Sunday 30th June 2013

We haven't had the rub of the green this week at all, a 12/1 second yesterday continuing a run of close calls.

Two for this afternoon.

3.55 Windsor Majestic Alexander 2pts each-way @ 14/1 (Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 12/1 Bet 365, Coral, guaranteed) - WON

Represents Dave Evans, whose tough year olds routinely outrun their odds. Evans was quoted as liking this filly quite a lot, but she had an interrupted preparation to her York race in May where she underperformed (soft ground also a possible excuse) and it is interesting she had a month off before racing at Bath a couple of weeks ago. That was a much better run and offered the promise of more to come - she wasn't given a very hard time behind Lilbourne Lass and the kindness her jockey showed may be repaid today. In form Neil Callan is an interesting booking here and the selection looks overpriced at double figure odds. I think it might be a positive that she missed Royal Ascot and the favourite has had only ten days to recover since the Queen Mary. With two unraced horses in here and an outsider it is difficult to see winning, I like the each-way shape of the race and with 7/2 paid for finishing second a straight each-way bet is suggested.

4.40 Salisbury Miracle Of Medinah 2pts each-way @ 15/2 (Generally guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP - WON

I'm not sure about the merits of the Intermath / Treaty Of Paris maiden run here two weeks ago, and I'm inclined to oppose those two as a result. The Hannon pair dominate the betting and rightly so, but if one horse is to threaten them it might be Miracle of Medinah, who was very impressive at Lingfield last time out despite not beating much. The selection had been targeted at this race even before that contest and doesn't carry a penalty because that was a Class 5 event. It looks a shrewd piece of race planning from Mark Usher and again there is a potential advantage to be had because Midnite Angel the favourite hasn't had long to get over Royal Ascot. 15/2 is far too big, especially in relation to the Evans horse in my view, and the booking of Silvestre De Sousa is notable.

Profit & loss: day: +59.65 / month: +100.55 / year: +120.21