4.30 Salisbury Night's Watch 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 14/1 (Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 12/1 generally guaranteed)
This is actually a diabolical 0-70 handicap for three year olds, with none of the horses who line up having managed a win in 2013. That tells you all you need to know, and we have the likes of Hero's Story trading as low as 10/3, priced up purely on his stable's recent form and jockey booking (he is moderate at best). This looks a nice piece of placement for Night's Watch, who is one of the more unexposed horses in the line up. He is by Authorized and ought to get better with time and distance, and he showed some ability in a Kempton maiden at two, finishing fourth over a mile. His action suggests soft ground on turf will be to his liking, and it is worth noting his sire's progeny boast a very impressive 24% strike rate on heavy ground, 17% on soft from a decent if not huge sample size. The selection ran much better than his finishing position suggests on his belated reappearance at Leicester recently. That was in a very good maiden for older horses, and having been keen early on he travelled well into the race to challenge three furlongs out, before his early endeavours and perhaps a lack of race fitness took their toll. He was allowed to come home in his own time, but crucially the racing press have failed to note the promise of the run, and as such he is underestimated in the market today. William Jarvis has not had a good season, but he had two horses, Hefner and Blurred Vision, outrun big odds on Saturday at York, and if the selection has come on for his first run of the year during his three week break, he ought to be able to take a hand in the finish at the very least. His keenness needs to be sorted out but the step back to ten furlongs should help and I wouldn't be surprised to see him allowed to bowl along. Anything in double figures represents value, 12/1+ is far too big.
Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: -91.30 / year: +368.70
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