I can't quite believe Joe Fanning didn't lead on Windhoek yesterday and I was screaming at the T.V. from an early stage, which is most unlike me as I try to remain emotionally distanced from my betting. Whether the horse was unbalanced early or something I don't know, but I think he should have won and it was a double bogey seeing our old friend Mont Ras land the spoils at 25/1.
Three selections for this afternoon.
1:55 Sky Bet Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 1m4f
Chancery 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 14/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) - WON
I have to admit that I wasn't aware York had a thunderstorm late last night - there was no mention of it on B.H.A. early this morning and satellite pics showed nothing from 2am onwards (they onyl go back 6hrs). Saying that, Chancery has plenty of form on good to soft and I actually think the fact that horses will be coming back to him might suit better. His stable are in fine form and the manner of his victory here on his penultimate start marked him down as quite a bit ahead of the handicapper in my view. He disappointed at Haydock, might that have been rock hard ground? I am prepared to forgive one bad run at double figure prices and if he runs his race I can't see him out of the places.
2:30 Weatherbys Hamilton Insurance Lonsdale Cup (British Champions Series) (Group 2) Cl1 2m88y
No betting interest here. Times Up hasn't fired this year but the reports Ed Dunlop has released have been positive and I was very impressed with the horse when he won this last year. He is obviously proven over course and distance as such, and the booking of Ryan Moore is always a bonus. He makes appeal at 9/2 for those looking for an interest.
3:05 Sky Bet Strensall Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m208y
No betting interest here. I think the filly Pavlosk has the best chance of winning, but that is reflected in odds of 15/8 best price.
3:40 Coolmore Nunthorpe Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) Cl1 5f
Slade Power 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 9/1 (Bet 365, Totesport, Boylesports, Seanie Mac, Betfred, Bet Victor, guaranteed)
Slade Power is a horse who has impressed me massively this season, his Group 3 win over Hamza last time out being a perfect prep for this race. He travels so well, and is generous off the bridle much in the manner of his star stablemate Sole Power. If anything I think Slade Power has more potential, and at this stage of his career I think he might have more speed too. He has a good draw in stall 9 and his sire Dutch Art's progeny have a notable 18% strike rate at this track. All in all I thought 9/1 was very generous, I wouldn't be reading anything into jockey bookings here and if the gaps come at the right time I think the selection must go very close.
4:20 Sky Bet Mobile Convivial Maiden Stakes Cl2 7f
Red Galileo 4pts win @ 9/4 (Generally, get guaranteed)
An interesting maiden, and while I think Ron Harris' Supersta deserves a black type mention and might be worth a saver to outrun massive odds, I think Red Galileo had a tremendous presence about him at Newmarket and looks a Group horse in the making. I think that Newmarket maiden was better than the Goodwood race featuring three of the market principals, so unless the Ryan newcomer is very special I make 9/4 about the selection a very good price. The bonus is a potential on course drift - this could go off 5/4fav or 3/1JF and still win. The ground would be a slight question mark but his profile appeals as very solid indeed and I'm a recent convert to the skills of his jockey Andrea Atzeni, who seems to have put his head down and worked very hard for the opportunities he is now deservedly getting.
4:55 Nationwide Accident Repair Services Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 1m
Shrimper Roo 1pt win, 1pt place @ Betfair SP
Nothing in here sticks out as especially well handicapped, and I'm inclined to take a chance at astronimical odds about Shrimper Roo causing a shock. He quite simply doesn't have as much to find on the principals as the market suggests, and his fast finishing third over five furlongs at this track behind Moviesta in May has worked out really well - that was a red hot 3yo sprint handicap that has thrown up good horses. The selection hasn't set the world on fire since but he is proven on soft ground and has picked up a race as recently as last month, the last time he raced on ground without "soft" in the description. It wouldn't be unlike Tim Easterby to have one go in at a big price at this meeting, and although he needs to improve for the step up in trip, I just think this price is plain wrong - 25/1 is more like my idea of his true odds. You'll get four places paid on Betfair, and the advice is a small investment win and place at the exchange SP.
Profit & loss: day: +35.50 / month: +78.50 / year: +211.69
No comments:
Post a Comment