One selection for this evening.
8.20 Kempton Sweeping Rock 4pts win @ 15/2 (Bet Victor, guaranteed, 7/1 generally guaranteed)
Sweeping Rock caught the eye last time out being ridden for a turn of foot in a staying race that was run at an absolute crawl, travelling well turning in for home but allowed to stay on the bridle and eventually meeting trouble. You can't be too hard on the apprentice rider (although Michael Murphy has been around a while now and it wasn't his finest ride), but the booking of William Buick this evening is a real bonus here. He is very aware tactically and you would assume the trainer, who I'm sure is desperate for a winner, has told him to ride the horse more forcefully. I think he has a bit in hand of his current mark of OR56 (ran to RPR 60 last time over course and distance) and he has improved slowly with racing. If he comes on again tonight and gets a better ride, he will be very hard to keep from getting involved in the finish. The race he ran in last time was probably better than this, it was an all aged affair too and he is back against his own age group this evening. Trainer form is a worry, but he did have won finish second in the opener tonight which bodes well for Sweeping Rock's chance. He is bred to be a bit better than this and, with stamina and ability to handle the surface assured unlike some of the others, he makes plenty of appeal at 7/1+.
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Afternoon Bets:
Another very good day yesterday with Johnno landing what was a big bet for an 18/1 shot. He was well punted, but a 30c Rule 4 was an annoyance - I didn't fancy the favourite at all, and the bookmakers then shortened it on course to increase the Rule 4 they took.
Two for this afternoon, and a possible evening bet to be released before 5.30pm.
2.10 Brighton Charitable Act 4pts win @ 7/1 (Bet 365, Totesport, Betfred, guaranteed, 13/2 generally guaranteed) - WON
Has looked at times as if he isn't putting it all in, and he did look around him a couple of times when second at this track on his penultimate run. He may have lacked for fitness that day following an absence, and I thought he got a funny ride from Jimmy Fortune last time out. Fortune looked down as if something was amiss (or perhaps the horse was going too well?!) and eased him right off, despite the horse continuing to travel quite powerfully. First time blinkers are applied today and the progeny of Cadeaux Genereaux have a good record on soft ground. Anything 6/1+ looks fair.
3.10 Brighton Armourer 2pts each-way @ 20/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
It is rare that I stake straight each-way, but you would have made a decent few quid backing all William Muir's juveniles and three year olds first time out this season to each-way stakes. They have generally been tuned up and ready to go first time, if not at peak fitness. This looks a winnable race, the gamble Classical Art is not for me (it's being backed because of the sire's record on this ground and is something of a "sexy second time out" horse), Stosur looks solid but no superstar, Bishop Wulstan is first time out for Hannon and is respected and Nakeeta is first time gelded (Sheena West awaits?!). I'm not keen on the profile of either Balding runner, and at 20/1 Armourer makes appeal. He is really well bred, cost his handler 30,000GNS, has soft ground influence in his pedigree, and is entered in the Derby. Martin Dwyer turns up for the one ride, and I just think this is another example of a well bred unraced horse from a less than prolific yard who is overpriced. Anything 14/1+ would be good value in my view, 20/1 is taking the biscuit.
Profit & loss: day: +20.00 / month: +11.87 / year: +471.87
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