Friday 18th October 2013

Sweeping Rock didn't seem to give his running despite being heavily backed last night, something may have been amiss with the horse, I will check the B.H.A. site later.

We may have evening bets, released before 5.30pm.

Just one for this afternoon.

2.30 Redcar First Commandment 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 66/1 (Ladbrokes, guaranteed, 50/1 generally guaranteed)

It's more than tempting to get involved with Cheltenham this afternoon, and there is a good card at Haydock too, but the fact is there are very few decent betting opportunities and it's to Redcar we go for what amounts to a minimum stakes speculative bet. These Redcar maidens can throw up strange results, and given the ground is soft I'm keen to field against both Kommander Kirkup and Locky Taylor, who is by Bushranger, whose progeny don't seem to be as good on soft ground on statistics to date. On all known evidence Kommander Kirkup should win this by ten lengths, but I'm just not sure about him on the ground and I feel he is more of a 6/4 shot than 8/11 - as such he and the Bushranger colt make the market and there are some big prices floating around elsewhere.

The problem is, nothing else really sticks out and many of these may never win a race. Neither of Beautiful Stranger or Danzero look good enough based on form and visual evidence so far. First Commandment, however, seems to be thought of as a two year old sprinter because he was sent off just 6/1 for his debut in a York maiden before disappointing. He didn't reappear until the end of September, where he was good enough to lead at Ripon before fading as concentration and work ethic were not his strong points. It is interesting, then, that a first time eyeshield is applied today, and assuming the horse is allowed to run on his merits (this is third time for a handicap mark after all) he looks too big at 50/1+ against what may for the most part be a poor field. He is a fine, strapping gelding and soft ground should hold no fears. His half brother Confessional finished second in a first time eyeshield at 16/1, and wears it to this day. That horse handles soft ground too, and in a race where it is difficult to find positives about many of the runners (and nothing else looks remotely a value price) he is selected at a price which will reward us well even if he can snatch a place.

Profit & loss: day: -3.00 / month: +8.87 / year: +471.87