Thursday 12th September 2013

Donny Rover was well backed and ran far better than his morning odds suggested he would yesterday. Bedloe's Island kicked up a fuss at the start and was a non runner.

1:40 European Breeders´ Fund Carrie Red Fillies´ Nursery Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 6f110y

Nakuti 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 16/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

By a sire whose progeny are giving some early indication that they handle soft ground, and on the Dam's side is related to Arch Rebel, a noted soft ground performer. This is a race that seems to be lacking an outstanding candidate, and it seems ripe for something to come from left field and land the spoils. The selection travelled much better than a horse of OR74 last time out, and was nabbed late on having been collared close home after a prolonged duel with the eventual third. The eventual winner seemed to act on the fast ground better than Nakuti, and there is hope for further improvement for today's conditions. She was in front far too soon last time out to be fair, and the booking of Jamie Spencer in place of Liam Keniry seems to be a statement of intent. 16/1 is too big.

2:10 Japan Racing Association Sceptre Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 7f

Quite a good renewal although two non runners have lowered the field size. It is hard to know what will improve for the galloping track and prevailing ground conditions, but Winning Express is a strong candidate to do just that and might be worth backing at 7/2.

2:40 Weatherbys Hamilton Insurance £300,000 2-Y-O Stakes Cl2 6f110y

Azagal 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 11/1 / 10/1 (Generally guaranteed for 4 places including Bet 365, Boylesports, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook) - E/W 2nd @ 12/1

Azamour's progeny haven't been talked about much but he is becoming a fine sire and many of his horses act well on soft ground. Azagal's pedigree and knee action would suggest she should improve again for today's conditions, and she looks a horse who will gallop on strongly through this extended distance when others have cried enough. Her run at York last time was on fast ground which she may not have enjoyed, and she was probably racing on the least favourable side of the track too. Despite that, she produced a lifetime best performance in Group 2 company and she should thrive for the step down in class here. Double figure prices, with four places to be paid with many bookmakers, are too big and she should be backed each-way to save the stake with a larger portion on the bet.

3:15 DFS Park Hill Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m6f132y

This will take some getting, and at the prices I'm happy to sit it out. The Lark would be a token choice for those wanting to get involved.

3:50 crownhotel-bawtry. com EBF Maiden Stakes Cl3 1m

A no bet race with little form to go on. Fast Delivery ticks a lot of boxes on pedigree and probably deserves to be favourite.

4:25 Download The Ladbrokes Bingo App Handicap Cl3 6f

If So 4pts win @ 7/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

James Fanshawe's horses have been in fine form and I see very little for If So to be afraid of here if she brings her A game to the table. She has progressed rapidly this season and like her half brother Deacon Blues, I fancy her to progress beyond this class. She seems to be getting better with time and she is a strapping big filly who will eat up the ground at this galloping track. 7/1 is too big and she looks an obvious selection against the favourite to me.

5:00 DFS Handicap Cl2 1m2f60y

No bet but Clon Brulee was close to being a selection, I fancy him to gallop these into the ground and he is a good price at 7/1.

Profit & loss: day: -8.00 / month: +12.50 / year: +257.29