One bet for this evening.
7.00 Kempton Crown Pleasure 5pts win @ 11/4 (Generally, get guaranteed)
A fair looking fillies' maiden at first glance, but many of these have question marks about them on form and/or are bred to appreciate further in time. Crown Pleasure holds a Group 2 entry, has come up trumps with the draw, and arguably looks overpriced at 11/4. The selection ran in a Newmarket maiden first time out, and was green to post and during the race. The penny really dropped inside the final furlong and she began passing horses hand over fist. The quality of opposition looked good and it didn't look like cheap headway. The question mark this evening is her ability to handle polytrack, but her sire Royal Applause's stats, and her trainers, are fine in that regard and she is taken to open her account before going on to better things.
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Afternoon Bets:
See The Sun saved our stake last night, looking like the winner a furlong out but taking each-way money only in the end with third place.
Two for this afternoon and possible evening bets.
1pt each-way double on today's selections, 7/2 and 11/4 generally - use a bookmaker who offers guaranteed prices in multiples. - E/W place double
2.10 Newcastle Lily Rules 4pts win @ 7/2 (Generally, get guaranteed) - WON @ 9/2
Admirable filly who looks game as a pebble and whose form is stacking up very well. She has had a break since her last run but I would suggest that is probably by design, with an autumn campaign on slower ground in mind. She is top weight here, but has the best form in the race by some way in my view, and my feeling is she may progress to a mark of OR90+ in time and perhaps even listed class. She was unlucky at Haydock last time, with the gaps coming too late, but the fast ground probably didn't suit her either and she returns to the scene of her victory today at rain softened Newcastle. Bookmakers will probably take her on with the ground as it is, but I think this is a case of her being much the best horse in the race unless anything improves dramatically, and at the prices I think she is good value - you have to think she would be 2/1 is Richard Hannon trained her.
2.50 Brighton Supersta 4pts win @ 11/4 (Generally, get guaranteed)
Made a really encouraging debut at Ascot last time out in a strong looking maiden (although the form is untested). The juveniles were running into a headwind that day, and the time was slow, so it was a very test for inexperienced horses. The selection represents a yard whose juveniles certainly aren't wound up first time out, but he showed a good attitude in boxing on well, running straight and true and really picking up towards the finish - in fact, he was in front of most (if not all) of the others around 100yds after the finish line, suggesting there was plenty left in the tank. He returns to the track ten days later and should have come on a bundle physically and mentally. The excellent Martin Harley rides, and I fancy him to get the better of the Godolphin trained favourite, who looks a little quirky. We'll also play today's selections in an each-way double.
Profit & loss: day: +9.94 / month: +13.94 / year: +147.14
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