5.50 Wolverhampton Izzy Boy 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 16/1 (Generally guaranteed)
This is a risky one but you have to wonder why Mark Johnston is persisting with this gelding and he is bred to be much better than he has shown so far. He spat the dummy last time out at Southwell, slowly away and never in contention. That was a much better race, though, and if he improves at all for the polytrack surface he might be able to beat this lot. It is a bad race and he has already shown enough to suggest he is capable of winning in 0-60 company. He is probably as likely to finish last as first, but if he is sharper at the start of the race I would expect a bold showing. He two other engagements in the coming days and it appears connections are keen to get him winning races as soon as possible.
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Afternoon Bets:
Two for this afternoon, there is a small chance of an evening bet, details before 5.30pm.
3.50 Newmarket Lieutenant Miller 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 14/1 (Generally guaranteed) - E/W 3rd
Represents a trainer who has a good record in this race, and has looked over the summer as if this kind of test would be tailor made for him. Ran really well at Royal Ascot just finding one too good, and seems to have been put away with this race in mind since. The booking of Ryan Moore is obviously a major positive, and I'm quite surprised at odds of 14/1. He has rock solid form in the book where some of these have certain factors that need taking on trust, and despite a high draw he is too big in the betting to ignore.
3.30 York Khubala 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 12/1 (Bet 365, Paddy Power, Ladbrokes, independents, guaranteed)
Khubala is another horse who has threatened to win a big one all summer. His form behind Tropics sticks out, and although he will need the usual luck in running in terms of pace at this track, I quite like his draw in stall 16 looking at the positions of a few of the fancied runners around him. Double figure odds are too big, I would make him around 8/1 second favourite myself and although Baccarat will be a tough nut to crack, the selection makes plenty of appeal.
Profit & loss: day: -6.50 / month: -81.30 / year: +378.70
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