Friday 30th August 2013

Tornado Force looks like it will be backed, so I'm sending today's e-mail early since there's an each-way double involved. 

August has been very kind to us, whatever happens today we'll finish the month well over 100pts up and it goes down as one of our best ever returns. I'm going to take Saturday and Sunday off, because Saturday doesn't look that hot, nor does Sunday. It's a good time to get a breather in, and for clients to assess their year so far too. We have Doncaster's Leger meeting coming up and of course Ayr's big meeting. The next e-mail will be Monday morning - although looking at the cards right now they look uninspiring and we mightn't actually bet.

Two for this evening, at Southwell.

1pt each-way double on today's selections @ 5/1 and 4/1 generally guaranteed.

6.30 Southwell Putin 4pts win @ 5/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

For a horse of limited ability, Putin is admirable because he has managed to win six times in a busy career - he has raced 86 times and is only a five year old. He is better on the all weather but has improved on turf this season and seems to have thrived for a drop back to sprinting. It is amazing to think he has won over a mile and also over twelve furlongs here, but his early toe always meant he could have rivals in trouble that may not handle the surface too well - I think that illustrates the unusual nature of the fibresand surface. Whatever, the selection has learned how to put it all together over five and six furlongs and he might be well handicapped on this surface having improved on what seems to be his least favoured surface of turf. John Coffey is unproven on this surface, and although I had considered Solarmaite too she looks short enough for a horse who hasn't really done it here - in addition, she didn't bend well at Wolverhampton. Putin is the sort of horse who could be five lengths clear by the time the others know what hit them here, and at the prices he looks worth backing to win and in an each-way double.

7.30 Southwell Tornado Force 4pts win @ 4/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Was extremely impressive in beating a very good fibresand yardstick in Jack Dawkins on his fibresand debut earlier this year. He travelled like a dream on the surface and it was no surprise given his sire's excellent record with his progeny at Southwell. He has since gone to Alan McCabe, one of the best Southwell trainers, but seems to have lost his way over the summer. McCabe's horses weren't in great form, though, and it is interesting his string are starting to fire again - old Elusive Warrior won here the other night and Flying Pickets didn't run badly from a poor draw. The selection has had a nice break and given that he has gone well fresh in the past, this might be the time to catch him. He travels strongly, so the placement here back a furlong in trip from his course win to this intermediate distance smacks of McCabe probably looking at this race in the program book a few weeks back (ie. this has been the plan for a few weeks) - as does the booking of the season's hottest claimer Connor Beasley, whose 5lb claim is a steal. Tornado Force looks the bet of the day off a mark of OR65 and we'll include him in an each-way double with Putin too.

Profit & loss: day: -10.00 / month: +107.60 / year: +240.79