Two for this afternoon, and a possible evening bet released before 5.30pm.
4.00 Lingfield Much Promise 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 20/1 (Bet 365, guaranteed, 16/1 generally guaranteed) - E/W 2nd
The trendy thing these days is not to support unraced horses in maidens, which has led in recent years to unraced horses actually being overpriced on occasion. We've used this to our advantage in recent weeks, with notable success having relied on pedigree analysis, sales details, and trainer patterns. These two Lingfield maidens stuck out for me this afternoon because I'm not over keen on any of those with experience and there are one or two interesting newcomers to consider. Champion trainer John Gosden's string have been slower to come to hand this year, but his stable have hit form in no uncertain terms in recent weeks and I find it interesting he sends two juvenile fillies to Lingfield with the stable jockey riding both, his only two engagements of the afternoon. Much Promise is really well bred as a half sister to Oaks winner Talent among others. Her sprint sire ensures there is enough speed in her pedigree that six furlongs on debut should be with in her compass in terms of speed, and I think she is overpriced in a race where I'd be against the principals Hoku and Along Again.
4.30 Lingfield Dorothy B 4pts win @ 4/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
Dorothy B is by a sire who gets plenty of sprinters in the Southern Hemisphere, Fastnet Rock. She cost 130,000GNS as a yearling and is entered in arguably the weaker of the two races here. Drawn well on debut, I don't think she will need to be that good to win this. Her dam's side is more of a middle distance influence, but her trainer knows the time of day and I would suggest she may have showed up well in fast work at home. She makes plenty of appeal and we'll have a moderate interest.
Profit & loss: day: -2.00 / month: -21.86 / year: +96.35
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