A little bit of a damp squib for day one with only two selections, but the ground looks set to change during the afternoon with rain almost certain to hit Doncaster. Thus I'm erring on the side of caution today to get a handle on how the track is riding for the rest of the week - there's no point in throwing out hard earned profits on selections that may not have ideal conditions. Both today's selections are a little speculative but should enjoy the ground and definitely have any negatives factored into their respective prices.
2:00 Arena Group Nursery Handicap Cl2 7f
Donny Rover 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 40/1 (Bet 365, guaranteed, 33/1 generally guaranteed)
Donny Rover was sent off just 13/2 for the soft ground Brocklesby, but no showed and has struggled for most of the season on quick ground. He is by Excellent Art, whose progeny have a marked preference for soft and heavy ground. It may not be that testing by the time this race gets underway, but there will certainly be some give in it and it is worth noting the track has been verti drained since the last meeting, which often results in the track riding slower than the advertised ground would suggest it should. The selection has hinted at finding his form on his last two starts, and it appears connections have saved him for a late season campaign. The stable, who haven't had a vintage 2013 by any means, seem to have hit form just lately and their last two representatives have won. David Probert is a good booking and can do the weight no problem.
2:30 Irish Stallion Farms E B F Conditions Stakes Cl2 6f
Justice Day was originally intended as a selection here but I fear the ground may have gone on him. As such, it's a no bet race for us.
3:00 Crown Hotel Bawtry Scarbrough Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 5f
Magical Macey handles rain softened ground well but I just don't think she's strong enough to recommend as a bet. 11/1 represents fair each-way value for those looking to get involved.
3:35 Clipper Logistics Leger Legends Classified Stakes Cl5 1m
A no bet race for me if there ever was one. Callmeakhab would be a token each-way interest.
4:10 Park Hill Hospital Conditions Stakes Cl2 1m2f60y
Again no betting interest here, but I've discussed the strengths of Whipper's progeny on soft ground numerous time and the outsider of the bunchWhipper's Boy could outrun his odds if the ground cuts up here.
4:45 Beauty At Doncaster Handicap Cl2 7f
Regal Dan would have been a bet at around 15/2 on better ground, but I can't recommend him under these conditions and I'll let him win at odds of around 11/2.
5:15 Berendsen Workwear Handicap Cl4 5f
Bedloe's Island 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 20/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) - N/R
There are a couple of caveats here in that Bedloe's Island has been off for 52 days, generally something I don't like with a sprinter. In addition, some of David O'Meara's aren't running to form, but the victory of Thornaby Nash yesterday would suggest that perhaps his soft ground horses are coming to hand and gearing up for late season campaigns. Bedloe's Island is relatively lightly raced for an eight year old, but he has run some really good races since switching to O'Meara at the start of the season and still looks fairly handicapped off OR84. In addition, he is proven on soft and heavy ground, including one good run on his seasonal reappearance here in 2012. He hit the front too soon that day and battled on well for third. In retrospect, that looks a much better race than this and if the ground slows up, conditions should suit the selection better than most. His draw might also be a positive, although it is hard to know at the start of the meeting if there will be any particular bias. I thought the selection was far too big at 20/1+, I make him an 11/1 shot if the rain gets into the ground, and he'll be our best bet for day one.
Profit & loss: day: -3.00 / month: +20.50 / year: +265.29
No comments:
Post a Comment