One very speculative interest for this evening.
6.10 Kempton Cincuenta Pasos 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 66/1 (Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 50/1 and 40/1 generally guaranteed) E/W 3rd
I've been banging on all flat season about certain unraced horses being underbet, and our record over the course of the season with unraced horses suggests there is an edge to be had given the right circumstances. As such, I can resist a ver small each-way interest on Cincuenta Pasos at the current prices. The selection is quite well bred for this test, being by Footstepsinthesand, whose progeny are better on artificial surfaces than turf, and out of a dam who, although unplaced on her only start, is related to a Group 2 winner and posted a fair RPR of 55 on her only start. This is a really speculative bet, but the horse is overpriced based on its breeding and you only have to look back two years to see Tropics finished second, an unconsidered 66/1 shot, on his debut here despite his breeding. This is a bad race, I'm not a fan of the favourite or second favourite, and very little appeals. On the assumption the selection is fit and ready to run on debut, he really should get involved to some degree and I'm happy to take a little chance after a decent afternoon today.
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Afternoon Bets:
A couple of decent flat cards this afternoon and two selections for us at Newcastle. Evening bets for Kempton may follow, details before 5.15pm.
1pt each-way double on this afternoon's selections, 9/2 and 6/1 generally guaranteed. - E/W place double
4.30 Newcastle Keep It Dark 5pts win @ 9/2 (Generally, get guaranteed) - WON
Tony Coyle has his string in fine form, with four winners and three seconds from his last thirteen runners, and he sends Keep It Dark to Newcastle for this six furlong event. The selection is a cheaply bought Luca Cumani cast off who has taken plenty of time to find his feet, but he did manage a win over seven furlongs on good to soft here in April, and there is little doubt he has improved for the drop to sprint trips on his last two outings over five furlongs. He was unlucky not to win against Windforpower, and followed that up by more or less winning the race on his side at Redcar, giving best to a rival who will probably end up rated OR90+ and win some big races who was left alone on the far side. The selection hits the ground really hard, and although his last two runs were on good to firm, the visual evidence of his course win and the action he displays would suggest he should revel in these conditions. I would suggest he might improve again, and if he does he should be capable of winning of this mark, perhaps going in again in the near future.
5.00 Newcastle Bunce 4pts win @ 7/1 (William Hill, guaranteed, 13/2 Bet Victor, Paddy Power, many independents, guaranteed) - E/W 3rd @ 15/2
It was only a poor claimer Bunce won last time, but he carried a decent weight and actually came back on the bridle close home, having been held up early and finished his race really strongly. This is another stiff test, not unlike Hamilton's, and he is of interest because he has won on heavy ground in the past. This is his third time wearing blinkers, and he looks a different horse for their application - he rather lost his way before showing up really well in the first time headgear at Wolverhampton (faded late over seven furlongs), and he won handily last time. If he continues to respond well to them, I think he can go in again having been put up only 4lb for his win. He has won off OR78 in the past, and off OR66 and with the Coyle horse a non runner, this does not look the strongest 0-75 I've seen.
Profit & loss: day: +30.25 / month: -61.05 / year: +398.95
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