Corporal Maddox landed us some nice place money last night, eventually sent off 25/1. We're due a big priced handicap winner.
We have a few interests.
2.20 York Sirius Prospect 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 10/1 (Totesport, Betfred, VC Bet, guaranteed, 9/1 generally guaranteed) - WON
Seemed to have lost his way somewhat, but it might just be he doesn't have the speed for six furlongs anymore and he has also been overfaced a couple of times, for example in the Golden Jubilee last time out. He has dropped to a mark of OR102, and now connections seem to be setting him a more realistic task. The last time he ran off this mark in a handicap, he lost loads of ground over six furlongs here and still finished third, a really eye catching performance. His habit of rearing seems to have disappeared and he looks a happier horse on recent starts, running on strongly in a good Windsor listed race won by Boomerang Bob over six furlongs on his penultimate run. He loves York, and I think the step up to seven furlongs should see him travel like a dream here. Most of these are inferior to him, and although he carries a big weight and isn't a huge horse, he has carried 9-0 plus to victory on five occasions. Weight tends to matter less on quicker ground, and although it is perceived that he needs soft ground, I don't really buy that. The booking of Robert Winston, who rode him at Windsor, is a positive, and the stable are in good form, 3/11 27% +18.50 lsp for July.
3.15 Ascot
Shamaal Nibras 1pt each-way @ 28/1 (Generally, get 5 places guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP)
Head Of Steam 1pt each-way @ 33/1 (Generally, get 5 places guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP)
A really interesting race. Obviously we're looking for underestimated horses here, but for this race I also want a seven furlong specialist who is relatively unexposed. Shamaal Nibraas ran a really strong race at Royal Ascot when he was stranded in the middle of the track, sticking on for third behind Lightning Cloud. He won't mind any rain (some is forecast, and the track has been watered), and he also tends to race prominently - something that interests me because I don't see much pace in the race. Added to that, he looks well handicapped and is drawn in stall three - he has hung right on two occasions in his career and if some of them go towards the far rail tomorrow, it might be to his liking.
Head Of Steam appeals as really well handicapped, and has been put away for a late summer campaign since winning impressively at Goodwood in May. His June run at Salisbury came against a pace bias, and he was given the kid gloves treatment when his chance had gone. An interview with his owner suggested his whole season would be geared around Goodwood, you'd imagine they're taking this in on the way and fancy their chances. I think he is very well handicapped, and it is really interesting Luke Morris comes down from York for the ride (could have rode Prodigality up there).
7.30 Lingfield Hero's Story 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 6/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
Another trained by Amanda Perrett. The selection is very unexposed at tonight's trip, one he is bred to enjoy. He ran a much better race than the finishing position suggests at Sandown last time out in June, against much better horses. His sire is getting some good horses on the all weather and the current strike rate of 18% winners on the all weather from a small sample size is interesting. A mark of OR61 looks to underestimate even what the horse achieved in three maiden runs, and a chance is taken on his being ready to win this moderate enough looking handicap on his way to better things.
Profit & loss: day: +23.00 / month: +9.89 / year: +138.40
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