York Ebor Festival 2013 - Day One

A great start to York's Ebor festival in terms of the top class racing offered, and I'm expecting us to come out with a profit by week's end as we have done at Ascot and Goodwood already this summer.

1:55 Symphony Group Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 5f89y 

Above Standard 3pts win @ 8/1 (Bet 365, Stan James, Betpack.com, Coral, William Hill, guaranteed)

Barnet Fair 1pt each-way @ 12/1 (Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 11/1 generally guaranteed) 

AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP.

The name of Mick Easterby has long been associated with this racecourse and Above Standard is selected as a likely sort to land this sprint for local connections. The selection won at this track on his penultimate start and was not disgraced at Goodwood last time out on a track that may not have suited him. He looks very progressive and deserves to be favourite; he also looks one of the best handicapped horses in this contest of a mark of OR90. I think there is improvement to come and with luck in running he can add to his earlier course success over this intermediate distance.

There is loads of pace in the race and Barnet Fair has to be worth betting at a double figure price as a result. He is another who is forgiven his Goodwood run last time out, he wasn't drawn well in the Steward's Cup and you'd have to think the company was a lot hotter than he meets here too. A similar type of horse was only just denied in this contest last year in the shape of Mass Rally, and having followed the selection this season I think he has improved - the way he pulled clear of his side of the field when winning at Ascot on his penultimate start suggested he is in peak form, and with the right ride from his talented 5lb claiming rider, and luck in running, he should go very close.

2:30 Pinsent Masons LLP Acomb Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 7f 

Il Paparazzi 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 17/2 (Betfair Sportsbook, guaranteed, 8/1 Paddy Power, Ladbrokes, independents, guaranteed)

Anything around 7/1 or better on Il Paparazzi looks a misprice to me. The selection is a course and distance winner with a stride any older horse would be proud of, who looked to get better the further he went when winning his maiden here last time out. He is from the family of Camelot, by Royal Applause, and he appears to have been priced up based on his connections here. I have him ahead of the Godolphin horse and very closely matched with The Grey Gatsby on form and as a result I've backed him each way. His trainer clearly thinks the world of him and rates him as a potential 2,000 Guineas horse: 

"Tomorrow afternoon Il Paparazzi returns to the Knavesmire for the Acomb Stakes (2.30 June 20th), it what will be the biggest day of our training career so far. Neil Callan takes the ride in the seven furlong Group 3  for two year olds. Il Paparazzi was very impressive when spread eagling the field on his second start over course and distance and has continued to improve in his homework since then. The form of that race is working out well with both the third and fourth going on to win. It’s a big day for us and a credit to the whole team to be able to produce a two year old to compete at this level with a realistic chance. It’ll be a restless night hoping that big raking stride is enough to carry his fine head past the post in front.

Proven over course and distance it’ll be the opposition that pose the biggest hurdle. The Grey Gatsby really caught the eye when winning on debut and looks to be a fantastic mover and should be suited by the extra furlong. First Flight was far from the finished article when making a winning debut in a Newbury maiden that probably wasn’t that strong. However the manner in which he made up a significant amount of lost ground was noteworthy. This is a different test though and both will be taken into new territory, as will all the runners and its what happens when they come under that pressure that makes this such an interesting race, a star will be born and dreams will be broken."

Don't worry if you see his distinctive sweat patch on his right shoulder, I've noticed that on all his starts so it is no reason not to back him. Here's hoping he runs his race and improves again from his second start - if he does, he will be very hard to pass.

3:05 Neptune Investment Management Great Voltigeur Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) Cl1 1m4f 

No bet for us here but Telescope looks worth taking on. Secret Number and Cap O'Rushes are both suggested win only against the favourite, dutched for a return of around 2/1 on the race if either wins.

3:40 Juddmonte International Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) Cl1 1m2f88y 

A cracking renewal of this prestigious Group 1. For me there are question marks about both the market leaders. Al Kazeem is apparently being trained to peak for the Arc, and I'm not too keen on his form as top drawer Group 1 level achievement. He also hung on the fast ground last time out which suggested to me that he might have had enough for now. Toronado is the likeliest winner but we can't be sure he will improve for the step up in trip. The suggestion here is to back Trading Leather for a place only at around 2/1 on Betfair. His staying form has a very solid look to it and ten furlongs on this galloping track should be perfect for him. I think 2/1 for him to run in the first two is very fair and looks the best bet in a race that is probably otherwise best watched and enjoyed.

4:20 Lanstone Building Conservation Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 2m88y

No interest in this as a betting race. However, Tim Easterby's string have come into form just recently and if you must have a bet, you could do worse than a few quid each-way on Crackentorp at 33/1+. Homeric looks best of the shorter prices.

4:55 BetVictor.com Stakes (Nursery Handicap) Cl2 6f

Bahamian Heights 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 14/1 (Generally guaranteed) - WON

Tiger Twenty two 1pt each-way @ 20/1 (VC Bet, guaranteed, 16/1 generally guaranteed) 

AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP

A really interesting Nursery. I'm not keen of anything from the top of the market, although there is a lot to be said for Ventura Spirit he is short enough and I wasn't massively enamoured with his head carriage last time out. I've decided to go with two tough as boots juveniles who are proven battlers, because I think a tight finish is likely here and whatever wins will have to fight for it. Bahamian Heights is potentially well handicapped off OR90, and he has been running in much better company than most of these just lately. Although he hasn't troubled the judge, he has not been disgraced either and is arguably a bit better than both results. I liked his Yarmouth win and at 14/1, with Ryan Moore on board and first time blinkers applied, he appeals to me.

Richard Fahey won this last year and by his own admission the favourite is probably his number one today, but he insists Tiger Twenty Two has surprised him. He apparently doesn't do a tap at home, but he is developing a bit of a liking for York and the form of his win here last time has been franked by the runner up. He finds loads for pressure and has the assistance of a good 5lb claimer who won on him last time. This is very much a horses for courses track, a theme I'll be incorporating into my selections all week (three course winners from five selections today), and Tiger Twenty Two looks just the sort to excel in a big field York handicap.

Profit & loss: day: +17.50 / month: +51.49 / year: +184.69