Saturday 21st September 2013

Not a day's racing where I feel particularly strongly about anything at short odds, and I'm happy to take a couple of shots at both the big Ayr handicaps and leave it at that.

2.40 Ayr - Ayr Silver Cup

Polski Max 1pt each-way @ 40/1 (Bet 365, Bet Victor, Ladbrokes, Independents, guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP

Pearl Ice 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 18/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

I've pretty much taken one from the near side and one from elsewhere in both sprints, I do think the near side is the place to be but never be surprised to see a draw bias turned on it's head - it usually happens because one side races too fast or too slow and that is never really taken into account.

Polski Max has some strong early season form on soft ground, and his handicap mark has come back down to OR96 after a summer racing on ground that he doesn't handle. He hinted at a return to form at Ripon last time out and with his jockey's 5lb claim he looks overpriced at 33/1+. He wasn't given a hard time at Ripon when making late headway and you'd have to feel he will be cherry ripe for this.

Pearl Ice will hopefully be ridden with a bit more restraint than usual by Jamie Spencer - there is a lot of pace drawn high and a burn up would be a worry. You can rely on this jockey not to get there too soon, though, and his form with Spinatrix from Ripon looks strong. 18/1 is too big and he gets the shout of those drawn near side.

3.50 Ayr - Ayr Gold Cup

Hasopop 1pt each-way @ 33/1 (Generally guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP

Spinatrix 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 25/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Hasopop has a crazy jockey booking, which must be down to the owner. Paulo Sirigu does have the distinction of being the only jockey to get a win out of Miakora, however, and his quieter style might suit this strong traveller. The selection has some very strong form, he shapes like a galloper, and the progeny of Haatef have been handling this kind of ground well. He stays further than six furlongs and I actually think this text will be ideal - 33/1 is too big.

Spinatrix is thought of by many as a Ripon specialist but she has won here too and is in the form of her life. She may have been in front too soon against Baccarat at Ripon last time and she might have a better draw than that rival today. 25/1 is a bit ridiculous given how closely matched they look and she looks excellent value to me at the prices. Connor Beasley is excellent value for his 5lb.

Profit & loss: day: -12.00 / month: +86.30 / year: +351.09