgive his Beverley run, turning tracks are not his thing. A first time visor is applied, Chris Hayes is booked to ride, and he is too big a price at anything around 20/1 and up.
Profit & loss: day: -11.00 / month: -54.86 / year: +63.35
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