Sunday 6th October 2013

Two speculative interests at Longchamp.

12.45 Longchamp QATAR PRIX DE L´ABBAYE DE LONGCHAMP (GROUP 1) 

Justineo 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 22/1 (Bet Victor, Stan James, Betpack.com, Coral, Independents, guaranteed)

You need to be fast for this race, even in terms of sprinters, and Justineo's Doncaster run really caught my eye in terms of the raw speed he displayed and his staying power at the end of the race. He looks to have come to himself as a five furlong sprinter and although he is drawn wide here, he has the early toe to tack across and William Buick is a positive booking. This is a tough race to decipher but you can pick negatives in everything. The selection is the right kind of price for a very fast horse in a race that should suit him down to the ground.

3.15 Longchamp QATAR PRIX DE L´ARC DE TRIOMPHE (GROUP 1) 

Al Kazeem 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 20/1 (Bet 365, Paddy Power, guaranteed, 16/1 generally guaranteed)

One of the toughest races of the season I've had to decipher, but with one of the best three horses in the race trading at 16/1+, he becomes a must bet. Deciphering races is all about angles in, and there are a few here. Many have plumped for the Leading Light / easy lead / tough to pass scenario, others the draw in stall 4/5/6 scenario. Treve's trainer made the point that the best horse always wins the Arc, not entirely true but class will usually come to the fore. Ruler Of The World would be a big tempter here but my personal angle in is that the older horses might be better than the three year olds this season, and we have two solid representatives in that category here, Oferve and Al Kazeem. Al Kazeem is around eight times the price of the favourite, but he has been winning Group 1 races all summer and is a model of consistency. The draw has not been kind, but he is now twice the price he would have been as a result. James Doyle has had a hell of a season, and it would be just like him to give this horse a masterful ride from the widest berth and win Europe's most prestigious end of season race. I haven't a clue what the tactics will be, but trip track and ground will be perfect for the horse. A chance is taken at the prices, I make him a 12/1 shot myself and anything bigger is good value.

Profit & loss: day: -6.00 / month: -33.00 / year: +426.99