2.10 Newmarket
Brown Sugar 3pts win @ 8/1 (Bet 365, Paddy Power, William Hill, Independents, guaranteed)
Intermath 1pt each-way @ 40/1 (VC Bet, Stan James, Betpack, independents, guaranteed)
This doesn't look a vintage renewal to me and I'm happy to take on the favourite Sir John Hawkins who looks too short at around 9/4 based on what he has achieved. Brown Sugar is selected against him for the Hannon stable, who have a fine record in this race. The selection made a really nice debut behind Jallota, who reopposes, staying on really well once he got the hang of things having raced on the unfavoured far side of the track early doors. He was motoring at the finish and although there is an argument that Jallota is a 20/1 shot today and is better value, I expect Brown Sugar to improve past him. He won his conditions event at Salisbury with no fuss, and the likely decent pace this afternoon will suit him (Fahey has said Canyahi will go forward, Jallota and Astaire are also likely to sit prominently).
If there is to be a shock, it could be Intermath for Dave Evans. The form of his maiden win has worked out well, and I think he is a really nice horse in the making and underestimated here. He unseated last time out, but that was no fault of his own as there were horses jumping shadows and hanging all afternoon at sunny Salisbury that day. He was well backed and travelling very well when he unshipped Tom Queally. The very fact that he is entered interests me and I think it's disrespectful to Dave Evans that this horse trades at 50/1+ on Betfair. There is 40/1 available and that's an insult to Evans' ability with both training and placing his juveniles.
2.20 Warwick Art Official 6pts win @ 2/1 (VC Bet, Ladbrokes, guaranteed, 15/8 Stan James, Betpack.com, Coral, guaranteed)
Runner up to Intermath at Salisbury, and jinked left towards the crowd on the run in, throwing away his chance of winning when travelling well. However, visual evidence from the replay suggests Major Crispies was already hanging in the same direction and obviously the inexperienced horses were just attracted to something in the crowd, rather than displaying signs of temperament. The form of his debut second is strong and I strongly fancy him to get off the mark this afternoon. I won't be surprised if I get stick for putting up a relatively short priced selection, but I think he should be more like 5/4fav so there's a decent perceived edge there. If there's a danger, I think it could be Henry Candy's Half Top if he improves for debut as some of the yards juveniles have, I'm not really afraid of Hill's or Gosden's, I might be wrong of course but at the prices I think this one merits a bet. There is also the chance of a drift on course which would be nice, so take a guaranteed price.
Profit & loss: day: -10.00 / month: -21.86 / year: +96.35
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