Just one for tonight.
8.20 Newmarket Mezzotint 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 15/2 (Bet 365, Paddy Power, William Hill, Independents, get guaranteed)
An interesting sprint and although Elusive Fame has the plum draw and Ryan Moore on board, I find it interesting she still trades at 6/1 generally - she doesn't look that solid a favourite to me and is probably worth taking on. Mezzotint looks an improving horse for Marco Botti, and his form from June over this course and distance entitles him to the utmost respect here. He was ridden by an inexperienced pilot that day (who does not claim), but was given a nice ride although he was never going to win. He finished fast and a cursory glance through the form reveals it to be a strong race indeed: although the winner and second have both disappointed since, they had been really progressive this season up until that point. Whozthecat in fourth went on to win the Rockingham, Ireland's biggest flat sprint handicap of the summer. Doctor Parkes beat Joe Packet (opposes our selection here) at Sandown. The sixth and eighth have run well in defeat, and the twelfth was only beaten a nose by Tropics at York a couple of weeks ago. Mezzotint was put up only a pound for that performance, and has since been dropped back to OR92 having failed to trouble the judge in two valuable handicaps. They were over seven furlongs, though, and his running style suggests six may ultimately be his trip. He looks very well handicapped to me, and if there is any pace in the race at all he should be bang there at the finish. 15/2 is too big.
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Afternoon Bets:
A great day for us yesterday and how about the S.P. on Heaven's Edge? Some of you have been in touch to remark on Sofia's Number One winning at 20/1, after I had remarked on how progressive she looked - it certainly would have been nice to have backed him, but it looked a strong contest. We had a really good day for ourselves and well deserved too.
Two for this afternoon, possible evening bets released before 5.30pm.
1pt win double on today's selections - get guaranteed odds.
2.00 Musselburgh Split Rock 5pts win @ 9/4 (Bet 365, Bet Victor, Paddy Power, Independents, guaranteed)
Has been running in smarter company than this, and looks well worth a punt at the odds that he improves for the step up in trip. He is certainly bred for it, and he hasn't been disgraced in any of his recent starts. The Fahey horse has been well punted but I'm not sure she will have the tactical speed where required here. The selection is bred to be better than his current handicap mark of OR78, and I think any sort of improvement should see him record a second career victory.
2.20 Lingfield Blue Mood 4pts win @ 7/2 (Paddy Power, 10/3 Stan James, Betpack.com, 3/1 generally guaranteed)
Was really impressive first time up and probably doesn't deserve to be outsider of the three principals here. I don't think she really let herself down on the surface last time out and it is interesting her sire's progeny have a better record on the all weather than turf from a large sample size. she also has some influence for artificial surface on her dam's side, and of the three principals I expect her to improve most for the surface. Her action suggests as much, and a first time hood is applied to settle her (was on edge last time at the start). I'm not a big fan of the jockey, but that's factored into the price to my mind and I think she should be more like 9/4 here.
Profit & loss: day: -17.00 / month: +76.24 / year: +209.44
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