8.35 Ffos Las Idle Curiosity 2pts each-way AND 4pts win @ 8/1 (Paddy Power, William Hill, guaranteed, 15/2 VC Bet, Coral, guaranteed). - WON
This is an absolute donkey derby, with the favourite Imperial Legend 0/19 over the course of his career and many of these looking unlikely ever to pick up a race. Idle Curiosity to me is a standout here, although she does come with potential negatives which have to be taken into account. She has at least won a race, at Kempton in early April, and there have been signs in her recent runs that there may be improvement in her over this six furlong trip. Her effort in winning at Kempton was a fair one, but it is noticeable that despite travelling well through the race, she doesn't really quicken on the surface. Her finishing effort over seven furlongs in all her recent starts hasn't been strong, but she pulled for her head on almost every occasion and there is a real sense from both her pedigree and her run style that six furlongs might bring about further improvement. Connections tried her over the trip at Lingfield last time out, but she finished last - this is easily explained, however, by the pace bias Lingfield's all weather track is currently showing. The kickback there is quite unbelievable at the moment and if you're not out in front, you're probably not winning. Idle Curiosity started well and travelled well to a point, but got absolutely lashed with sand and was quite clearly resenting the experience, eventually allowed to come home in her own time. Her two best runs have come when turned out relatively quickly after one recent run, and they are the circumstances under which she lines up this evening. This is only her second time racing on turf, but I find it interesting the dam has thrown six siblings, with twenty four wins between them and only one of those on the all weather. It is hard to know for certain how significant that is, but it can't go down as a negative and looking at her finishing efforts on the all weather, I think there may be improvement for the surface too.
The negatives are the stable form, they have had a good year in general but are 0-9 in July. It is not a big enough sample to put me off. Also, we're making a series of educated guesses regarding the potential improvement. The important thing here is the price - if she does improve for the race conditions, I make her an awful lot shorter than an 8/1 shot in this company. The stable send her on quite a journey this evening to a track they rarely visit, but they do have a 1/5 20% strike rate there in recent years and seem to pick and choose their visits. The booking of a jockey who could not be in better form and is improving all the time is the icing on the cake, and I think at the prices we have to have a decent chunk on. We'll stake it so we lose very little in the event of her running a place, maximising our return if she wins.
Profit & loss: day: +51.20 / month: -9.66 / year: +108.55
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