Saturday 17th August 2013

A very busy Saturday afternoon for us, with our largest outlay in a while - those days just come along every so often, as do the blank ones.

1.55 Doncaster Imaginary World 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 7/1 (Generally, guaranteed) - E/W 2nd

I mentioned last week when we backed Imaginary World that her trainer was getting improvement out of seemingly exposed older horses all summer, and indeed the selection achieved a lifetime best RPR when winning at Southwell. She has been put up only 2lb for that, and I feel there is definitely some improvement to come. The question mark is the turf surface, but she wasn't much good at winning on either surface before and that victory might have done her confidence good. Connections seem to have agreed on the seven furlong trip as her optimum, which interests me given that it is a specialist distance. Doncaster suits hold up horses, and if this claimer can execute similar tactics to last week, I think she has the beating of a moderate looking field.

2.40 Newbury Aiken 4pts win @ 4/1 (Bet 365, Totesport, Betfred, Bet Victor, guaranteed)

Recent entries would suggest Aiken has been in fast work for a while, and with the rain now hitting Newbury again I think he is value at 4/1 to beat what looks an inferior field. He was extremely progressive in staying contests last season and can probably improve again as a five year old. His trainer's string are in top form now and should enjoy a strong finish to the season. William Buick is off to ride in the Arlington Million on Grandeur later tonight, and while Rab Havlin is not as good a pilot, he can get the job done.

3.30 Ripon 

Pearl Ice 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 9/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Summerinthecity 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 12/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

I've adopted the traditional no-nonsense approach of backing one from either side for this decent renewal of the Great St. Wilfred. Pearl Ice represents a stable having a fine season and I fancy her to get the better of Spinatrix on the far side, on what might be slightly faster ground than when they met a few weeks back. I think she is well drawn in stall 3 (I mean, with the far side taken in isolation) and this would appear to have been the plan for a while. Summerinthecity appeared to miss Glorious Goodwood for this race and that says a lot, because his trainer loves a Goodwood winner. This will have been the plan and his York form behind Tropics looks very strong. He looks top dog on the near side, and don't rule out Dr. Red Eye running better than his odds suggest - on a quieter day, we might have had a small each-way interest in him.

3.40 Doncaster Yair Hill 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 18/1 (Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 16/1 generally guaranteed)

I'm not too sure Smarty Socks is well handicapped these days and I'm keen to take both he and Lutine Bell, who doesn't seem to get the job done, with something at a bigger price. I can count around four of these who might not even give their best running, which makes Yair Hill a really decent each-way proposition at the prices. He transferred from Kevin Ryan recently having won for that trainer at Thirsk earlier this season. I am not sure of the circumstances, but he is in the same ownership. The selection hung on fast ground last time, but Doncaster has been watering and I think he may find the surface more to his liking here. There is also some pace in the race, which I think will suit, and most of the major jockeys are elsewhere - Doncaster is a very difficult track at which to judge the pace correctly. An exception is Freddie Tylicki, who rides this track extremely well and is an eye catching booking - his 18% strike rate here returning a level stakes profit of +21.05 really adds appeal to this selection. The price looks far too big and although we need to excuse his most recent runs, he still looks progressive when things drop right for him.

Profit & loss: day: -15.25 / month: +43.99 / year: +177.19