8.10 Kempton Mohair 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 22/1 (Bet Victor, guaranteed, 20/1 generally guaranteed)
A really poor race and, although he may not have enjoyed Wolverhampton's track as it is currently riding, Jezza faded far too quickly for my liking last time out to be of any interest at 4/1 this evening. A chance is taken on Mohair, who looks well handicapped based on one piece of form for James Fanshawe where she posted an RPR of 69 over twelve furlongs here in a race that worked out well last year. The selection has since gone to Luke Dace, and belatedly reappeared for 2013 at Lingfield last month. That was over ten furlongs and she wasn't given a hard time at all, held up in rear and not asked too many questions, staying on under tender handling in the home straight. She steps up to two miles tonight and it is obviously part of a plan, because she is entered over the same trip at Lingfield in a few days time. This trainer has routinely stepped horses up in trip in the past with some success - American Spin comes to mind, who is a decent three mile hurdler these days - and his older horses boast an 8/68 12% strike rate at Kempton returning a level stakes profit of +£44.50 to the pound. The filly is by Motivator but there are question marks about two miles on the dam's side of the pedigree - saying that, she looks well in off OR55 and at a big price, she looks the value in the race.
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Afternoon Bets:
We were unlucky yesterday on a couple of counts. Firstly, I have to admit I had my eye on Argot as well as Twin Appeal in the Nottingham maiden. There was no money for the horse at all, (BSP 38.0) and I thought the pedigree suggested the all weather this winter would see the horse find form, but he went and won handily. Why would I say that after the event? Because it's actually good news for us. It further highlights that unraced horses are not only being underbet, but that many trainers are reluctant to put money down first time up either down to not knowing how the horse will perform, or an unwillingness to add pressure to the situation which might see the jockey give a young horse an overly hard ride. It is important to pick and choose, but these opportunities do exist.
Sarpech got a bad ride. Having missed the break he was rousted far too much in order to find his stride - the jockey might as well have ridden a finish - and then reined back when he met inteference early on. He ran well in the circumstances and that will not be picked up by most race readers.
Saoi ran a tremendous race, but the favourite was just too good. Still, I'd rather have been on Saoi at 16/1 than the favourite at 2/1 in the circumstances and we got our money back on the bet.
One for this afternoon, with possible evening bets to follow.
5.10 Ayr Imperial Bond 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 20/1 (Bet 365, Bet Victor, Ladbrokes, many independents, guaranteed)
I'm very surprised at the price of Imperial Bond this morning. He was no match for Dawn Calling last time out, but that rival is rated OR78 now and will probably end up an OR90+ horse in time in my opinion (I'll forgive any three year old a bad run in an all aged sprint handicap with lunatics like Barkston Ash to contend with!). The selection was really starting to gallop on at the finish, and it is interesting Jason Ward has sent him on a seven hour round trip to Ayr for this 0-60 event, again booking the services of the excellent 5lb claimer Kevin Stott (his only ride of the day). I have to confess to being a bit of a fan of the trainer, he operates a small string of cheaply bought types and gets them to win in turn, doing particularly well with fillies.Imperial Bond has been put up 13lb, but I'm inclined to think that hardly matters with the good maiden run behind him and I'm giving the handicapper the benefit of the doubt here. Ward's horses tend to go well on soft ground - three winners and five places from thirteen horses to run on soft or heavy ground over the course of the trainer's short career would suggest he buys horses who are likely to handle give underfoot. An impressive A/E value of 1.51 suggests his horses under these conditions are very much underbet, although a sample size of thirteen is very small. The selection should handle today's conditions on breeding (forget the Redcar run last year, the horse hadn't come to), and I just think he might enjoy Ayr's more galloping track and the cover he is likely to get in a field of handicappers rather than a field of no hopers like many of those he ran against last time. Of course these aren't very good handicappers, and I think a 0-60 on this type of ground should be his for the taking over the course of the coming weeks. He hasn't "learned" to win yet, so with 5/1 being paid for him to run in the first three, a decent each-way bet and added 1pt win looks the call at the prices.
Profit & loss: day: -9.00 / month: -60.80 / year: +399.19
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