Glorious Goodwood 2013 - Day Two

An unlucky start yesterday all told. Three races of interest today as regards account bets.

1:55 UBS Goodwood Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 2m5f CH4

Lieutenant Miller 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 6/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) - E/W 2nd

This looks akin to a class drop for Lieutenant Miller, who is a strong stayer and probably did plenty enough to soon last time out at Royal Ascot where he was keen and had no cover early on. He was ultimately beaten by Well Sharp and Tiger Cliff, but there doesn't seem to be anything of their ilk in this line up and the selection appeals at 6/1. He has been put up only 2lb in the handicap for that run, which was his first since April, and he might enjoy the ground today with a little bit of cut in it too. His trainer Nicky Henderson has won this race twice in the last ten years, and with a possible class edge here, the selection is recommended each-way with four places being paid. Tom Queally is a very positive booking.

2:30 Neptune Investment Management Gordon Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m4f

Testudo 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 14/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

I have to say I totally fell for this little grey when I seen him at Sandown. He is all heart and guts, and battled his way to a maiden win over ten furlongs in a strong maiden that day, over a trip short enough for him on breeding. He excelled himself stepped up in trip at the July meeting, where the ground might have been quick for him and the race itself was run at a ridiculous crawl. That was only his third career start, and for a stayer to post an RPR100 performance so early in a career is very promising in my view. He handled Sandown particularly well and Goodwood, as a similar switchback right handed track, should be perfect for him. The ground should be ideal as should the twelve furlongs, and I would hope Keiren Fallon gets him near the front early enough. The selection has to improve, but Excess Knowledge needs to prove he stays the trip and that's not cast iron in my view and he looks underpriced. I want to see Testudo get in a battle coming up the hill - I have a feeling that if he does, he'll either win or go down all guns blazing against a top class rival. He looks overpriced at 14/1 and I expect him to get the better of Havana Beat at least, who finished ahead of him last time. It is interesting Brian Meehan enters him here, as I feel he has another strong candidate in this division this year, with Great Hall.

3:05 Qipco Sussex Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) Cl1 1m

No account bet here, watch the race and enjoy it. For what it's worth, I think there are worse 11/10 shots than Dawn Approach, who I expect to confirm form with Toronado. So much went wrong for him last time, including his pacemaker's failure to ensure an even pace, and he still won, coming off the back of a less than ideal prep. I expect him to win this but it could be very tight.

3:40 Veuve Clicquot Vintage Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 7f 

Lanark 3pts win @ 8/1 (Bet 365, Stan James, Betpack.com, William Hill, guaranteed)

Mark Johnston has won this race twice in the last ten years, and given his strength with staying two year olds this season (seems to have a particularly good bunch) Lanark is selected as overpriced here. He improved to win at Newbury last time out, looks to be physically imposing and should continue to progress with every run. He has an experience edge on some of these and might even show up today fitter than some of the others given that he has been busier. Expect De Sousa to bounce him out and try to make all, I don't think he'll lack for heart in the finish and it will take a very good horse to beat him in my view.

4:15 Markel Insurance Maiden Fillies´ Stakes Cl2 6f

No bet here with many of the newcomers making appeal on pedigree. For those at the races, Fashion Fund represents a stable who have won this twice in the last ten years, and she makes plenty of appeal on paper. They had a good newcomer win at Newbury recently with another filly J Wonder, who was not backed, and she makes some each-way appeal at 18/1 best price.

4:50 British Stallion Studs Turf Club EBF Fillies´ Stakes (Handicap) Cl3 1m1f

No bet here, but the ground won't bother Eastern Destiny and she makes speculative each-way appeal at 18/1.

5:25 Harwoods Racing Club Handicap (Sponsored by Harwoods Group) Cl3

Magic City 3pts win @ 7/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) - WON

Nenge Mboku 2pts win @ 14/1 (Coral, guaranteed, 12/1 generally guaranteed)

Magic City's win here under Willie Twiston Davies really caught my eye, he looked to really enjoy the course and finished full of running. I would suggest he might just be better than handicap class and if he gets the breaks from a very wide stall today, he could take the beating. Richard Hughes is peerless around here and 7/1 is fair.

I'm glad we took a guaranteed price on Nenge Mboku, who has drifted markedly since last night. I thought the 12/1 was value originally, but we all get these things wrong sometimes! Even though his form recently has been in poor small field races, I think he has grown loads in confidence and his strong travelling hold up style will be ideal for this track. Pat Cosgrave knows him really well at this stage, and I think he may just cause a minor upset for a stable whose horses are running well, including at this meeting.

Profit & loss: day: +12.00 / month: +4.69 / year: +133.20