Wednesday 28th August 2013

Beach Rhythm won handy yesterday and should continue to hold his own and perhaps improve in sprint handicaps, particularly on fibresand.

Four interests at Southwell this evening.

5.20 Southwell She Can Jig 4pts win @ 5/2 (Generally, get guaranteed)

She Can Jig won impressively in the end last time out and looks a scopey, strong filly who is just coming to herself. Sire Dutch Art's progeny have a 22% strike rate at this track and I think the step up to six furlongs will suit her well. The 7lb claim of Kevin Stott is daylight robbery at this stage and with a good draw in stall five, I actually thought the selection would be less than 2/1.

6.20 Southwell Maidana 3pts win @ 11/2 (Generally, get guaranteed)

A brutal poor maiden, but there is some hope from Maidana's pedigree that she will enjoy this surface and she looked a well made filly on debut at Ripon. The Racing Post doesn't tell you she got a really bad bump at the start of that race and in fairness to Gary Mahon, the 7lb claimer who rode her, she was looked after with kid gloves and will ultimately have enjoyed the experience. She travelled well enough to a point but the bump probably done for her and I would hope that, in a contest she should be able to win if ready, she has come on enough for that initial racecourse experience to show what she can do this evening.

6.50 Southwell First In Command 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 14/1 (Coral, guaranteed, 12/1 generally guaranteed) - WON

I think you want to be drawn low enough here and there is plenty of pace around the selection with Pull The Pin and Clubland drawn nearby. The selection is a triple course winner and has been in decent form although handicapped out of it slightly this summer. He has dropped to a mark of OR76 now, though, which I'd say is just about surmountable given that he gets ideal conditions this evening. With question marks about a few of these he makes plenty of appeal at a double figure price.

7.50 Southwell Imperial Bond 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 16/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Jason Ward does well with sweetening up these lower grade fillies, and his horses also have a good record at Southwell. The selection probably ran her best race yet at Newcastle last time and done all her best work at the finish. This looks a poor enough contest apart from the favourite, with many of the usual suspects lining up, and there isn't anything in the field that looks progressive. Imperial Bond just might be, and although she has never raced here, she is another whose pedigree offers some hope of her handling the surface. At 16/1, she is worth playing to small stakes.

Profit & loss: day: +21.50 / month: +119.00 / year: +252.19

Tuesday 27th August 2013

A nice winner with Roachdale House yesterday and good to see Lee Topliss riding decent horses.

Just one selection for Tuesday. 

4.40 Southwell Beach Rhythm 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 7/1 (Boylesports, SeanieMac.com, 13/2 generally guaranteed) - WON

Beach Rhythm has the U.S.A.-suffix on his breeding which so many horses who enjoy the Southwell fibresand do. The selection made his fibresand debut a couple of months back over six furlongs here, but drew the coffin box stall 1. He still ran well, taking into consideration that he probably wasn't fully fit on his second run after a break. His recent Lingfield run in first time blinkers was more promising still, and he showed plenty of toe over six furlongs under a hard enough hold, before fading into a respectable fourth inside the furlong. He is a big horse and didn't look fluent around the turn or coming down the hill. Today's straight five furlongs on fibresand ought to suit him down to the ground, and his draw in stall four looks perfect to my mind - I wouldn't want to be too close to the rail on the near side rail nor isolated on the far side. This doesn't look a strong contest and at anything around 6/1+ the selection looks good value. A first time visor is applied and a good 3lb claimer gets the ride.

Profit & loss: day: +31.50 / month: +97.50 / year: +230.69

Monday 26th August 2013

Pieman's Girl ran very poorly yesterday, regressing from debut but probably being hidden too. Expect improvement on the all weather this winter.

Two for today.

1pt each-way double on today's selections - take guaranteed odds.

2.15 Newcastle Roachdale House 5pts win @ 5/2 (Bet Victor, Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 9/4 generally guaranteed) - WON

Not a strong looking maiden overall and although a few will probably be backed, I expect Richard Fahey's Roachdale House to win unless the O'Meara newcomer is very good indeed. There is an inherent risk there, but I think the selection will run to an RPR 80+ this afternoon meaning that anything else that wins will have to be very good - particularly the debutant. Roachdale House was green on debut, but stayed on with two other good horses at the finish given nothing like a hard time, and on pedigree and knee action today's softer ground will suit, as will the step up to seven furlongs. If we knew Coin Broker was potentially very good, I'd still make Roachdale House favourite based on his race experience and trainer's better record with two year olds, all of which makes 5/2 look very fair here.

3.35 Ripon Ventura Mist 3pts win @ 10/1 (Bet 365, Coral, William Hill, guaranteed, 9/1 generally guaranteed)

I thought Venture Mist ran a really nice race at York despite appearing not to handle the ground and a chance is taken on her improving turned out quickly on ground she will handle, at a track she ran well on for her first two starts. Her trainer has a fine record at this track, and I would have made her a 13/2 shot in this company. There appears to have been an over reaction to the finishing position of her recent run rather than taking into account all the facts. The price is simply too big to ignore and we'll put her in an each-way double with our first selection too.

Profit & loss: day: +7.50 / month: +66.00 / year: +199.19

Sunday 25th Auguat 2013

Just one selection for Sunday. 

2.00 Yarmouth Pieman's Girl 2pts each-way @ 14/1 (Bet Victor, Ladbrokes, William Hill, independents, guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP

Those at the front of the market either don't set an exacting standard or are unraced, and although Two Smart represents a shrewd stable I think she'll need to be pretty good to win first time out. Pieman's Girl looked a really nice horse on her debut and a chance is taken on her having found improvement since despite having had 89 days off. She was very green on her debut, needing an early slap down the neck to encourage her to go forward. However, she really got the message and travelled as strong as anything else in the race for a long way until Joyeuse, a half sister to Frankel, asserted to win. Pieman's Girl got tired close home but that was to be expected on her debut and she was given nothing like a hard time in the closing stages. The fact that she has been off since tempers enthusiasm somewhat, but the stable had a winner yesterday and I think they pick and choose their entries well rather than running horses into the ground. The price makes up for the negatives in this case and at 14/1 and with a potential bigger Betfair SP, she looks well worth an each-way and win interest.

Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: +58.50 / year: +191.69

Ebor Festival 2013 - Day Four

A nice profit again yesterday with Chancery obliging in the first. Many of you had no problem getting 14/1 which was good to hear.

York will be an absolute quagmire this afternoon following heavy overnight rain, throw your formbook out the window, it's biggest feet wins today.

2:05 Betfred City of York Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 7f

Switcher 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 12/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Switcher is aptly named for today, given that she makes her debut for Richard Fahey having failed to make an impact with David O'Meara. She is by Whipper, whose progeny are very profitable to back on soft ground, and the form of her Ascot run last summer would suggest she handles conditions, although she did disappoint on heavy in Ireland. That run was too bad to be true and I wouldn't put it solely down to the ground. She is speculative at best here but many of these will not handle the conditions and if she does, she could be an early placepot buster for some as the outsider of six. She looks too big at 12/1 and should be backed each-way and win to small stakes.

2:40 Betfred Melrose Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 1m6f

2.40 York Havana Cooler 4pts win @ 7/2 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Havana Cooler is a big, heavy topped horse who looks a right powerhouse and is probably still well handicapped off OR93. I actually think he will end up as a Group horse, and the sight of him pulling aggressively for his head as Fallon tried to pull him up at Newmarket on his penultimate run marked him down as one to watch for me. He is forgiven his Goodwood third as I don't think he handled the track, and I think he can make amends today at a course that should suit him much better. Ryan Moore had a quieter day yesterday but I expect him to be back in the winners enclosure after this race. I am confident the horse will handle conditions having watched his soft ground second over a mile as a two year old.

3:15 Irish Thoroughbred Marketing Gimcrack Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) Cl1 6f

No account bet here but Parbold should enjoy conditions and might be good enough to win.

3:50 Betfred Ebor (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 1m6f

Ted Veale 4pts win @ 5/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

I'm not sure Tony Martin had Ted Veale as fit as he thought at Galway and he is forgiven the fact that he travelled best before emptying on heavy ground that day. He won during the week and the penalty got him into this race, and as a horse who will handle conditions well he is selected at a price which I think may collapse before the off. He is National Hunt bred, which I feel will give him an advantage in these conditions, and although a strict reading of the formbook says he isn't proven at the trip, he hasn't had many chances on the flat and is unexposed. I think the price is good value because many of these won't get home, and he can continue what has been an excellent summer for Tony Martin.

4:25 Julia Graves Roses Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 5f

Mecca's Angel 4pts win @ 9/4 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Again Mecca's Angel looks highly likely to appreciate the soft ground, where some of her rivals will not. Her pedigree and a look through her form suggests she has done well to get competitive at the likes of Hamilton on a faster surface, and she seems to have been campaigned with Autumn and winter in mind. Looking down through the race I don't see Excel's Beauty handling conditions and I'm surprised she has been left in. Hot Streak might be the biggest danger but 9/4 is still too big on the selection and there's every chance of an on course drift with these volatile juvenile markets.

5:00 Betfred The Bonus King Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 1m2f88y

No betting interest for us here, but Two For Two should handle conditions and continue a great week for the O'Meara team. Too short in this race for an account bet.

5:35 Qipco Future Stars Apprentice Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 5f

Normal Equilibrium skipped clear at Chester the only time he faced going with "soft" in the description, and he is a token choice for this sprint, but I won't be getting involved given the apparent draw bias towards high numbers yesterday and the messy looking shape to the race with more potential non runners.

Profit & loss: day: -15.00 / month: +63.50 / year: +196.69

Ebor Festival 2013 - Day Three

I can't quite believe Joe Fanning didn't lead on Windhoek yesterday and I was screaming at the T.V. from an early stage, which is most unlike me as I try to remain emotionally distanced from my betting. Whether the horse was unbalanced early or something I don't know, but I think he should have won and it was a double bogey seeing our old friend Mont Ras land the spoils at 25/1.

Three selections for this afternoon.

1:55 Sky Bet Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 1m4f

Chancery 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 14/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) - WON

I have to admit that I wasn't aware York had a thunderstorm late last night - there was no mention of it on B.H.A. early this morning and satellite pics showed nothing from 2am onwards (they onyl go back 6hrs). Saying that, Chancery has plenty of form on good to soft and I actually think the fact that horses will be coming back to him might suit better. His stable are in fine form and the manner of his victory here on his penultimate start marked him down as quite a bit ahead of the handicapper in my view. He disappointed at Haydock, might that have been rock hard ground? I am prepared to forgive one bad run at double figure prices and if he runs his race I can't see him out of the places.

2:30 Weatherbys Hamilton Insurance Lonsdale Cup (British Champions Series) (Group 2) Cl1 2m88y

No betting interest here. Times Up hasn't fired this year but the reports Ed Dunlop has released have been positive and I was very impressed with the horse when he won this last year. He is obviously proven over course and distance as such, and the booking of Ryan Moore is always a bonus. He makes appeal at 9/2 for those looking for an interest.

3:05 Sky Bet Strensall Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m208y

No betting interest here. I think the filly Pavlosk has the best chance of winning, but that is reflected in odds of 15/8 best price.

3:40 Coolmore Nunthorpe Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) Cl1 5f

Slade Power 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 9/1 (Bet 365, Totesport, Boylesports, Seanie Mac, Betfred, Bet Victor, guaranteed)

Slade Power is a horse who has impressed me massively this season, his Group 3 win over Hamza last time out being a perfect prep for this race. He travels so well, and is generous off the bridle much in the manner of his star stablemate Sole Power. If anything I think Slade Power has more potential, and at this stage of his career I think he might have more speed too. He has a good draw in stall 9 and his sire Dutch Art's progeny have a notable 18% strike rate at this track. All in all I thought 9/1 was very generous, I wouldn't be reading anything into jockey bookings here and if the gaps come at the right time I think the selection must go very close.

4:20 Sky Bet Mobile Convivial Maiden Stakes Cl2 7f

Red Galileo 4pts win @ 9/4 (Generally, get guaranteed)

An interesting maiden, and while I think Ron Harris' Supersta deserves a black type mention and might be worth a saver to outrun massive odds, I think Red Galileo had a tremendous presence about him at Newmarket and looks a Group horse in the making. I think that Newmarket maiden was better than the Goodwood race featuring three of the market principals, so unless the Ryan newcomer is very special I make 9/4 about the selection a very good price. The bonus is a potential on course drift - this could go off 5/4fav or 3/1JF and still win. The ground would be a slight question mark but his profile appeals as very solid indeed and I'm a recent convert to the skills of his jockey Andrea Atzeni, who seems to have put his head down and worked very hard for the opportunities he is now deservedly getting.

4:55 Nationwide Accident Repair Services Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 1m

Shrimper Roo 1pt win, 1pt place @ Betfair SP 

Nothing in here sticks out as especially well handicapped, and I'm inclined to take a chance at astronimical odds about Shrimper Roo causing a shock. He quite simply doesn't have as much to find on the principals as the market suggests, and his fast finishing third over five furlongs at this track behind Moviesta in May has worked out really well - that was a red hot 3yo sprint handicap that has thrown up good horses. The selection hasn't set the world on fire since but he is proven on soft ground and has picked up a race as recently as last month, the last time he raced on ground without "soft" in the description. It wouldn't be unlike Tim Easterby to have one go in at a big price at this meeting, and although he needs to improve for the step up in trip, I just think this price is plain wrong - 25/1 is more like my idea of his true odds. You'll get four places paid on Betfair, and the advice is a small investment win and place at the exchange SP.

Profit & loss: day: +35.50 / month: +78.50 / year: +211.69

Ebor Festival 2013 - Day Two

Bahamian Heights won more impressively than the margin suggested yesterday, making the 14/1 look generous. It was nice to get the meeting off to a profitable start.

Interests for us in the first three races only this afternoon.

1:55 DBS Premier Yearling Stakes Cl2 6f 

Nezar 2pts win @ 9/1

Ventura Mist 2pts win @ 12/1

Fair Ranger 2pts win @ 16/1

A really good renewal of this sales race. It generally pays to side with stables who are proven in these races and I've gone with three selections win only, from Haggas, Hannon and Tim Easterby, who won this race in 2009.

Nezar has been well backed on the assumption that he is probably Group class, and represents a trainer who targets these races year in, year out. The selection ran really well last time out behind Cricklewood Green, and looked like the sort who still wasn't the finished article. He didn't shirk when he got in a battle and was only beaten on the nod - he is bound to come on for that and it is likely he has been trained for this race.

Venture Mist represents a stable whose juveniles are flying. She looked very progressive earlier this season and her defeat behind Fig Roll can partially be attributed to the fact that she didn't travel well in the dip. She has been off since and it is highly likely this contest has been her aim all season.

Fair Ranger has the assistance of the peerless (around here anyway!) Ryan Moore. His defeat of Brazos at Warwick looks more impressive now than it did then, with that horse winning at Goodwood and running well enough in the Acomb yesterday. Fair Ranger ultimately won that race quite easily, and he is another who has probably been aimed at this ever since. His trainer has a deep pool of juvenile talent and it is interesting this one shows up for the gig and gets Moore in the saddle. 16/1 is far too big.

2:30 Connolly´s Red Mills Lowther Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies) Cl1 6f

Kaiulani 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 14/1 (Generally guaranteed)

This race seems to lack a star candidate and it is possible to pick holes in the form of just about every contender. Kaiulani gets the nod at a big price for a stable who have won this contest twice in the last ten years. She was well backed when winning easily on debut before running only moderately in the Queen Mary behind Rizeena. However, she did all her best work at the finish that day and the step up to six furlongs is likely to see her in a much better light. I've taken a look at her work on Mick Channon's website and she travelled all over Wee Jean in her latest piece on August 6th, without really being asked to race with her (Wee Jean is rated OR90). She looks a big price here and although there are fitness concerns, they are certainly factored into the odds.

3:05 Clipper Logistics Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 1m

Windhoek 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 9/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) - E/W 2nd

Mark Johnston's horses tend not to go well at York, but the quick ground should see his string do better at this meeting and they had a stable 1-3 in the staying handicap yesterday. Windhoek has a strong piece of course form to his name - he ran really well in the Dante, last off the bridle and still travelling well around a furlong out, before his stamina ebbed away and he faded. That form has obviously worked out very well and the selection must be well handicapped here off OR102 with a 3yo weight allowance in his favour. He is drawn in stall 3 and I would suggest a flat track will suit him much better than the likes of Goodwood or Sandown. I actually think this is a very big price and with 16 lining up, he rates cracking each-way value. He looks the bet of the meeting so far.

3:40 Darley Yorkshire Oaks (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m4f

No betting interest for us here, but Emirates Queen is by Street Cry and will enjoy the return to fast ground. She may be worth a small interest win and place on the exchanges, where you'll get paid on the first three home for place purposes.

4:20 "Breeders Backing Racing" EBF Galtres Stakes (Listed Race) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m4f

Say looks a decent enough price at 9/2 here, and although we won't have an account bet she looks worth an interest at 9/2 for those at the track.

4:55 Eventmasters co uk EBF Fillies´ Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 7f

This looks a minefield, but Nurpur is probably still progressive and with Ryan Moore on board is worth an each-way interest for those looking to get involved at 6/1.

Profit & loss: day: -8.50 / month: +43.00 / year: +176.19

York Ebor Festival 2013 - Day One

A great start to York's Ebor festival in terms of the top class racing offered, and I'm expecting us to come out with a profit by week's end as we have done at Ascot and Goodwood already this summer.

1:55 Symphony Group Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 5f89y 

Above Standard 3pts win @ 8/1 (Bet 365, Stan James, Betpack.com, Coral, William Hill, guaranteed)

Barnet Fair 1pt each-way @ 12/1 (Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 11/1 generally guaranteed) 

AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP.

The name of Mick Easterby has long been associated with this racecourse and Above Standard is selected as a likely sort to land this sprint for local connections. The selection won at this track on his penultimate start and was not disgraced at Goodwood last time out on a track that may not have suited him. He looks very progressive and deserves to be favourite; he also looks one of the best handicapped horses in this contest of a mark of OR90. I think there is improvement to come and with luck in running he can add to his earlier course success over this intermediate distance.

There is loads of pace in the race and Barnet Fair has to be worth betting at a double figure price as a result. He is another who is forgiven his Goodwood run last time out, he wasn't drawn well in the Steward's Cup and you'd have to think the company was a lot hotter than he meets here too. A similar type of horse was only just denied in this contest last year in the shape of Mass Rally, and having followed the selection this season I think he has improved - the way he pulled clear of his side of the field when winning at Ascot on his penultimate start suggested he is in peak form, and with the right ride from his talented 5lb claiming rider, and luck in running, he should go very close.

2:30 Pinsent Masons LLP Acomb Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 7f 

Il Paparazzi 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 17/2 (Betfair Sportsbook, guaranteed, 8/1 Paddy Power, Ladbrokes, independents, guaranteed)

Anything around 7/1 or better on Il Paparazzi looks a misprice to me. The selection is a course and distance winner with a stride any older horse would be proud of, who looked to get better the further he went when winning his maiden here last time out. He is from the family of Camelot, by Royal Applause, and he appears to have been priced up based on his connections here. I have him ahead of the Godolphin horse and very closely matched with The Grey Gatsby on form and as a result I've backed him each way. His trainer clearly thinks the world of him and rates him as a potential 2,000 Guineas horse: 

"Tomorrow afternoon Il Paparazzi returns to the Knavesmire for the Acomb Stakes (2.30 June 20th), it what will be the biggest day of our training career so far. Neil Callan takes the ride in the seven furlong Group 3  for two year olds. Il Paparazzi was very impressive when spread eagling the field on his second start over course and distance and has continued to improve in his homework since then. The form of that race is working out well with both the third and fourth going on to win. It’s a big day for us and a credit to the whole team to be able to produce a two year old to compete at this level with a realistic chance. It’ll be a restless night hoping that big raking stride is enough to carry his fine head past the post in front.

Proven over course and distance it’ll be the opposition that pose the biggest hurdle. The Grey Gatsby really caught the eye when winning on debut and looks to be a fantastic mover and should be suited by the extra furlong. First Flight was far from the finished article when making a winning debut in a Newbury maiden that probably wasn’t that strong. However the manner in which he made up a significant amount of lost ground was noteworthy. This is a different test though and both will be taken into new territory, as will all the runners and its what happens when they come under that pressure that makes this such an interesting race, a star will be born and dreams will be broken."

Don't worry if you see his distinctive sweat patch on his right shoulder, I've noticed that on all his starts so it is no reason not to back him. Here's hoping he runs his race and improves again from his second start - if he does, he will be very hard to pass.

3:05 Neptune Investment Management Great Voltigeur Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) Cl1 1m4f 

No bet for us here but Telescope looks worth taking on. Secret Number and Cap O'Rushes are both suggested win only against the favourite, dutched for a return of around 2/1 on the race if either wins.

3:40 Juddmonte International Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) Cl1 1m2f88y 

A cracking renewal of this prestigious Group 1. For me there are question marks about both the market leaders. Al Kazeem is apparently being trained to peak for the Arc, and I'm not too keen on his form as top drawer Group 1 level achievement. He also hung on the fast ground last time out which suggested to me that he might have had enough for now. Toronado is the likeliest winner but we can't be sure he will improve for the step up in trip. The suggestion here is to back Trading Leather for a place only at around 2/1 on Betfair. His staying form has a very solid look to it and ten furlongs on this galloping track should be perfect for him. I think 2/1 for him to run in the first two is very fair and looks the best bet in a race that is probably otherwise best watched and enjoyed.

4:20 Lanstone Building Conservation Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 2m88y

No interest in this as a betting race. However, Tim Easterby's string have come into form just recently and if you must have a bet, you could do worse than a few quid each-way on Crackentorp at 33/1+. Homeric looks best of the shorter prices.

4:55 BetVictor.com Stakes (Nursery Handicap) Cl2 6f

Bahamian Heights 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 14/1 (Generally guaranteed) - WON

Tiger Twenty two 1pt each-way @ 20/1 (VC Bet, guaranteed, 16/1 generally guaranteed) 

AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP

A really interesting Nursery. I'm not keen of anything from the top of the market, although there is a lot to be said for Ventura Spirit he is short enough and I wasn't massively enamoured with his head carriage last time out. I've decided to go with two tough as boots juveniles who are proven battlers, because I think a tight finish is likely here and whatever wins will have to fight for it. Bahamian Heights is potentially well handicapped off OR90, and he has been running in much better company than most of these just lately. Although he hasn't troubled the judge, he has not been disgraced either and is arguably a bit better than both results. I liked his Yarmouth win and at 14/1, with Ryan Moore on board and first time blinkers applied, he appeals to me.

Richard Fahey won this last year and by his own admission the favourite is probably his number one today, but he insists Tiger Twenty Two has surprised him. He apparently doesn't do a tap at home, but he is developing a bit of a liking for York and the form of his win here last time has been franked by the runner up. He finds loads for pressure and has the assistance of a good 5lb claimer who won on him last time. This is very much a horses for courses track, a theme I'll be incorporating into my selections all week (three course winners from five selections today), and Tiger Twenty Two looks just the sort to excel in a big field York handicap.

Profit & loss: day: +17.50 / month: +51.49 / year: +184.69

Monday 19th August 2013

Just one for this evening.

7.20 Wolverhampton Amadaffair 5pts win @ 7/2 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Represents a stable whose juveniles tend to come on for a run and I was quite impressed with the way she went about her business first time out. This is a case of her having the strongest form on offer in my view, and if she comes on for the first start at all, I think she should beat these. I think she might be backed at the current price, I'm not sure the Ffos Las race Flashy Queen ran in was any good at all, and I'm happy to take she and Alfie Lunete on at the prices.

_________________________________________________

One selection for this afternoon, and a possible evening bet to be released before 5.15pm.

2.00 Thirsk Johara 2pts each-way @ 12/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP

I'm quite surprised it seems to have gone under the radar that Chris Wall has bothered sending this filly to Thirsk from Newmarket, presumably for a bit of soft ground, with Ted Durcan in the saddle as a one trick jockey (only ride of the day). The selection made a nice debut at Kempton, held up but travelling strongly in a decent fillies' maiden, ultimately failing to quicken on the surface. She is a big filly with some knee action, and I like the way she picked up the bridle on her debut once she was ridden early on. She got tired in the home straight, but I'd expect that given the stable aren't renowned for putting the gun to the heads of their two year olds. She now holds a number of entries in good sales races, which is interesting, and suggests she may not be on a handicapping program as many of her stablemates are. That indicates they think she is useful, their is some evidence of that in the debut run, and they seem to have gone to a bit of trouble with the entry here. It is a bonus that she has the best of the draw in stall 13/13, and I would hope Durcan can either grab the rail in the lead or close enough to it. Providing she gets a trouble free passage, she should go close and 12/1 is a pleasing surprise.

Profit & loss: day: -10.00 / month: +33.99 / year: +167.19

Saturday 17th August 2013

A very busy Saturday afternoon for us, with our largest outlay in a while - those days just come along every so often, as do the blank ones.

1.55 Doncaster Imaginary World 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 7/1 (Generally, guaranteed) - E/W 2nd

I mentioned last week when we backed Imaginary World that her trainer was getting improvement out of seemingly exposed older horses all summer, and indeed the selection achieved a lifetime best RPR when winning at Southwell. She has been put up only 2lb for that, and I feel there is definitely some improvement to come. The question mark is the turf surface, but she wasn't much good at winning on either surface before and that victory might have done her confidence good. Connections seem to have agreed on the seven furlong trip as her optimum, which interests me given that it is a specialist distance. Doncaster suits hold up horses, and if this claimer can execute similar tactics to last week, I think she has the beating of a moderate looking field.

2.40 Newbury Aiken 4pts win @ 4/1 (Bet 365, Totesport, Betfred, Bet Victor, guaranteed)

Recent entries would suggest Aiken has been in fast work for a while, and with the rain now hitting Newbury again I think he is value at 4/1 to beat what looks an inferior field. He was extremely progressive in staying contests last season and can probably improve again as a five year old. His trainer's string are in top form now and should enjoy a strong finish to the season. William Buick is off to ride in the Arlington Million on Grandeur later tonight, and while Rab Havlin is not as good a pilot, he can get the job done.

3.30 Ripon 

Pearl Ice 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 9/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Summerinthecity 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 12/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

I've adopted the traditional no-nonsense approach of backing one from either side for this decent renewal of the Great St. Wilfred. Pearl Ice represents a stable having a fine season and I fancy her to get the better of Spinatrix on the far side, on what might be slightly faster ground than when they met a few weeks back. I think she is well drawn in stall 3 (I mean, with the far side taken in isolation) and this would appear to have been the plan for a while. Summerinthecity appeared to miss Glorious Goodwood for this race and that says a lot, because his trainer loves a Goodwood winner. This will have been the plan and his York form behind Tropics looks very strong. He looks top dog on the near side, and don't rule out Dr. Red Eye running better than his odds suggest - on a quieter day, we might have had a small each-way interest in him.

3.40 Doncaster Yair Hill 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 18/1 (Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 16/1 generally guaranteed)

I'm not too sure Smarty Socks is well handicapped these days and I'm keen to take both he and Lutine Bell, who doesn't seem to get the job done, with something at a bigger price. I can count around four of these who might not even give their best running, which makes Yair Hill a really decent each-way proposition at the prices. He transferred from Kevin Ryan recently having won for that trainer at Thirsk earlier this season. I am not sure of the circumstances, but he is in the same ownership. The selection hung on fast ground last time, but Doncaster has been watering and I think he may find the surface more to his liking here. There is also some pace in the race, which I think will suit, and most of the major jockeys are elsewhere - Doncaster is a very difficult track at which to judge the pace correctly. An exception is Freddie Tylicki, who rides this track extremely well and is an eye catching booking - his 18% strike rate here returning a level stakes profit of +21.05 really adds appeal to this selection. The price looks far too big and although we need to excuse his most recent runs, he still looks progressive when things drop right for him.

Profit & loss: day: -15.25 / month: +43.99 / year: +177.19

Friday 16th August 2013

Possible evening bets will follow at 5.30pm.

3.45 Newcastle Mash Potato 6pts win @ 9/2 (Generally, get guaranteed) - WON

The progeny of Whipper are, perhaps somewhat surprisingly, improving with time and distance, and they are also very profitable to back on soft and heavy ground. Mash Potato came up against a handicap blot last time out, but was well clear of the remainder of the field and will be better suited by softer ground this afternoon, at a track he has already won at. The favourite might end up being a Group horse or something like that, but his attitude was questionable at Leicester last time out and he might not be in love with the game. The rest look beatable and unless the favourite does improve, I think this is at the mercy of the selection who might be very well handicapped off OR60. I like this as a bet and am having a decent stake on.

3.55 Newbury Lady Chantilly 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 25/1 (Bet Victor, Betfred, Totesport, Sporting Bet, Independents)

Newbury has taken plenty of rain this morning according to satellite pictures, and I would suggest the sting will be taken out of the ground and it might well end up good with good to soft in places. That might liven up the betting for this contest and one filly who definitely won't be inconvenienced is Lady Chantilly. She displays quite a lot of knee action and has a definite influence for soft ground on her dam's side. Six furlongs has looked to stretch her last twice, and the return to five furlongs on ground without sting could see her improve quite a bit. She wasn't disgraced in the Prix Robert Papin last time out and this drop in class ought to be in her favour. Cathy Gannon rides and she looks a fair bit overpriced in my view.

Profit & loss: day: +24.00 / month: +59.24 / year: +192.44

Thursday 15th August 2013

Just one for this evening.

8.15 Chepstow James Pollard 3pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 15/2 (Bet 365, William Hill, guaranteed, 7/1 generally guaranteed)

A poor contest by any account but the ground at Chepstow has definitely eased and the watering policy will not have helped. That will definitely bring the galloping James Pollard into it. The eight year old only wins in his turn, but he looks very well handicapped off OR60 based on last years form and he is proven in class 5 contests, a grade above that which he contests this evening. He comes into this contest having had three recent runs after a mid season break, and is proven at this track having won over course and distance on heavy ground last year. He tends to run well at this time of year and is reunited with a 5lb claiming amateur who knows the horse well having won on him over hurdles and on the flat. With question marks over many of these, and a decent pace looking likely, he makes plenty of each-way appeal at 7/1 or better.

Profit & loss: day: -7.00 / month: +35.24 / year: +168.44

Wednesday 14th August 2013

Two for Kempton.

7.15 Kempton Full Day 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 12/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

It seems a long time ago that we had such fun backing Ralph Beckett's overpriced two year olds at all sorts of prices, and the markets have well and truly cottoned on to this excellent trainer at this stage. His filly in this maiden looks overpriced, however, and it gives us an opportunity to reacquaint our affection for the stable. The selection made a really pleasing debut at Salisbury, travelling well and turning in widest of all, staying on under hands and heels with her early efforts perhaps taking a toll. Nothing went right at Ascot last time out, when she was trapped wide without cover and right up the front racing into a headwind, in a race that looked a bit all over the shop to me. She is given another chance, especially on this surface - she has a good pedigree for it and early signs are that her sire, a son of Dansili (whose progeny do well on polytrack), will do well with polytrack horses (currently 2/5 in the U.K. on this surface). There are all weather winners on the dam's side, and this filly looked quite an athletic sort on debut - the type who should do well around here. A wide draw has to be overcome, but if she gets some cover I think she's good enough to win this with a fast late surge. The excellent Jim Crowley rides.

9.15 Kempton 

King Bertie 3pts win @ 11/1 (VC Bet, guaranteed, 10/1 generally guaranteed)

Midnight Feast 2pts win @ 28/1 (Bet Victor, Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 25/1 generally guaranteed)

I thought I'd take a couple of flyers here at prices, because this race looks overloaded with pace. I count at least five who like to make the running, and unless they all take back, I can see this being a truly run affair. That might bring the finishers into it, and although Eager To Bow sticks out 4/1 is too short. King Bertie has just switched to Michael Wigham from Peter Chapple Hyam and looks the type of horse to improve for his new stable. He is proven on the surface and if his jockey can tuck him in and get cover from a wide draw, he might be in with a chance of closing successfully in the straight.Midnight Feast is becoming something of a Kempton specialist, and I can't see why he is 28/1. Again he is drawn wide but he has been versatile with regard to tactics in the past and if this good 3lb claimer can get some cover, there is every chance he can win this. I don't see much point in backing two since we are reliant on luck in running and both selections have a bit of a win or bust profile to them.

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Afternoon Bets:

One race of interest this afternoon, and possible evening bets released before 5.30pm.

3.10 Beverley 

Margret's Gift 3pts win @ 7/1 (Betfred, VC Bet, William Hill, Independents, get guaranteed)

Abisko 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 33/1 (Bet 365, Stan James, Betpack.com, Ladbrokes, guaranteed)

An interesting maiden, and nothing sets such an exacting standard that I'd see any one horse as dominant. As such I'm happy to take two against the field at decent prices. Margret's Gift represent a stable who have done well with two year old sprinting fillies in the past, and her second run at Ripon was a really good one. She tacked across to the far side with two others, and beat the two on that side senseless, clear of that group a furlong out. She probably led a furlong out overall, but was caught by two horses on the stands side. It is hard to know if she had an advantage by tacking over, equally she may have been inconvenienced by it and if so, her performance might be worth marking up. She showed good speed and will have no problem dropping back to the minimum, as a result she appeals at the prices.

Abisko needs a little more explaining. She ran really well first time out, hitting the front at one point but appearing too nervous to go ahead of the other horses and eventually fading to third. She has blown the start last twice, and that too might just be as a result of greenness and nervousness rather than temperament - she was happy enough to race on both occasions and indeed performed well in the end, given the circumstances, last time out at Pontefract. First time blinkers are applied today and they might just do her the power of good if they help her confidence. She certainly has enough speed for the trip and it is interesting too that Ellison ran her in a listed race second time out. At 33/1, with the excellent Raul Da Silva booked and claiming 3lb, she looks overpriced.

Profit & loss: day: -16.00 / month: +42.24 / year: +175.44

Tuesday 13th August 2013

Just one race of interest today.

5.05 Worcester

Just A Whisper 1pt each-way @ 16/1 (Bet Victor, Ladbrokes, William Hill, Independents, get guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP

Robber Stone 1pt each-way @ 20/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP

With the favourite having been pulled up last time out and not looking a really good jumper, and the second favourite having finished behind the likes of Cash Injection and Arte Del Calcio when beaten seven lengths on his best hurdles start, this looks a race to get stuck into in terms of betting against the top two.

Just a Whisper has one really decent run to her name, behind Loyaute at Newton Abbot at the end of March. She was the only one to challenge the leader on the home turn, and paid for her exertions, eventually fading into fourth. She was keen during the race, but travelled in the manner of a horse with ability, also jumping well. Her effort was not reproduced next time out but she ran better than the formbook suggests, a jumping error eventually costing her any chance. She has been off since, but a mark of OR92 should not be beyond her and if her trainer has her ready, she is no 16/1 shot. She has probably had some wind problems - the tongue tie used last time is retained - but I have a lot of respect for trainer Keiran Burke and if he has found the key to her wind problems, she is handicapped to win this.

Robber Stone represents a trainer with an interestingly strong record in Novice Handicap Hurdles. He was noted being given a very quiet ride on both his recent runs, and he has now qualified for a mark of OR82. He has hinted on both recent runs that he is better than that mark, and if he responds well to a first time hood (has been keen during his races) he should run better than his odds suggest. A reasonably big field and fair pace will help him, and the booking of a jockey who excels with hold up horses and has ridden plenty of winners around here takes the eye.

Profit & loss: day: -6.00 / month: +58.24 / year: +191.44

Monday 12th August 2013

Just one selection for today.

3.15 Wolverhampton Alquimia 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 10/1 (Bet 365, VC Bet, William Hill, Racebets.com, independents, guaranteed)

Represents Ed Dunlop's stable, who are in fine form at present and boast a 19% strike rate with juveniles at this track over the last five seasons. Jockey Silvestre De Sousa has an 18% strike rate at the track, and owner Sir Robert Ogden seems to have a liking for Dunstall Park; his horses have a 4/10 40% strike rate here over the past five seasons. The selection made a nice debut in a strong Newmarket maiden, but looked a little one paced and was unable to quicken on the surface. The good to firm conditions may not have suited this daughter of Medicean, and given her pedigree I would expect much better on artificial surfaces. She has a strong U.S.A. influence on her dam's side, and Medicean's progeny have a 14% strike rate at this track. She probably has the favourite Simple Magic to beat, but that rival has looked a little quirky so far, failing to finish her race first time out, and plenty keen enough before running on strongly second time out. At the prices I'm happy to take her on and the selection looks good value touching a double figure price.

Profit & loss: day: -6.00 / month: +64.24 / year: +197.44

Saturday 10th August 2013

Just one race of interest this afternoon. We may have an evening bet released before 5.30pm.

2.20 Haydock

Vasily 1.5pts each-way @ 28/1 (Bet 365, Stan James, Betpack.com, Coral, guaranteed)

Tepmokea 1.5pts each-way @ 33/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Not the greatest Saturday afternoon's action but this looks a really interesting handicap. There are a few in here I'd be inclined to oppose, among them Educate, Danchai, Gabrial The Great and Tahaamah who all looks a bit short. I'm inclined to take on the solid looking pair at the top of the market with two each-way punts at big prices. Sennockian Star looks solid, as does Chancery but as a Street Cry the latter will want rattling fast ground and I'm not sure if the rain Haydock had earlier in the week will have taken the "road" out of it. 

Vasily is selected based on his run behind Sennockian Star last time out. He had plenty of use made of him and travelled best to the two pole, but was ultimately well beaten. A good 7lb claimer takes the ride this afternoon and if he is able to show a bit more restraint, I think there is every chance of him running into a place at least - he remains progressive and has been a model of consistency since he found his form this season.

Tepmokea is forgiven his poor run at Goodwood, and supported at a huge price at a track he likes. He went very close in the Old Newton Cup here and based on past evidence remains well handicapped off OR92. Ten furlongs might be sharp enough for him these days, and stall 15 isn't ideal, but these negatives are definitely factored into the price and with Richard Kingscote, who rides this track really well, in the plate, he looks very much overpriced.

Profit & loss: day: -6.00 / month: +70.24 / year: +203.44

Friday 9th August 2013

No joy this afternoon.

Just one for tonight.

8.20 Newmarket Mezzotint 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 15/2 (Bet 365, Paddy Power, William Hill, Independents, get guaranteed)

An interesting sprint and although Elusive Fame has the plum draw and Ryan Moore on board, I find it interesting she still trades at 6/1 generally - she doesn't look that solid a favourite to me and is probably worth taking on. Mezzotint looks an improving horse for Marco Botti, and his form from June over this course and distance entitles him to the utmost respect here. He was ridden by an inexperienced pilot that day (who does not claim), but was given a nice ride although he was never going to win. He finished fast and a cursory glance through the form reveals it to be a strong race indeed: although the winner and second have both disappointed since, they had been really progressive this season up until that point. Whozthecat in fourth went on to win the Rockingham, Ireland's biggest flat sprint handicap of the summer. Doctor Parkes beat Joe Packet (opposes our selection here) at Sandown. The sixth and eighth have run well in defeat, and the twelfth was only beaten a nose by Tropics at York a couple of weeks ago. Mezzotint was put up only a pound for that performance, and has since been dropped back to OR92 having failed to trouble the judge in two valuable handicaps. They were over seven furlongs, though, and his running style suggests six may ultimately be his trip. He looks very well handicapped to me, and if there is any pace in the race at all he should be bang there at the finish. 15/2 is too big.

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Afternoon Bets:

A great day for us yesterday and how about the S.P. on Heaven's Edge? Some of you have been in touch to remark on Sofia's Number One winning at 20/1, after I had remarked on how progressive she looked - it certainly would have been nice to have backed him, but it looked a strong contest. We had a really good day for ourselves and well deserved too.

Two for this afternoon, possible evening bets released before 5.30pm.

1pt win double on today's selections - get guaranteed odds.

2.00 Musselburgh Split Rock 5pts win @ 9/4 (Bet 365, Bet Victor, Paddy Power, Independents, guaranteed)

Has been running in smarter company than this, and looks well worth a punt at the odds that he improves for the step up in trip. He is certainly bred for it, and he hasn't been disgraced in any of his recent starts. The Fahey horse has been well punted but I'm not sure she will have the tactical speed where required here. The selection is bred to be better than his current handicap mark of OR78, and I think any sort of improvement should see him record a second career victory.

2.20 Lingfield Blue Mood 4pts win @ 7/2 (Paddy Power, 10/3 Stan James, Betpack.com, 3/1 generally guaranteed)

Was really impressive first time up and probably doesn't deserve to be outsider of the three principals here. I don't think she really let herself down on the surface last time out and it is interesting her sire's progeny have a better record on the all weather than turf from a large sample size. she also has some influence for artificial surface on her dam's side, and of the three principals I expect her to improve most for the surface. Her action suggests as much, and a first time hood is applied to settle her (was on edge last time at the start). I'm not a big fan of the jockey, but that's factored into the price to my mind and I think she should be more like 9/4 here.

Profit & loss: day: -17.00 / month: +76.24 / year: +209.44

Thursday 8th August 2013

Two selections for Thursday.

4.55 Southwell Imaginary World 3pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 5/1 (VC Bet, guaranteed, 9/2 generally guaranteed) - WON @ 11/2

A really interesting fillies' handicap, and I'll start with potential negatives about other runners which might explain the each-way staking. Mesmerized has never raced at Southwell and is drawn in the coffin box stall 1 - the bias against this draw is worst over six furlongs, but it is equally bad on hot summer days when the surface is riding slow. It simply isn't where you want to be and the favourite may not run her race as a result. My New Angel has definitely improved and shouldn't be judged on her high head carriage. However, she races without headgear to protect her eyes here and I'm not sure if she'll enjoy the experience despite having won here before (in a small field - has also underperformed here). Kwanto has been tipped by Hugh Taylor, and on breeding should enjoy the surface but equally has never raced here and looks risky. Emperatriz has never raced here and may not run her race. Ishiamiracle is one I have down as having won here, but in a weak race, and she may not enjoy the surface as much as others.

Enchanted Dream and Una Bella Cosa are both proven here to an extent, but on current form it would take a leap of faith to support them, likewise Marina Ballerina.

Imaginary World on the other hand is proven here, is in good form, well handicapped, and represents a stable whose horses have been running well this summer and even improving despite advancing years, in the case of Sleepy Blue Ocean. The selection is probably better on artificial surfaces and ran a really nice race in third at Nottingham last time behind a progressive three year old. She was keen early doors and I find the step back in trip interesting - she is drawn wide here but stays no problem, so she may sit handy behind the two likely pacesetters Una Bella Cosa and Ishiamiracle. A good 3lb claimer is the icing on the cake, and her last run here was a second to Sofia's Number One, who is really progressive on this surface. There isn't anything of that ilk in here and I would suggest she is an excellent each-way bet at the prices.

6.20 Chepstow Heaven's Edge 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 7/1 (Boylesports, SeanieMac.com, Paddy Power, BetByrne.com, Independents, guaranteed) - WON @ 12/1

A full sister to Rex Imperator, who won the Stewards' Cup on Saturday and goes well once the ground isn't too fast. Heaven's Edge has been off since May as a result of the ground, but the form of her second run behind Championship is extremely strong, particularly in the context of a race like this. She was up against Royal Ascot winner Berkshire, Hannon's good 2yo Championship (who won), and some other good horses, and was arguably last off the bridle. It is fairly clear she is a sprinter through and through, and if she is ready to go tonight she looks really good value against two horses who look, for all intents and purposes, slower. The jockey booking looks a bit unusual but he did ride a winner the other day. Henry Candy's filly should set the pace here and I expect Heaven's Edge to be bang there at the finish - it will take a good horse to beat her provided she is 100% fit.

Profit & loss: day: +79.30 / month: +93.24 / year: +226.44

Wednesday 7th August 2013

A nice winner this afternoon.

One bet for this evening.

7.00 Kempton Crown Pleasure 5pts win @ 11/4 (Generally, get guaranteed)

A fair looking fillies' maiden at first glance, but many of these have question marks about them on form and/or are bred to appreciate further in time. Crown Pleasure holds a Group 2 entry, has come up trumps with the draw, and arguably looks overpriced at 11/4. The selection ran in a Newmarket maiden first time out, and was green to post and during the race. The penny really dropped inside the final furlong and she began passing horses hand over fist. The quality of opposition looked good and it didn't look like cheap headway. The question mark this evening is her ability to handle polytrack, but her sire Royal Applause's stats, and her trainers, are fine in that regard and she is taken to open her account before going on to better things.

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Afternoon Bets:

See The Sun saved our stake last night, looking like the winner a furlong out but taking each-way money only in the end with third place.

Two for this afternoon and possible evening bets.

1pt each-way double on today's selections, 7/2 and 11/4 generally - use a bookmaker who offers guaranteed prices in multiples. - E/W place double

2.10 Newcastle Lily Rules 4pts win @ 7/2 (Generally, get guaranteed) - WON @ 9/2

Admirable filly who looks game as a pebble and whose form is stacking up very well. She has had a break since her last run but I would suggest that is probably by design, with an autumn campaign on slower ground in mind. She is top weight here, but has the best form in the race by some way in my view, and my feeling is she may progress to a mark of OR90+ in time and perhaps even listed class. She was unlucky at Haydock last time, with the gaps coming too late, but the fast ground probably didn't suit her either and she returns to the scene of her victory today at rain softened Newcastle. Bookmakers will probably take her on with the ground as it is, but I think this is a case of her being much the best horse in the race unless anything improves dramatically, and at the prices I think she is good value - you have to think she would be 2/1 is Richard Hannon trained her.

2.50 Brighton Supersta 4pts win @ 11/4 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Made a really encouraging debut at Ascot last time out in a strong looking maiden (although the form is untested). The juveniles were running into a headwind that day, and the time was slow, so it was a very test for inexperienced horses. The selection represents a yard whose juveniles certainly aren't wound up first time out, but he showed a good attitude in boxing on well, running straight and true and really picking up towards the finish - in fact, he was in front of most (if not all) of the others around 100yds after the finish line, suggesting there was plenty left in the tank. He returns to the track ten days later and should have come on a bundle physically and mentally. The excellent Martin Harley rides, and I fancy him to get the better of the Godolphin trained favourite, who looks a little quirky. We'll also play today's selections in an each-way double.

Profit & loss: day: +9.94 / month: +13.94 / year: +147.14