Glorious Goodwood 2013 - Day Five

We continued to live of each way scraps yesterday, with Deeds Not Words running a place at 16/1 (advised) which more or less continued the theme of the week. I must say he was given a very good ride by Raul Da Silva, who should be considered a positive booking on Goodwood's straight course in particular. One decent winner would still have us ahead for the week, but we've had some rotten luck over the week and I'm hoping this won't be our first big flat meeting to finish at a loss. I think we've a strong hand this afternoon and all things being equal, I'd be hopeful of at least one going in.

Chester and Newbury don't make much appeal tomorrow, and we'll have no bets. Our next e-mail will be Monday afternoon for a possible late bet on Monday evening.

2:05 Robins Farm Racing Stewards´ Sprint Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 6f

Milly's Gift 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 33/1 (Bet Victor, Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 25/1 generally guaranteed)

Clive Cox has a good record in this race and I find the booking of the excellent William Buick for Milly's Gift intriguing. She is apparently well drawn (more on that in the Stewards Cup write up) but I'm not so sure the draw makes much difference. She is a three year old filly against older horses, but I think she has excuses for her two turf runs thus far - the ground was rattling fast on both occasions and I don't think she enjoys that. The heavy overnight rain has changed the going to genuine good ground, and I think that will suit this daughter of Trade Fair perfectly. She is drawn around some good horses and I really like the way she travelled into her recent Newmarket race before she failed to quicken on the surface. She is very much overpriced at the current odds, she strikes me as a horse who could be very well handicapped indeed.

2:40 RAC Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 1m4f

Not a race I have an interest in. Pether's Moon looks a fair price at 6/1 for those who want to get involved.

3:15 Markel Insurance Nassau Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m1f192y

Integral 4pts win @ 11/2 (Generally, get guaranteed)

I always respect Sir Michael Stoute's representatives upped in class, and I think it speaks volumes for his opinion of this filly that she is entered here. He was glowing about her after her Sandown win, and I have to say of those entered here she looks the most likely to benefit for the step up in trip. She will probably be held up, and the fact that Ryan Moore is in the saddle in a real bonus - he has been excellent this week in his usual understated way. I think Sky Lantern got a right leathering last time and may not reproduce her form today, and I'm really not sure about Just The Judge or Hot Snap. It leaves me thinking the 11/2 about Integral is excellent value.

3:50 Robins Farm Racing Stewards´ Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 6f

Rex Imperator 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 16/1 (Generally - get 5 places guaranteed with most bookmakers) - WON

Prodigality 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 25/1 (Generally, most bookmakers pay 5 places guaranteed)

I've lost count over the years of the amount of times I've backed horses based on a draw bias only for something on the apparent unfavourable side of the track to win (sometimes handily). Babodana's 20/1 win in the 2004 Lincoln was the first time I experienced this annoying phenomenon, Fonthill Road (16/1) winning the Ayr Gold Cup followed two years later, so unless it's Lingfield's 5f turf course, or Chester, I tend to put pace ahead of apparent bias. For that reason Rex Imperator looks a knocking bet here at 16/1 for a stable who won this race in 2008. He should get a good tow into the race from Whozthecat, and I really don't think there's that much in the draw - it's more that near side runners are tacking across leading to a breakdown in pace. I fully realise that the jockeys on high drawn horses might be idiotic and tack across here (our pilot Callan has admittedly been responsible for a couple of really poor showings in sprints recently) but if they decide to follow Whozthecat and stay near side, the selection looks the best of these based on his form with Tropics and might be good enough.

The overnight rain definitely brings Prodigality into this from a low draw. His prominent run style is perfect for this contest, and the rain will blunt the finishing speed of the flashy hold up merchants. The selection has loads of course form, and the booking of Tom Queally is a positive. Plenty of leading contenders are drawn around him, and I expect him to outperform odds that underestimate his chance.

4:25 NatWest Ahead For Business EBF Maiden Stakes Cl2 7f

A bit of a minefield with so many unraced horses. That said, Oriental Relation might give those interested a sporting run for their money, each-way at 25/1+.

5:00 Fairmont Nursery Handicap Cl2 7f

Homestretch 2pts win @ 16/1 (Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 14/1 generally guaranteed)

Rizal Park 2pts win @ 12/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Homestretch represents the Channon stable, who had Deeds Not Words run really well in yesterday's nursery. His debut run was really impressive, it is hard to know what he beat but a step up to seven furlongs can only improve him based on pedigree and run style. I really like Martin Harley, particularly on Goodwood's round course, he tends to have horses in the right place and simplifies everything. 16/1 is very fair. Rizal Park might be better than his run at Ascot, where his jockey had knitting trouble in the final furlong. Watch the replay for a right laugh - joking aside, Thomas Brown is usually very good and had a mare that day. The Balding stable did win this race two years ago, though, and I think Rizal Park is another certain to improve upped to seven furlongs. A double figure price is too big.

5:35 Telegraph Stakes (Handicap) Cl3 5f

Very little makes appeal here. Extrasolar will be backed if Milly's Gift runs well, though, and he looks to have the right credentials, 11/2 is fair.

Profit & loss: day: +22.00 / month: +4.00 / year: +137.20