There is a small chance of an evening bet, released before 5.30pm.
2.55 Ascot Belle De Crecy 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 11/1 (Bet 365, Bet Victor, Paddy Power, Many independents, guaranteed) - E/W 2nd
Her trainer / jockey rides this track like no other, and I am hoping Johnny Murtagh (currently the best jockey in the world to my mind) can sign off what has been a truly incredible year for him with a Group 1 win on this filly. She seems to be improving fast and her win last time was impressive - she had no trouble travelling off a very strong pace set by Shirocco Star and quickening on the home turn while others took much longer to get involved and never landed a blow (Shirocco Star ended up tailed off). This to me is the sign of a horse who can step up to Group 1 company, and I find it interesting there are few pace angles in this race - Murtagh might just get his own way in front. Her stamina must be taken on trust but she is a half sister to The Miniver Rose who won the Park Hill, that bodes well in my view and at double figures and the dead eight lining up, we can cover most of our stake in the event of a place by staking accordingly as above.
3.30 Ascot - Queen Elizabeth II Stakes -
Soft Falling Rain 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 15/2 (Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 7/1 Bet 365, Ladbrokes, William Hill, guaranteed).
It's a case of spot the irony here as Soft Falling Rain doesn't want too much rain to scupper his chances of landing this great prize. However, he is untested on a soft surface rather than proven not to like it. Added to that, most of the last band of rain looks like it will miss Ascot (just about), which is good news for connections - I can't see too much rain hitting the course before the off and I think at worst they'll get 1mm. If the ground does ride more like good to soft on the straight course, I think he has every chance. He is by National Assembly, who is part of the Danzig line that was responsible for a whole pile of Royal Ascot winners this year. The dam is U.S.A. bred and I think Soft Falling Rain is a model to appreciate Ascot's sand based surface. He has won on artificial surfaces already, which is a big pointer in picking out horses who will act at Ascot. He comes here fresher than most, off the back of a career best effort, and the ground is pretty much the only possible negative - it seems connections have even entered a pacemaker for him. I think the ground has been over factored into the price here and I'm happy to support him at 7/1+.
4.35 Kelso Kilgefin Star 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 12/1 (Totesport, Betfred, Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 11/1 Bet Victor, guaranteed) - WON
Michael Smith is a trainer I have my eye on, his string are going places and he tends to have horses ready to go first time out as I have alluded to before. This ex-pointer makes his debut for the stable this afternoon and I think he'll enjoy the galloping track and the cut in the ground. The top two in the market don't set an exacting standard and I think there is plenty of scope in backing him each-way against them to a decent total stake of six points. He does look more of a chaser but as a progressive point winner a novice hurdle like this should be within his scope. The only worry would be that he didn't actually win a point until May 31st, suggesting the maiden he won may not have been of high a standard (some events at that time of year do tend to be weaker), but he is only a five year old and is probably just finding his feet. I have noted his trainer improving similar types, and in a weak contest like this at a track where his trainer likes having winners (last runner won a bumper easily first time out at 16/1) he is worth taking a chance on before the market cottons on to the trainer's ability.
Profit & loss: day: +42.60 / month: +51.47 / year: +514.47
No comments:
Post a Comment