We were down day one, up day two, and down day three, the margins aren't much as things stand but you have to feel we're due a turn of luck on the week?
1:55 Coutts Glorious Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m4f
No bet here. I have Masterstroke down as the likely winner and I think 9/4 is actually a fair price. I don't make a habit of betting in small field Group 3 events, though.
2:30 Bonhams Thoroughbred Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m
Another small field Group 3. Montiridge looks the most likely winner but I don't think there's much between him and Baltic Knight, who has been in fine form, and the latter makes more appeal at a best price of 13/2.
3:05 Betfred Mile (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 1m
Windhoek 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 8/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
As the ground dries out, the draw becomes more important and of those drawn low here Windhoek is favoured. In fact, I think he represents a really good bet given the profile of horse and what it usually takes to win this race. His trainer farms the contest, and jockey Franny Norton was seen to good effect on Broughton yesterday, Like Broughton, Windhoek needs to improve on recent efforts but there is little doubt he is a Group class three year old, and he is forgiven his run at Sandown last time as he didn't appear to be comfortable on what was a very fast surface (today's ground will be more like genuine good to firm, which is far more forgiving). Ryan Moore eased him when his chance had gone, and I expect connections to benefit from that kindness this afternoon.
3:40 Betfred King George Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 5f
Jwala 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 16/1 (Bet 365, Skybet, Sporting Bet, Ladbrokes, BruceBetting.com, independents - all pay 4 places)
Many bookmakers are paying 4 places here , so make sure to shop around before getting your bets on. The first thing I ask myself with a Goodwood sprint is, "Has this horse been trained to run fast down a steep hill?", and with Jwala a course and distance winner, trained by the best current trainer of sprinters in the U.K., the answer is yes. I must say I'm a big fan of Heerat, whom Jwala defeated last time out. Heerat has gone on to win a strong Group 3 at Newbury posting a really good rating, suggesting the form is strong. Not only that, but Jwala race on her own without any cover for most of that contest, and I thought it was a most game performance to win. She arguably has a very good draw this afternoon, around some decent horses, and early pace such as Masamah and Moviesta. If Steve Drowne can simply sit in behind them, this should be a relatively simple ride, and I expect her to outrun odds which definitely underestimate her chances of winning.
4:15 Golf At Goodwood Nursery Handicap Cl2 6f
Deeds Not Words 1pt each-way @ 16/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP - E/W 4th
Double Czech 1pt each-way @ 20/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP
Owner George Materna craves Glorious Goodwood winners as Dermot Weld does winners at Galway, and there is little doubt his trainers have lined his horses up with this week in mind. It hasn't much gone to plan this week, though, with many of Amanda Perrett's string running below form. Sir Mike did run much better for her yesterday, though, and I am wary of judging the stable's form all a small sample size.
When looking for the winner of this, I found it pretty easy to identify Grecian and Major Crispies as my idea of the best horses. The handicap reflects that, though, and both have shown their quirks in my view - Grecian failing to settle last time (not sure about running downhill for a big horse like him either) and Major Crispies doesn't look massively resolute in the finish (perhaps still babyish). I began to look for horses who may have been "hidden", and sure enough it threw up the two Materna owned horses who may both have been laid out for this.
Deeds Not Words is trained by Mick Channon. He is quite well bred and cost 60,000GNS at the sales last October. A mark of OR72 looks very fair based on his Windsor second, but his run last time out dropped to a sharp 5 1/2 furlongs caught my eye. He was unable to lay up early, tenderly handled, running on strongly at the finish. It looked for all the world like a prep run to me and although there was an element of "cheap headway" about it, he was never really asked. Raul Da Silva is booked and takes 3lb off, expect him to ride to his draw as he did when winning the 5f sprint for the second year in a row on Tuesday. 16/1 is too big.
Double Czech has had the opposite preparation - running over seven furlongs when six looks his ideal. He is drawn 22 of 22 and represents the Perrett stable, with the excellent Franny Norton a positive booking off a low weight. He patently didn't stay at Epsom last time, but handled the course fine and again wasn't really asked to get competitive under a sleepy looking Pat Dobbs. He cost 55,000GNS at the sales last October, is a half brother to the aforementioned Baltic Knight (rated OR111) and there is a feeling he is in lightly off OR70 here too - 20/1 is taking a real chance in my view. We'll back both selections each-way and win.
4:50 Betfred TV Oak Tree Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 7f
No interest for us here. At the prices, Pavlosk makes a limited amount of appeal win only, current best of 9/2 in two places.
5:25 Betfred Mobile Lotto Stakes (Handicap) Cl3
Again no bet for us here. Goodwood Mirage makes some appeal at 7/2fav, and he appeals win only for those looking to get involved.
Profit & loss: day: -11.00 / month: -18.00 / year: +115.20
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