6.30 Kempton Between The Lines 1pt each-way @ 33/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP.
Some days you get a decent supply of 7/2 and 9/2 shots that represent good value, other days the bigger prices are the ones that should be backed. Clients can sometimes get browned off with the latter, but the fact is we don't need many of the huge priced ones to go in to keep our record with them in the black, and it's all about backing horses underestimated by the market. Between The Lines looks very much overpriced in a race with an unusual shape. I can't have any of the market leaders. Hoonose appeals most, but his trainer Pat Eddery's actual versus expected ratio with horses returning from 100 days plus is just 0.23, suggesting they tend to run far below market expectations. He is passed over. Proud Times looks a fibresand specialist to me, and looked recalcitrant on his last polytrack start, deigning to run on only when the race was over. Gunboat has no form to speak of, yet is close to favourite. There are a few, like Steely and Gladstone, who might nick this, but Gladstone's head carriage didn't look the best last time he ran on polytrack and he has disappointed since. Closely matched with him on that run is Between The Lines, ex-Sir Michael Stoute and now with Anthony Middleton. The selection ran well over twelve furlongs behind Gladstone in the race won by Attraction Ticket, and is now 2lb better off with that rival on ratings. Thomas Garner, a good 5lb claimer who mixes flat and jumps, is booked for the ride which is interesting. The most interesting fact, however, is that the horse is turned out quickly dropped in class after last week's run in a class 5 0-75 event. He weakened quickly in the final furlong that day, but went well to a point against much better horses than he meets here before weakening and being eased. Also of interest is the fact that the tongue tie he wore that day is removed. It is anyone's guess whether he resented but there is the chance Franny Norton reported it to the trainer following that run. The selection is bred to stay well, and if he breathing isn't a problem this evening (being turned out quickly suggests not), he might have a squeak at a massive price in a very poor contest.
_______________________________________________
Afternoon bets:
A good day on Monday with some each-way money in the afternoon and Nateeja an impressive winner last night.
2.00 Beverley Fuel Injection 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 33/1 (VC Bet, Stan James, Betpack.com, Ladbrokes. Coral, guaranteed)
Speculative at best, but there are firm reasons to believe Fuel Injection is overpriced as the outsider of this eight runner field. He was sent off just 10/1 for a good renewal of the Brockelsby, and showed up really well, at one point almost hitting the lead, before fading badly in the final furlong. He is from a family of fast ground lovers, and his sire has a better win percentage with runners on fast turf than soft. His run second time out at Redcar was poor, but he looked really green and unsure of how to use his stride correctly. This could be third run for a handicap mark, but it is interesting he is entered in a much stronger maiden at Ripon on Saturday and retains an entry in a classy looking sales race at the Ebor meeting in August. The stable's horses have been running better of late than at any point this year, 0/11 for July is probably deceptive from a small sample size - they had five winners from forty runners in June, as many as they'd had for the rest of the year put together. They are not noted for two year olds, and a 0-38 record with juveniles at this track over the last five seasons is offputting. However, this is a very speedily bred horse who clearly showed something at home before his Brockesby debut. It was a race that worked out well, and the likes of Picks Pinta had a break afterwards and came out to win a maiden. If the break has brought him on mentally and physically, he can outrun this 33/1 quote. The dead eight makes it a good each-way bet and stall three is a favourable draw.
Profit & loss: day: -6.00 / month: -19.86 / year: +98.35
No comments:
Post a Comment