Saturday 19th October 2013

A brilliant day's racing, and we have three interests. One winner would put us nicely ahead on the day.

There is a small chance of an evening bet, released before 5.30pm.

2.55 Ascot Belle De Crecy 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 11/1 (Bet 365, Bet Victor, Paddy Power, Many independents, guaranteed) - E/W 2nd

Her trainer / jockey rides this track like no other, and I am hoping Johnny Murtagh (currently the best jockey in the world to my mind) can sign off what has been a truly incredible year for him with a Group 1 win on this filly. She seems to be improving fast and her win last time was impressive - she had no trouble travelling off a very strong pace set by Shirocco Star and quickening on the home turn while others took much longer to get involved and never landed a blow (Shirocco Star ended up tailed off). This to me is the sign of a horse who can step up to Group 1 company, and I find it interesting there are few pace angles in this race - Murtagh might just get his own way in front. Her stamina must be taken on trust but she is a half sister to The Miniver Rose who won the Park Hill, that bodes well in my view and at double figures and the dead eight lining up, we can cover most of our stake in the event of a place by staking accordingly as above.

3.30 Ascot - Queen Elizabeth II Stakes - 

Soft Falling Rain 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 15/2 (Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 7/1 Bet 365, Ladbrokes, William Hill, guaranteed).

It's a case of spot the irony here as Soft Falling Rain doesn't want too much rain to scupper his chances of landing this great prize. However, he is untested on a soft surface rather than proven not to like it. Added to that, most of the last band of rain looks like it will miss Ascot (just about), which is good news for connections - I can't see too much rain hitting the course before the off and I think at worst they'll get 1mm. If the ground does ride more like good to soft on the straight course, I think he has every chance. He is by National Assembly, who is part of the Danzig line that was responsible for a whole pile of Royal Ascot winners this year. The dam is U.S.A. bred and I think Soft Falling Rain is a model to appreciate Ascot's sand based surface. He has won on artificial surfaces already, which is a big pointer in picking out horses who will act at Ascot. He comes here fresher than most, off the back of a career best effort, and the ground is pretty much the only possible negative - it seems connections have even entered a pacemaker for him. I think the ground has been over factored into the price here and I'm happy to support him at 7/1+.

4.35 Kelso Kilgefin Star 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 12/1 (Totesport, Betfred, Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 11/1 Bet Victor, guaranteed) - WON

Michael Smith is a trainer I have my eye on, his string are going places and he tends to have horses ready to go first time out as I have alluded to before. This ex-pointer makes his debut for the stable this afternoon and I think he'll enjoy the galloping track and the cut in the ground. The top two in the market don't set an exacting standard and I think there is plenty of scope in backing him each-way against them to a decent total stake of six points. He does look more of a chaser but as a progressive point winner a novice hurdle like this should be within his scope. The only worry would be that he didn't actually win a point until May 31st, suggesting the maiden he won may not have been of high a standard (some events at that time of year do tend to be weaker), but he is only a five year old and is probably just finding his feet. I have noted his trainer improving similar types, and in a weak contest like this at a track where his trainer likes having winners (last runner won a bumper easily first time out at 16/1) he is worth taking a chance on before the market cottons on to the trainer's ability.

Profit & loss: day: +42.60 / month: +51.47 / year: +514.47

Friday 18th October 2013

Sweeping Rock didn't seem to give his running despite being heavily backed last night, something may have been amiss with the horse, I will check the B.H.A. site later.

We may have evening bets, released before 5.30pm.

Just one for this afternoon.

2.30 Redcar First Commandment 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 66/1 (Ladbrokes, guaranteed, 50/1 generally guaranteed)

It's more than tempting to get involved with Cheltenham this afternoon, and there is a good card at Haydock too, but the fact is there are very few decent betting opportunities and it's to Redcar we go for what amounts to a minimum stakes speculative bet. These Redcar maidens can throw up strange results, and given the ground is soft I'm keen to field against both Kommander Kirkup and Locky Taylor, who is by Bushranger, whose progeny don't seem to be as good on soft ground on statistics to date. On all known evidence Kommander Kirkup should win this by ten lengths, but I'm just not sure about him on the ground and I feel he is more of a 6/4 shot than 8/11 - as such he and the Bushranger colt make the market and there are some big prices floating around elsewhere.

The problem is, nothing else really sticks out and many of these may never win a race. Neither of Beautiful Stranger or Danzero look good enough based on form and visual evidence so far. First Commandment, however, seems to be thought of as a two year old sprinter because he was sent off just 6/1 for his debut in a York maiden before disappointing. He didn't reappear until the end of September, where he was good enough to lead at Ripon before fading as concentration and work ethic were not his strong points. It is interesting, then, that a first time eyeshield is applied today, and assuming the horse is allowed to run on his merits (this is third time for a handicap mark after all) he looks too big at 50/1+ against what may for the most part be a poor field. He is a fine, strapping gelding and soft ground should hold no fears. His half brother Confessional finished second in a first time eyeshield at 16/1, and wears it to this day. That horse handles soft ground too, and in a race where it is difficult to find positives about many of the runners (and nothing else looks remotely a value price) he is selected at a price which will reward us well even if he can snatch a place.

Profit & loss: day: -3.00 / month: +8.87 / year: +471.87

Thursday 17th October 2013

Another nice winner this afternoon and I hope you all got 7/1.

One selection for this evening.

8.20 Kempton Sweeping Rock 4pts win @ 15/2 (Bet Victor, guaranteed, 7/1 generally guaranteed)

Sweeping Rock caught the eye last time out being ridden for a turn of foot in a staying race that was run at an absolute crawl, travelling well turning in for home but allowed to stay on the bridle and eventually meeting trouble. You can't be too hard on the apprentice rider (although Michael Murphy has been around a while now and it wasn't his finest ride), but the booking of William Buick this evening is a real bonus here. He is very aware tactically and you would assume the trainer, who I'm sure is desperate for a winner, has told him to ride the horse more forcefully. I think he has a bit in hand of his current mark of OR56 (ran to RPR 60 last time over course and distance) and he has improved slowly with racing. If he comes on again tonight and gets a better ride, he will be very hard to keep from getting involved in the finish. The race he ran in last time was probably better than this, it was an all aged affair too and he is back against his own age group this evening. Trainer form is a worry, but he did have won finish second in the opener tonight which bodes well for Sweeping Rock's chance. He is bred to be a bit better than this and, with stamina and ability to handle the surface assured unlike some of the others, he makes plenty of appeal at 7/1+.

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Afternoon Bets:

Another very good day yesterday with Johnno landing what was a big bet for an 18/1 shot. He was well punted, but a 30c Rule 4 was an annoyance - I didn't fancy the favourite at all, and the bookmakers then shortened it on course to increase the Rule 4 they took. 

Two for this afternoon, and a possible evening bet to be released before 5.30pm.

2.10 Brighton Charitable Act 4pts win @ 7/1 (Bet 365, Totesport, Betfred, guaranteed, 13/2 generally guaranteed) - WON

Has looked at times as if he isn't putting it all in, and he did look around him a couple of times when second at this track on his penultimate run. He may have lacked for fitness that day following an absence, and I thought he got a funny ride from Jimmy Fortune last time out. Fortune looked down as if something was amiss (or perhaps the horse was going too well?!) and eased him right off, despite the horse continuing to travel quite powerfully. First time blinkers are applied today and the progeny of Cadeaux Genereaux have a good record on soft ground. Anything 6/1+ looks fair.

3.10 Brighton Armourer 2pts each-way @ 20/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

It is rare that I stake straight each-way, but you would have made a decent few quid backing all William Muir's juveniles and three year olds first time out this season to each-way stakes. They have generally been tuned up and ready to go first time, if not at peak fitness. This looks a winnable race, the gamble Classical Art is not for me (it's being backed because of the sire's record on this ground and is something of a "sexy second time out" horse), Stosur looks solid but no superstar, Bishop Wulstan is first time out for Hannon and is respected and Nakeeta is first time gelded (Sheena West awaits?!). I'm not keen on the profile of either Balding runner, and at 20/1 Armourer makes appeal. He is really well bred, cost his handler 30,000GNS, has soft ground influence in his pedigree, and is entered in the Derby. Martin Dwyer turns up for the one ride, and I just think this is another example of a well bred unraced horse from a less than prolific yard who is overpriced. Anything 14/1+ would be good value in my view, 20/1 is taking the biscuit.

Profit & loss: day: +20.00 / month: +11.87 / year: +471.87

Wednesday 16th October 2013

We almost landed a huge gamble last night with Cincuenta Pasos, whom we backed at 66/1 and 50/1, sent off 25/1 and trading as low as 1.56 in running before going down a head and a nose in third place. The place money was decent, and although it could have been much more there's no point in worrying about it. We were well ahead of the market and in the long term that's what pays dividends.

Two for this afternoon - possible evening bets will be released before 5.30pm.

2.30 Lingfield Foxie Girl 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 33/1 (Bet Bright, 28/1 Bet Victor, 25/1 Ladbrokes. Betfair Sportsbook, independents, guaranteed)

Another unraced horse in a maiden auction event that looks there for the taking if the favourite doesn't act on the surface. Foxie Girl is really well bred for this test, being a half sister to Resplendent Nova and Mr. Willis, who were both best on polytrack and indeed very good on the surface. The sire Virtual hasn't had many runners so far but has had an all weather winner in Razor Quest, who appears to have a really good action for the surface. The selection represents John Best, who has not had a good year but loves his winners here and does get occasional first time out two year old winners. Many of them go unbacked despite the trainer's shrewdness, and I have seen a 10/1 winner and 16/1 runner up at this track (the winner in a maiden auction) over the course of the last few years. Of his last 50 first time out horses the actual versus expected ratio is 1.34 which suggests they are somewhat underbet. While the favourite looks to have a good chance here, he is not proven on this surface and the rest who have raced don't look up to that much. We'll take a small chance at 25/1+ on Foxie Girl being good enough to run a place at least.

5.45 Lingfield Johnno 1pt each-way AND 3pts win @ 18/1 (Betfred, Bet Victor, Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 16/1 generally guaranteed) - WON 30c Rule

Johnno has run four times on the all weather, and has recorded figures each time that put him well ahead of today's handicap mark of OR73. He has been racing on turf all summer but opportunities have been hard to come by, because he has struggled with his breathing, and is also 17 hands - huge for a flat horse. This probably explains why he likes the forgiving polytrack surface, and it is interesting connections refit the tongue tie today. Seb Sanders reported that he went ok in it at Ascot, but just didn't let himself down on the surface - John Hills said the horse hardly blew after the race. He was tried without the aid last time but disappointed. He gets first time blinkers and a tongue tie today which is really interesting, and should allow him to focus on his racing. The trainer is in decent form with Dangerous Age winning a couple of races at Wolverhampton lately, and I think is the selection runs his race today he could eat these for breakfast off this kind of mark. There looks to be a bit of pace on, so I'd hope for a hold up ride from stall ten, and for Seb to bring the horse with a wide, late run down the Lingfield straight. Odds of 16/1+ are far too big and I'm happy to take the chance that he puts it all together back in 0-75 company.

Profit & loss: day: +52.92 / month: -8.13 / year: +451.87

Tuesday 15th October

A 9/2 winner and the place part of a 9/2 / 15/2 each-way double gives us a nice return for today.

One very speculative interest for this evening.

6.10 Kempton Cincuenta Pasos 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 66/1 (Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 50/1 and 40/1 generally guaranteed) E/W 3rd 

I've been banging on all flat season about certain unraced horses being underbet, and our record over the course of the season with unraced horses suggests there is an edge to be had given the right circumstances. As such, I can resist a ver small each-way interest on Cincuenta Pasos at the current prices. The selection is quite well bred for this test, being by Footstepsinthesand, whose progeny are better on artificial surfaces than turf, and out of a dam who, although unplaced on her only start, is related to a Group 2 winner and posted a fair RPR of 55 on her only start. This is a really speculative bet, but the horse is overpriced based on its breeding and you only have to look back two years to see Tropics finished second, an unconsidered 66/1 shot, on his debut here despite his breeding.  This is a bad race, I'm not a fan of the favourite or second favourite, and very little appeals. On the assumption the selection is fit and ready to run on debut, he really should get involved to some degree and I'm happy to take a little chance after a decent afternoon today.

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Afternoon Bets:

A couple of decent flat cards this afternoon and two selections for us at Newcastle. Evening bets for Kempton may follow, details before 5.15pm.

1pt each-way double on this afternoon's selections, 9/2 and 6/1 generally guaranteed. - E/W place double

4.30 Newcastle Keep It Dark 5pts win @ 9/2 (Generally, get guaranteed) - WON

Tony Coyle has his string in fine form, with four winners and three seconds from his last thirteen runners, and he sends Keep It Dark to Newcastle for this six furlong event. The selection is a cheaply bought Luca Cumani cast off who has taken plenty of time to find his feet, but he did manage a win over seven furlongs on good to soft here in April, and there is little doubt he has improved for the drop to sprint trips on his last two outings over five furlongs. He was unlucky not to win against Windforpower, and followed that up by more or less winning the race on his side at Redcar, giving best to a rival who will probably end up rated OR90+ and win some big races who was left alone on the far side. The selection hits the ground really hard, and although his last two runs were on good to firm, the visual evidence of his course win and the action he displays would suggest he should revel in these conditions. I would suggest he might improve again, and if he does he should be capable of winning of this mark, perhaps going in again in the near future.

5.00 Newcastle Bunce 4pts win @ 7/1 (William Hill, guaranteed, 13/2 Bet Victor, Paddy Power, many independents, guaranteed) - E/W 3rd @ 15/2

It was only a poor claimer Bunce won last time, but he carried a decent weight and actually came back on the bridle close home, having been held up early and finished his race really strongly. This is another stiff test, not unlike Hamilton's, and he is of interest because he has won on heavy ground in the past. This is his third time wearing blinkers, and he looks a different horse for their application - he rather lost his way before showing up really well in the first time headgear at Wolverhampton (faded late over seven furlongs), and he won handily last time. If he continues to respond well to them, I think he can go in again having been put up only 4lb for his win. He has won off OR78 in the past, and off OR66 and with the Coyle horse a non runner, this does not look the strongest 0-75 I've seen.

Profit & loss: day: +30.25 / month: -61.05 / year: +398.95

Monday 14th October 2013

Just one selection for Monday.

4.30 Salisbury Night's Watch 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 14/1 (Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 12/1 generally guaranteed)

This is actually a diabolical 0-70 handicap for three year olds, with none of the horses who line up having managed a win in 2013. That tells you all you need to know, and we have the likes of Hero's Story trading as low as 10/3, priced up purely on his stable's recent form and jockey booking (he is moderate at best). This looks a nice piece of placement for Night's Watch, who is one of the more unexposed horses in the line up. He is by Authorized and ought to get better with time and distance, and he showed some ability in a Kempton maiden at two, finishing fourth over a mile. His action suggests soft ground on turf will be to his liking, and it is worth noting his sire's progeny boast a very impressive 24% strike rate on heavy ground, 17% on soft from a decent if not huge sample size. The selection ran much better than his finishing position suggests on his belated reappearance at Leicester recently. That was in a very good maiden for older horses, and having been keen early on he travelled well into the race to challenge three furlongs out, before his early endeavours and perhaps a lack of race fitness took their toll. He was allowed to come home in his own time, but crucially the racing press have failed to note the promise of the run, and as such he is underestimated in the market today. William Jarvis has not had a good season, but he had two horses, Hefner and Blurred Vision, outrun big odds on Saturday at York, and if the selection has come on for his first run of the year during his three week break, he ought to be able to take a hand  in the finish at the very least. His keenness needs to be sorted out but the step back to ten furlongs should help and I wouldn't be surprised to see him allowed to bowl along. Anything in double figures represents value, 12/1+ is far too big.

Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: -91.30 / year: +368.70

Sunday 13th October 2013

Just one for today.

4.45 Goodwood Links Drive Lady 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 20/1 (Bet Victor, William Hill, 18/1 Stan James, Betpack.com)

Links Drive Lady doesn't come across as an out and out soft ground plodder but she definitely handles the surface, having won on soft at Windsor having travelled well, and she usually goes well at Goodwood - she holds Athenian on a piece of winning form from May and, given that Athenian was off since, I am inclined to think there may have been a problem or two and I didn't see huge promise from her at Hamilton. I think the selection has every chance of improving again from a mark of OR88 because this is another sprint where the principals have a lot of negatives about them - Ashpan Sam isn't proven on downhill tracks, I am questioning Athenian's heart for the battle in her current fettle, Don Marco has been off for a year following a setback in April, and Joe Packet is unproven on course and ground. We have to forgive a couple of poor runs but the selection's form here is rock solid and she ran well on her last visit behind La Fortunate on ground that looked too fast for her. Anything 16/1 or better is too big and Silvestre De Sousa has ridden her before (held her up, I'll be hoping she is held up again today).

Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: -86.30 / year: +373.70

Saturday 12th October 2013

One evening bet.

5.50 Wolverhampton Izzy Boy 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 16/1 (Generally guaranteed)

This is a risky one but you have to wonder why Mark Johnston is persisting with this gelding and he is bred to be much better than he has shown so far. He spat the dummy last time out at Southwell, slowly away and never in contention. That was a much better race, though, and if he improves at all for the polytrack surface he might be able to beat this lot. It is a bad race and he has already shown enough to suggest he is capable of winning in 0-60 company. He is probably as likely to finish last as first, but if he is sharper at the start of the race I would expect a bold showing. He two other engagements in the coming days and it appears connections are keen to get him winning races as soon as possible.

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Afternoon Bets:

Two for this afternoon, there is a small chance of an evening bet, details before 5.30pm.

3.50 Newmarket Lieutenant Miller 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 14/1 (Generally guaranteed) - E/W 3rd

Represents a trainer who has a good record in this race, and has looked over the summer as if this kind of test would be tailor made for him. Ran really well at Royal Ascot just finding one too good, and seems to have been put away with this race in mind since. The booking of Ryan Moore is obviously a major positive, and I'm quite surprised at odds of 14/1. He has rock solid form in the book where some of these have certain factors that need taking on trust, and despite a high draw he is too big in the betting to ignore.

3.30 York Khubala 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 12/1 (Bet 365, Paddy Power, Ladbrokes, independents, guaranteed)

Khubala is another horse who has threatened to win a big one all summer. His form behind Tropics sticks out, and although he will need the usual luck in running in terms of pace at this track, I quite like his draw in stall 16 looking at the positions of a few of the fancied runners around him. Double figure odds are too big, I would make him around 8/1 second favourite myself and although Baccarat will be a tough nut to crack, the selection makes plenty of appeal.

Profit & loss: day: -6.50 / month: -81.30 / year: +378.70

Friday 11th October 2013

A fairly busy Friday for us, with three selections.

2.30 York Pabusar 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 16/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

York sprints can be something of an enigma regarding pace and the draw, but a chance is taken on Pabusar nonetheless. The selection has a standout piece of form behind Hamish McGonagall from July 2012 over course and distance, and he again ran well here on his second course visit when third to Above Standard in June. He has gone well after this kind of break before, and his trainer Jamie Osborne is in good form - the stable had a winner the other night with another switcher, Mr. David. A first time hood is applies and Jamie Spencer is booked. The handicapper has been kind here, and the selection should be able to go close off a mark of OR92.

4.15 York Chancery 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 12/1 (Ladbrokes, William Hill, guaranteed, 11/1 Bet Victor, Coral, guaranteed)

Riding chancery around here must be like driving a Rolls Royce. He is a strapping big son of Street Cry with a giant stride, which suits this track down to the ground. Top weight will hold no fears and I've wondered over the course of the summer if he is better than handicap class at this track. I think he can win again off a mark of OR99, he is a difficult horse for the handicapper to weigh up such is the ease with which he travels. A big field and strong pace is right up his street, he travels that well that his jockey has gotten there too soon on both occasions he has won here this summer, and I hope he holds on to him for as long as he dares. He will be very difficult to keep out of the places here is he turns up in the form he has been in, and I find it difficult to visualize a horse passing him - it will take a good performance to beat him and a double figure price is just too big.

8.40 Wolverhampton Paddy's Bay 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 20/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Kevin Ryan doesn't tend to train many OR55 rated no hopers, and I think there was enough in the selection's last run to merit backing him against the favourite at six times that horse's price this evening. The selection set off far too fast on what was his first polytrack start, under an apprentice pilot. He seemed to enjoy the surface and had the lead until the home turn when he came under pressure and faded. I'm not sure if he really took to blinkers the last twice either, and at the odds I'm banking on first time cheekpieces and the booking of Neil Callan unlocking more improvement. He is bred to be a bit better than this and if the new headgear and pilot can see him put it all together, he is no 20/1 shot in this field. Callan has been riding Wolverhampton well, and although I have no statistics on it I've noticed a few of these Sleeping Indian progeny act well on this surface since it was treated during the summer (Pull The Plug and Dangerous Age have three wins between them, with numerous placers).

Profit & loss: day: -14.00 / month: -74.80 / year: +385.19

Thursday 10th October 2013

Just one for this evening.

8.10 Kempton Mohair 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 22/1 (Bet Victor, guaranteed, 20/1 generally guaranteed)

A really poor race and, although he may not have enjoyed Wolverhampton's track as it is currently riding, Jezza faded far too quickly for my liking last time out to be of any interest at 4/1 this evening. A chance is taken on Mohair, who looks well handicapped based on one piece of form for James Fanshawe where she posted an RPR of 69 over twelve furlongs here in a race that worked out well last year. The selection has since gone to Luke Dace, and belatedly reappeared for 2013 at Lingfield last month. That was over ten furlongs and she wasn't given a hard time at all, held up in rear and not asked too many questions, staying on under tender handling in the home straight. She steps up to two miles tonight and it is obviously part of a plan, because she is entered over the same trip at Lingfield in a few days time. This trainer has routinely stepped horses up in trip in the past with some success - American Spin comes to mind, who is a decent three mile hurdler these days - and his older horses boast an 8/68 12% strike rate at Kempton returning a level stakes profit of +£44.50 to the pound. The filly is by Motivator but there are question marks about two miles on the dam's side of the pedigree - saying that, she looks well in off OR55 and at a big price, she looks the value in the race.

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Afternoon Bets:

We were unlucky yesterday on a couple of counts. Firstly, I have to admit I had my eye on Argot as well as Twin Appeal in the Nottingham maiden. There was no money for the horse at all, (BSP 38.0) and I thought the pedigree suggested the all weather this winter would see the horse find form, but he went and won handily. Why would I say that after the event? Because it's actually good news for us. It further highlights that unraced horses are not only being underbet, but that many trainers are reluctant to put money down first time up either down to not knowing how the horse will perform, or an unwillingness to add pressure to the situation which might see the jockey give a young horse an overly hard ride. It is important to pick and choose, but these opportunities do exist.

Sarpech got a bad ride. Having missed the break he was rousted far too much in order to find his stride - the jockey might as well have ridden a finish - and then reined back when he met inteference early on. He ran well in the circumstances and that will not be picked up by most race readers.

Saoi ran a tremendous race, but the favourite was just too good. Still, I'd rather have been on Saoi at 16/1 than the favourite at 2/1 in the circumstances and we got our money back on the bet.

One for this afternoon, with possible evening bets to follow.

5.10 Ayr Imperial Bond 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 20/1 (Bet 365, Bet Victor, Ladbrokes, many independents, guaranteed)

I'm very surprised at the price of Imperial Bond this morning. He was no match for Dawn Calling last time out, but that rival is rated OR78 now and will probably end up an OR90+ horse in time in my opinion (I'll forgive any three year old a bad run in an all aged sprint handicap with lunatics like Barkston Ash to contend with!). The selection was really starting to gallop on at the finish, and it is interesting Jason Ward has sent him on a seven hour round trip to Ayr for this 0-60 event, again booking the services of the excellent 5lb claimer Kevin Stott (his only ride of the day).  I have to confess to being a bit of a fan of the trainer, he operates a small string of cheaply bought types and gets them to win in turn, doing particularly well with fillies.Imperial Bond has been put up 13lb, but I'm inclined to think that hardly matters with the good maiden run behind him and I'm giving the handicapper the benefit of the doubt here. Ward's horses tend to go well on soft ground - three winners and five places from thirteen horses to run on soft or heavy ground over the course of the trainer's short career would suggest he buys horses who are likely to handle give underfoot. An impressive A/E value of 1.51 suggests his horses under these conditions are very much underbet, although a sample size of thirteen is very small. The selection should handle today's conditions on breeding (forget the Redcar run last year, the horse hadn't come to), and I just think he might enjoy Ayr's more galloping track and the cover he is likely to get in a field of handicappers rather than a field of no hopers like many of those he ran against last time. Of course these aren't very good handicappers, and I think a 0-60 on this type of ground should be his for the taking over the course of the coming weeks. He hasn't "learned" to win yet, so with 5/1 being paid for him to run in the first three, a decent each-way bet and added 1pt win looks the call at the prices.

Profit & loss: day: -9.00 / month: -60.80 / year: +399.19

Wednesday 9th October 2013

Two selections for this evening.

6.40 Kempton Sea Defence 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 10/1 (Bet 365, Stan James, Betpack.com, Coral, guaranteed)

We're well into the time of year that Khalid Abdullah sends out a few very good, backward two year olds, and although it has taken a little longer than usual, 16/1 and 5/1 (in Ireland) winners first time out in the last week would suggest it's business as usual. Sea Defence is very well bred, and ought to handle the all weather on breeding (by Mizzen Mast, U.S.A. Suffix). Roger Charlton had the following to say on his website today:

"At Kempton this evening we have a runner in the two divisions of the seven furlong two year old maiden race.  Sea Defence (USA) runs for Juddmonte Farms in the 6.40 pm, he is the son of their stallion Mizzen Mast and a half brother to five winners.  He is big backward colt who has more growing and maturing to do but he is showing plenty of promise in his work."

That's akin to a glowing reference coming from Charlton, who doesn't say much about his horses before they run. The trainer's first time out horses at this time of year usually fall into the category of ready to win two year olds, and three year old projects. Sea Defence would strike me as a horse who should be ready to win if good enough although he won't be knocked about. George Baker isn't my favourite jockey right now and especially not so from a wide draw over seven furlongs here, but it matters a bit less in maidens where ability levels vary quite a bit. If he's good enough and gets a run wide and late, I'll be happy enough.

7.40 Kempton Saoi 1pt each-way AND 3pts win @ 14/1 (Bet Victor, William Hill, guaranteed, 12/1 generally guaranteed) - E/W 2nd @16/1

The favourite here has an all weather maiden win to his name, and is off level weights with the lightly raced six year old Saoi, who was very progressive on this surface last winter and was arguably unlucky not to beat Harry Buckle (another very progressive horse on the surface last winter) at Lingfield with the aforementioned George Baker making his challenge on Lingfield's inside rail for some reason. The selection stays and sees out his races well on the surface, and he looks set for another profitable winter if he can regain his form - he ran poorly at Wolverhampton last time out and has been given a break since because of an injury. Trainer William Knight mentioned him to At The Races onAugust 12th:

“Suffered a little injury on his last appearance which is why he hasn’t run but is back cantering now. I expect him out at the end of September and he likes the all weather. He was progressive on that surface last winter. He’ll be ok off this mark.”

Clearly Saoi has been in training for a few weeks now and it is possible he is being aimed at the final of this series amongst other prizes this winter. He looks very well handicapped and his trainer's A/E values for his last 50 runners coming back from 100+ days off the track are really interesting - they ratio of 1.17 suggests they are very much underbet and represent excellent value, with a profit of +£45.50 to the pound stake for a 91% R.O.I. All in all, it is reasonable to suggest it is worth backing Saoi to do himself justice tonight after his absence. The booking of Jim Crowley is a positive and anything 12/1+ is too big.

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Afternoon Bets:

Two for this afternoon, evening bets will follow before 5.30pm.

1pt each-way double on today's selections, 11/2 and 6/1 generally guaranteed

2.30 Nottingham Twin Appeal 4pts win @ 6/1 (Totesport, Betfred, Bet Victor, William Hill, guaranteed)

Unraced but very much bred to be a two year old looking at his dam's side, and represents a trainer who sent an already gelded two year old out to win a maiden at Ayr's big meeting a couple of weeks back. The selection's sales price rose as a yearling and it is interesting he is sent here as a yearling bonus qualifier - his trainer is astute at picking up these sorts of prizes and at 6/1 in a very bad race, he looks worth chancing. We'll include him in an each-way double.

3.30 Nottingham Sarpech 4pts win @ 13/2 (Bet Victor, Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 6/1 generally guaranteed)

An immaculately bred son of Sea The Stars, whose progeny are now beginning to shine as the season goes on (another winning first time out filly at Leicester yesterday). The selection cost a pretty penny and represents connections who definitely won't be messing about with the likes of handicaps. A Racing Post Trophy entry bodes very well, and a chance is taken he is up to this task on debut - he looks too big a price given his breeding and I have to say the markets in the past two years have not been a good indicator of first time out performance; good news for us as our results over the course of this season show.

Profit & loss: day: -14.80 / month: -51.80 / year: +408.19

Tuesday 8th October 2013

Just one for today.

6.40 Wolverhampton Port Alfred 4pts win @ 6/1 (Bet Victor, Paddy Power, Stan James, Betpack.com, William Hill, guaranteed)

Wolverhampton has been riding strange since the track was treated earlier this summer, and it was apparent yesterday that speed will hold up, it is hard to come from behind, and the inside rail is probably favoured with the exception of the home straight. A draw in stall 2 looks favourable for Port Alfred, who looks something of a short runner on turf but has bundles of speed, is well bred, and may take well to polytrack looking at his pedigree. The progeny of his sire Oasis Dream have an 18% strike rate here, and his trainer's horses have a good strike rate on the surface. The stamina doubts might be less apparent this evening, because it seems early speed goes a long way and horses are struggling to find a turn of pace at the end of even the sprint races. Silvestre De Sousa will most likely keep things simple and he makes appeal at 6/1+.

Profit & loss: day: -4.00 / month: -37.00 / year: +422.99

Sunday 6th October 2013

Two speculative interests at Longchamp.

12.45 Longchamp QATAR PRIX DE L´ABBAYE DE LONGCHAMP (GROUP 1) 

Justineo 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 22/1 (Bet Victor, Stan James, Betpack.com, Coral, Independents, guaranteed)

You need to be fast for this race, even in terms of sprinters, and Justineo's Doncaster run really caught my eye in terms of the raw speed he displayed and his staying power at the end of the race. He looks to have come to himself as a five furlong sprinter and although he is drawn wide here, he has the early toe to tack across and William Buick is a positive booking. This is a tough race to decipher but you can pick negatives in everything. The selection is the right kind of price for a very fast horse in a race that should suit him down to the ground.

3.15 Longchamp QATAR PRIX DE L´ARC DE TRIOMPHE (GROUP 1) 

Al Kazeem 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 20/1 (Bet 365, Paddy Power, guaranteed, 16/1 generally guaranteed)

One of the toughest races of the season I've had to decipher, but with one of the best three horses in the race trading at 16/1+, he becomes a must bet. Deciphering races is all about angles in, and there are a few here. Many have plumped for the Leading Light / easy lead / tough to pass scenario, others the draw in stall 4/5/6 scenario. Treve's trainer made the point that the best horse always wins the Arc, not entirely true but class will usually come to the fore. Ruler Of The World would be a big tempter here but my personal angle in is that the older horses might be better than the three year olds this season, and we have two solid representatives in that category here, Oferve and Al Kazeem. Al Kazeem is around eight times the price of the favourite, but he has been winning Group 1 races all summer and is a model of consistency. The draw has not been kind, but he is now twice the price he would have been as a result. James Doyle has had a hell of a season, and it would be just like him to give this horse a masterful ride from the widest berth and win Europe's most prestigious end of season race. I haven't a clue what the tactics will be, but trip track and ground will be perfect for the horse. A chance is taken at the prices, I make him a 12/1 shot myself and anything bigger is good value.

Profit & loss: day: -6.00 / month: -33.00 / year: +426.99

Saturday 5th October 2013

Some really good racing today and we have three betting interests.

2.15 Redcar Toto Skyllachy 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 16/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Toto Skyllachy is an eight year old now, but he continues to run well for his top handler, who has probably improved him since acquiring him in 2012 (four wins and a string of solid handicap performances since then). What interests me here is the selections' penultimate run over today's course and distance. I would have thought the ground would have been on the soft side for him, but he managed to hit the front having travelled well and was only beaten by two horses who clearly revelled in the conditions, with the three clear. A chance is taken that the selection can improve again on his preferred faster surface - a look at his form suggests he likes the ground on the faster side despite being out of Kyllachy. This big field and a likely strong pace should play into his hands, and if his jockey can simply tuck him in to the pack and produce him at the right time, I would suggest there is scope enough off a mark of OR87 for him to take a hand in the finish.

3.15 Ascot Morache Music 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 22/1 (Bet Victor, Stan James,, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 20/1 generally guaranteed)

Question marks about many of these, and I'm taking a chance Morache Music can produce a lifetime best and win here on a track he definitely enjoys. The selection has a win and a second to his name from two visits here, and he acts well with give in the ground. The galloping track and stiff finish suit him well, as evidenced by his defeat of Desert Law over course and distance last year. He has a potentially tricky draw in stall 18, but Steve Drowne knows him well and is one of the more intelligent jockeys in the weighing room - it won't take much to tuck him in but as to where the pace develops, it is hard to know, and the far side may have an advantage on the basis of yesterday's racing. These are factored into the price, though, and the selection comes here fresher than most with a good prep run behind him at Yarmouth. 20/1+ is too big.

4.35 Redcar Dubai Hills 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 16/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Dubai Hills is another who lines up today fresher than most, having returned from a mid season break with a below par effort at Carlisle last time out, That track doesn't suit him, though, and Redcar's galloping left handed circuit will be much more to his liking, as will faster ground. He may also have come on in terms of fitness. He drops to 0-85 company for the first time in a long time on turf today and although his stamina has to be taken on trust for the ten furlong trip, he has never tried it before so chances are he might find some improvement for it at this stage of his career. He is a relaxed type of horse and I would suggest he will settle and give himself every chance. His stable have a formidable 23% strike rate with older horses at this track over the past five seasons returning a profit of +£13.63 to the pound stake, and at the prices the selection looks well worth chancing with the unknowns certainly factored into the odds.

Profit & loss: day: -13.00 / month: -27.00 / year: +432.99

Thursday 3rd October 2013

We'll be taking the next two days off the racing service and will return on Sunday for Arc day. It's not a Friday or Saturday where we've ever done particularly well, and I think it's a good time to recharge the batteries with the rest of the year in mind - it's going to be very busy indeed between now and Christmas and I fully intend maximising what has already been a fantastic year.

Just one for this afternoon.

3.00 Southwell Master Wizard 5pts win @ 2/1 (Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 15/8 generally guaranteed)

On the short side but still represents value at 15/8+ in my opinion. The selection hails from a yard who have been in good nick this season, who target Southwell races and more often than not with success. Master Wizard is a half brother to Take Cover, who is very good on this surface, and he shaped on his debut last year as if he had at least some of his sibling's ability. He has been off since that debut, but Take Cover doesn't stand much racing either and is best fresh. The stable have no problem getting them ready (Take Cover was beaten a nose in the Steward's Sprint after a long absence) and provided this strong travelling type does act on the surface (every chance on pedigree) I think he should have enough class to see off what might be a moderate bunch of rivals.

Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: -14.00 / year: +445.99

Wednesday 2nd October 2013

Just one for this evening.

8.40 Kempton Glorious Protector 5pts win @ 10/3 (Ladbrokes, guaranteed, 3/1 generally guaranteed)

Disappointed on his only all weather start but had excuses, namely that he was given the wrong type of ride and was keen for much of the race as a result. He has also been off since, which would suggest he probably had a minor problem - he didn't look to be moving that fluently at the finish that day. I have a feeling they think quite a bit of this animal, his maiden form looks very strong in retrospect and the booking of the champion jockey suggests connections aren't messing about. I'm not sure about his potential targets but we'll know more if he wins tonight, and although the price is short enough, I think he could be very well handicapped. Stall three is fine and his jockey certainly knows his way around here (19% strike rate at the track, comes here after riding a treble here last night).

Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: -9.00 / year: +450.99

Tuesday 1st October 2013

Another big priced winner yesterday and September goes down as our best ever month. 

October starts today and the first thoughts of the National Hunt season proper abound, I'm not going to utter the C-word yet as it's a bit early for that but I'm really looking forward to the season ahead.

One for this afternoon, possible evening bets will be sent, details either way before 5.30pm.

5.30 Ayr Rasaman 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 9/1 (Ladbrokes, guaranteed, 8/1 generally guaranteed)

A decent little sprint, but as per the time of year nothing sticks out as overly well handicapped and it may be that the horse who has conditions and the race run to suit will land the spoils by a small margin. Rasaman appeals at the prices. He is a nine year old, but his trainer specialises in older handicappers and the selection's run behind Be Fifty Two at Newmarket last time was a decent one, particularly so given how keen he was early doors. He came home well over the six furlong trip and the return to five at a galloping track with a stiff finish will suit. The likely strong pace will play right into his hands, and he isn't drawn badly in stall 10 to come with a late charge down the outer. Any rail bias would scupper his chances, but that's guessing game territory at this stage and I don't really expect that to transpire. Rasaman knows how to win when things drop right for him, and if he gets the gaps he will be the horse most favoured if the rain stays away (only a few showers in the area and dry last 24 hours).

Profit & loss: day: -4.00 / month: -4.00 / year: +455.99

Monday 30th September 2013

One bet for today.

4.40 Hamilton Barkston Ash 2pts each-way @ 20/1 Bet 365, Paddy Power, Ladbrokes, many independents, get guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP - WON (bfsp: 23.0)

Barkston Ash is an absolute monkey, and nor do I trust these Kyllachys once they decide to chuck the towel in on a regular basis. He has looked all at sea on his last two starts, spitting the dummy at Ayr before totally resenting blinkers at Chester two days ago. There can't be a physical problem, given that he is turned out quickly, and I'm going to take a chance at the prices that the return to better ground, a track he likes, and his favourite headgear will spark a return to his best form, which he had no problem showing when winning at Redcar three weeks ago. He has a piece of form over this course and distance, behind Hopes N Dreams, which if taken literally and reproduced would make him hard to beat, and given that the likely strong pace should suit him, I'm inclined to take a chance on him at a big price. He is probably as likely to come last as first, but he is very good on his day and his trainer has had a couple of horses bounce back from poor runs lately (indeed Barkston Ash has done the same in the past).

Profit & loss: day: +70.90 / month: +195.60 / year: +459.99

Saturday 28th September 2013

Tiger's Tale ensured no loss on the day yesterday, running on well for third.

3.45 Ripon 

Love Island 1pt each-way @ 18/1 (Stan James, guaranteed, 14/1 generally guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP

Seems to act well at Ripon and might well remain progressive. Her Pontefract second last time out looks like solid form and although this is a much better contest, some of her rivals are out of form and / or look handicapped to the hilt and will need career bests to win. I think Love Island represents a good speculative bet at the prices and we'll play each-way and win with a portion of the bet at Betfair SP, which I think has the potential to be 20/1+.

3.50 Newmarket

Dance And Dance 1pt each-way @ 28/1 (Generally guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP

The Rectifier 1pt each-way @ 50/1 (Generally guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP

A strong renewal of this great handicap, but of the unexposed more obvious types, nothing stands out as remotely any value and I feel there could be a minor shock on the cards. Dance And Dance was one of the most overbet horses of the summer, but unlike Mac's Power who filled that role in 2011, the selection has probably had genuine reasons for his failures rather than not finding much off the bridle. He has been handicapped out of things in my view and off a mark of OR95 under his ideal conditions today, he might pop up and what will be an annoyingly big price for some of those who have tipped him all summer long.

The Rectifier is in form, unexposed, improving for his new trainer and hold up tactics, seems to enjoy a big field, and looks a ridiculous price at 50/1. He ticks a lot of boxes for me and the booking of Seamie Heffernan looks very eye catching. A good course run seven days ago does nothing to put me off, and if he improves for the step up in trip and stronger pace, he ought to be thereabouts at a massive price.

Profit & loss: day: -9.00 / month: +124.70 / year: +389.09

Friday 27th September 2013

Just one for this afternoon, a possible evening bet to follow, details before 5.30pm.

5.00 Newmarket 

Stevie Thunder 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 28/1 (Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 25/1 generally guaranteed)

Tiger's Tale 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 16/1 (Ladbrokes, Boylesports, guaranteed, 14/1 generally guaranteed) - E/W 3rd @ 20/1

I sometimes think older horses are underbet, and I think that might be the case here with Stevie Thunder, who excels under today's conditions and looks very well handicapped off a mark of OR83. The selection has a couple of good course runs to his name, but his course and distance second behind Prince Of Johanne in the 2011 Cambridgeshire sticks out a mile. He has a couple of pieces of course form that would give him a chance and, looking through his 2013 form, I can make excuses for him having not performed to his best thus far. He is too well handicapped to ignore and 28/1 is far too big.

Tiger's Tale has the services of the excellent Richard Hughes in the plate and he is another who has strong course form to his name. He excels under these conditions and is still relatively lightly raced for a four year old. I think there has been a concerted effort to protect his handicap mark with a view to a late season campaign in races like this one, and although the Cambridgeshire itself was probably the prime target, the £18k pot is not to be sniffed at and I would make the selection shorter than his current odds of 14/1 in my own book.

Profit & loss: day: +0.00 / month: +133.70 / year: +398.09

Thursday 26th September 2013

Just one for this afternoon, a possible evening bet will follow before 5.15pm but again it's 50-50 at this stage if we'll invest.

3.40 Newmarket Nezar 4pts win @ 6/1 (Totesport, Boylesports, SeanieMac.com, Betfred, Stan James, Betpack.com, independents, guaranteed)

Championship would pick this lot up and carry them based on his Newbury form in May, but he hasn't been seen since Royal Ascot and he is also unproven at this distance and only 4/1. For that reason he is overlooked. Nezar represents a powerful stable and has been doing it on the track. He is by Mastercraftsman and seems to have improved for the step up to seven furlongs. He only won a handicap last time out, but it would have provided invaluable experience and a confidence boost into the bargain. I think he is up to this class or better and he looks progressive. The field are racing on stands side which may help given he hung left when winning at Chester. He looks worth backing at 6/1 with William Buick in the plate. A fully fit Championship is probably the danger.

Profit & loss: day: -4.00 / month: +133.70 / year: +398.09

Wednesday 25th September 2013

Another nice winner yesterday, thanks for the kind comments sent in and I hope you enjoy spending the winnings! We're +407pts for the year now (dependent on your prices) and we're in a strong position to kick on from here. We've had a very profitable summer and I feel things are pretty much going better than they ever have been.

Very unappealing stuff today. We might have an evening bet released before 5.00pm, but that's 50-50 at this stage. One afternoon selection.

4.35 Perth Most Honourable 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 12/1 (Generally guaranteed)

This does not look a particularly good juvenile hurdle and a chance is taken on the well bred Darley cast off being good enough to land the odds on debut. You would imagine, given his breeding, that he will have plenty of speed and perhaps more flat ability than some of his rivals today. Following on from that, it is interesting his trainer has proved adept with having three year old jumpers ready for action in recent years. From just two three year olds I could find, one finished second on hurdling debut at 13/2, and one won a bumper at 7/1. A five year old mare also won a bumper first time out at 40/1. This to me would suggest the trainer is not in the habit of sending his horses to the races in need of experience. Most Honourable was bought in January, so would have had plenty of time to settle in. At a double figure price, I think he is too big and certainly worth chancing in a contest like this.

Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: +137.70 / year: +402.09