Thursday 19th September 2013

Three races of interest, all at Ayr on day one of their flagship meeting.

2.10 Ayr

Red Stargazer 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 16/1 (Boylesports, SeanieMac.com, Bet Victor, guaranteed, 14/1 generally guaranteed) - WON

Mishnah 1pt win @ Betfair SP AND 1pt place @ Betfair SP

The top section of this market is made up of horses with various negatives against their name and this race has tended to throw up big prices in second and third over the years. That's probably down to the fact that top yards send horses for the race but they don't exactly send their stable stars and usually the field contains one or two useful types with the rest pretty much scrapping for place money. Kommander Kirkup and Ribbleton are standouts here, but the former hasn't raced since his debut and isn't sure to act on soft ground in my view, while the second is by a sire, Bushranger, whose progeny haven't had a good record on this ground from a limited sample size thus far. In addition, he was a bit disappointing last time out. A chance is taken, therefore, on the unraced horse Red Stargazer, who should handle conditions based on his breeding and represents a trainer with a 25% strike rate with juveniles at the track in recent years. Robert Winston has been used sparingly by the stable but has a 3/12 25% strike rate for them over the same time period, and it is interesting the selection fits neatly into the criteria for this race as a relatively cheap purchase - this race may have been the intention for a while.

A chance is taken too on Mishnah at astronomical odds. She is by Orpen and should handle the ground, she also has a featherweight to carry as a bargain basement purchase with a 5lb claimer up too. She has it to do against the likes of the favourite but she ran a really nice race on debut and looked really green, she should learn from that and her dam was an OR80+ 2yo winner. The trainer makes what will probably end up a ten hour plus round trip and it is interesting he goes to the trouble. She should be a triple figure price on the win market.

2.40 Ayr Partner 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 25/1 (Betfred, Bet Victor, Stan James, Betpack.com, independents, guaranteed)

Parnter looks a bit of a plot here. He has lost his way and come right down in the ratings since finishing faster than some much higher rated horses in the Ayr Gold Cup last season when he was sent off a 66/1 shot and excelled himself in seventh. The stable haven't had a good year but they did have a winner at Musselburgh the other day, where Partner ran better than his finishing position suggests. He wasn't suited by a sharp right handed track and the return to a straight five furlongs on soft ground is in his favour today. Blinkers are returned, all six career wins have been achieved in them. Off a mark of OR60 he is worth chancing at 20/1+.

5.10 Ayr Calculated Risk 6pts win @ 11/2 (Boylesports, SeanieMac.com, Bet Victor, William Hill, Betfair Sportsbook, guaranteed) - WON

Calculated Risk is a smashing looker who has already won on heavy ground over hurdles, and seems to excel on a galloping track on rain softened ground. He is unexposed on the flat and was not suited by the way the race panned out at Hamilton last time, when he was sent off 5/4fav for a yard who should be feared when the money is down. Connections waste no time stepping him up in trip here and I feel it should bring about further improvement. He is a fine big horse, much like Bold Duke who won for is the other day, and will have no trouble carrying 9-9 on his back. As a son of Motivator I think the step up in trip should bring further improvement with it, and he is worth backing with a decent stake at odds I think are too big - I make him around 4/1 on my tissue.

Profit & loss: day: +60.80 / month: +111.30 / year: +376.09