5.20 Ascot
Judge 'N' Jury 1pt each-way @ 20/1 (VC Bet, Ladbrokes, William Hill, Independents, guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP
Face The Problem 1pt each-way @ 14/1 (VC Bet, guaranteed, 12/1 generally guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP
Overnight rain has changed the going at Ascot to Good all over, and with recent watering having taken place, I would suggest those with softer ground form (but not necessarily dependent on a bog) will come to the fore. I think the race has an interesting shape - all the pace, and indeed many of the good horses, are drawn low and I'm taking a chance that the race will develop around them. The pace horses are Zero Money and Judge 'N' Jury, in stall one and two respectively. Ahtoug, Barnet Fair, Face The Problem and favourite Dutch Masterpiece are all drawn around here and should get a good tow into the race.
Judge 'N' Jury is hard to resist here, as a previous winner of the race who is beginning to look well handicapped. He is a tough nut over five furlongs on rain softened ground, and there is every chance he'll break the hearts of the finishers with his grind-it-out style here. He ran well in a Curragh Group 3 last time out on ground that would have been far too quick for him, and he is underestimated in the market here at 20/1.
Face The Problem represents Jamie Osborne. He caught the eye travelling strongly at Musselburgh on his penultimate run without getting anything like a clear run, and he is better than his finishing position suggests. He was held up detached in rear at this course last time out on lightning fast ground when the front runners did not come back, and Jamie Spencer realised his mistake and wisely eased the horse when it became apparent he had no chance of winning. James Doyle rides today and you'd imagine he'll sit mid pack rather than holding him up in rear. The selection has loads of soft ground form so it's a case of the more rain, the better for his chances. He is another who looks well handicapped and I think he remains progressive as a five year old.
Profit & loss: day: -6.00 / month: +3.89 / year: +132.40
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