Two selections for Thursday.
4.55 Southwell Imaginary World 3pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 5/1 (VC Bet, guaranteed, 9/2 generally guaranteed) - WON @ 11/2
A really interesting fillies' handicap, and I'll start with potential negatives about other runners which might explain the each-way staking. Mesmerized has never raced at Southwell and is drawn in the coffin box stall 1 - the bias against this draw is worst over six furlongs, but it is equally bad on hot summer days when the surface is riding slow. It simply isn't where you want to be and the favourite may not run her race as a result. My New Angel has definitely improved and shouldn't be judged on her high head carriage. However, she races without headgear to protect her eyes here and I'm not sure if she'll enjoy the experience despite having won here before (in a small field - has also underperformed here). Kwanto has been tipped by Hugh Taylor, and on breeding should enjoy the surface but equally has never raced here and looks risky. Emperatriz has never raced here and may not run her race. Ishiamiracle is one I have down as having won here, but in a weak race, and she may not enjoy the surface as much as others.
Enchanted Dream and Una Bella Cosa are both proven here to an extent, but on current form it would take a leap of faith to support them, likewise Marina Ballerina.
Imaginary World on the other hand is proven here, is in good form, well handicapped, and represents a stable whose horses have been running well this summer and even improving despite advancing years, in the case of Sleepy Blue Ocean. The selection is probably better on artificial surfaces and ran a really nice race in third at Nottingham last time behind a progressive three year old. She was keen early doors and I find the step back in trip interesting - she is drawn wide here but stays no problem, so she may sit handy behind the two likely pacesetters Una Bella Cosa and Ishiamiracle. A good 3lb claimer is the icing on the cake, and her last run here was a second to Sofia's Number One, who is really progressive on this surface. There isn't anything of that ilk in here and I would suggest she is an excellent each-way bet at the prices.
A full sister to Rex Imperator, who won the Stewards' Cup on Saturday and goes well once the ground isn't too fast. Heaven's Edge has been off since May as a result of the ground, but the form of her second run behind Championship is extremely strong, particularly in the context of a race like this. She was up against Royal Ascot winner Berkshire, Hannon's good 2yo Championship (who won), and some other good horses, and was arguably last off the bridle. It is fairly clear she is a sprinter through and through, and if she is ready to go tonight she looks really good value against two horses who look, for all intents and purposes, slower. The jockey booking looks a bit unusual but he did ride a winner the other day. Henry Candy's filly should set the pace here and I expect Heaven's Edge to be bang there at the finish - it will take a good horse to beat her provided she is 100% fit.
Profit & loss: day: +79.30 / month: +93.24 / year: +226.44
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