York will be an absolute quagmire this afternoon following heavy overnight rain, throw your formbook out the window, it's biggest feet wins today.
2:05 Betfred City of York Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 7f
Switcher 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 12/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
Switcher is aptly named for today, given that she makes her debut for Richard Fahey having failed to make an impact with David O'Meara. She is by Whipper, whose progeny are very profitable to back on soft ground, and the form of her Ascot run last summer would suggest she handles conditions, although she did disappoint on heavy in Ireland. That run was too bad to be true and I wouldn't put it solely down to the ground. She is speculative at best here but many of these will not handle the conditions and if she does, she could be an early placepot buster for some as the outsider of six. She looks too big at 12/1 and should be backed each-way and win to small stakes.
2:40 Betfred Melrose Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 1m6f
2.40 York Havana Cooler 4pts win @ 7/2 (Generally, get guaranteed)
Havana Cooler is a big, heavy topped horse who looks a right powerhouse and is probably still well handicapped off OR93. I actually think he will end up as a Group horse, and the sight of him pulling aggressively for his head as Fallon tried to pull him up at Newmarket on his penultimate run marked him down as one to watch for me. He is forgiven his Goodwood third as I don't think he handled the track, and I think he can make amends today at a course that should suit him much better. Ryan Moore had a quieter day yesterday but I expect him to be back in the winners enclosure after this race. I am confident the horse will handle conditions having watched his soft ground second over a mile as a two year old.
3:15 Irish Thoroughbred Marketing Gimcrack Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) Cl1 6f
No account bet here but Parbold should enjoy conditions and might be good enough to win.
3:50 Betfred Ebor (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 1m6f
Ted Veale 4pts win @ 5/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
I'm not sure Tony Martin had Ted Veale as fit as he thought at Galway and he is forgiven the fact that he travelled best before emptying on heavy ground that day. He won during the week and the penalty got him into this race, and as a horse who will handle conditions well he is selected at a price which I think may collapse before the off. He is National Hunt bred, which I feel will give him an advantage in these conditions, and although a strict reading of the formbook says he isn't proven at the trip, he hasn't had many chances on the flat and is unexposed. I think the price is good value because many of these won't get home, and he can continue what has been an excellent summer for Tony Martin.
4:25 Julia Graves Roses Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 5f
Mecca's Angel 4pts win @ 9/4 (Generally, get guaranteed)
Again Mecca's Angel looks highly likely to appreciate the soft ground, where some of her rivals will not. Her pedigree and a look through her form suggests she has done well to get competitive at the likes of Hamilton on a faster surface, and she seems to have been campaigned with Autumn and winter in mind. Looking down through the race I don't see Excel's Beauty handling conditions and I'm surprised she has been left in. Hot Streak might be the biggest danger but 9/4 is still too big on the selection and there's every chance of an on course drift with these volatile juvenile markets.
5:00 Betfred The Bonus King Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 1m2f88y
No betting interest for us here, but Two For Two should handle conditions and continue a great week for the O'Meara team. Too short in this race for an account bet.
5:35 Qipco Future Stars Apprentice Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 5f
Normal Equilibrium skipped clear at Chester the only time he faced going with "soft" in the description, and he is a token choice for this sprint, but I won't be getting involved given the apparent draw bias towards high numbers yesterday and the messy looking shape to the race with more potential non runners.
Profit & loss: day: -15.00 / month: +63.50 / year: +196.69
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