7.15 Kempton Full Day 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 12/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
It seems a long time ago that we had such fun backing Ralph Beckett's overpriced two year olds at all sorts of prices, and the markets have well and truly cottoned on to this excellent trainer at this stage. His filly in this maiden looks overpriced, however, and it gives us an opportunity to reacquaint our affection for the stable. The selection made a really pleasing debut at Salisbury, travelling well and turning in widest of all, staying on under hands and heels with her early efforts perhaps taking a toll. Nothing went right at Ascot last time out, when she was trapped wide without cover and right up the front racing into a headwind, in a race that looked a bit all over the shop to me. She is given another chance, especially on this surface - she has a good pedigree for it and early signs are that her sire, a son of Dansili (whose progeny do well on polytrack), will do well with polytrack horses (currently 2/5 in the U.K. on this surface). There are all weather winners on the dam's side, and this filly looked quite an athletic sort on debut - the type who should do well around here. A wide draw has to be overcome, but if she gets some cover I think she's good enough to win this with a fast late surge. The excellent Jim Crowley rides.
9.15 Kempton
King Bertie 3pts win @ 11/1 (VC Bet, guaranteed, 10/1 generally guaranteed)
Midnight Feast 2pts win @ 28/1 (Bet Victor, Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 25/1 generally guaranteed)
I thought I'd take a couple of flyers here at prices, because this race looks overloaded with pace. I count at least five who like to make the running, and unless they all take back, I can see this being a truly run affair. That might bring the finishers into it, and although Eager To Bow sticks out 4/1 is too short. King Bertie has just switched to Michael Wigham from Peter Chapple Hyam and looks the type of horse to improve for his new stable. He is proven on the surface and if his jockey can tuck him in and get cover from a wide draw, he might be in with a chance of closing successfully in the straight.Midnight Feast is becoming something of a Kempton specialist, and I can't see why he is 28/1. Again he is drawn wide but he has been versatile with regard to tactics in the past and if this good 3lb claimer can get some cover, there is every chance he can win this. I don't see much point in backing two since we are reliant on luck in running and both selections have a bit of a win or bust profile to them.
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Afternoon Bets:
One race of interest this afternoon, and possible evening bets released before 5.30pm.
3.10 Beverley
Margret's Gift 3pts win @ 7/1 (Betfred, VC Bet, William Hill, Independents, get guaranteed)
Abisko 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 33/1 (Bet 365, Stan James, Betpack.com, Ladbrokes, guaranteed)
An interesting maiden, and nothing sets such an exacting standard that I'd see any one horse as dominant. As such I'm happy to take two against the field at decent prices. Margret's Gift represent a stable who have done well with two year old sprinting fillies in the past, and her second run at Ripon was a really good one. She tacked across to the far side with two others, and beat the two on that side senseless, clear of that group a furlong out. She probably led a furlong out overall, but was caught by two horses on the stands side. It is hard to know if she had an advantage by tacking over, equally she may have been inconvenienced by it and if so, her performance might be worth marking up. She showed good speed and will have no problem dropping back to the minimum, as a result she appeals at the prices.
Abisko needs a little more explaining. She ran really well first time out, hitting the front at one point but appearing too nervous to go ahead of the other horses and eventually fading to third. She has blown the start last twice, and that too might just be as a result of greenness and nervousness rather than temperament - she was happy enough to race on both occasions and indeed performed well in the end, given the circumstances, last time out at Pontefract. First time blinkers are applied today and they might just do her the power of good if they help her confidence. She certainly has enough speed for the trip and it is interesting too that Ellison ran her in a listed race second time out. At 33/1, with the excellent Raul Da Silva booked and claiming 3lb, she looks overpriced.
Profit & loss: day: -16.00 / month: +42.24 / year: +175.44
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