Wednesday 16th October 2013

We almost landed a huge gamble last night with Cincuenta Pasos, whom we backed at 66/1 and 50/1, sent off 25/1 and trading as low as 1.56 in running before going down a head and a nose in third place. The place money was decent, and although it could have been much more there's no point in worrying about it. We were well ahead of the market and in the long term that's what pays dividends.

Two for this afternoon - possible evening bets will be released before 5.30pm.

2.30 Lingfield Foxie Girl 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 33/1 (Bet Bright, 28/1 Bet Victor, 25/1 Ladbrokes. Betfair Sportsbook, independents, guaranteed)

Another unraced horse in a maiden auction event that looks there for the taking if the favourite doesn't act on the surface. Foxie Girl is really well bred for this test, being a half sister to Resplendent Nova and Mr. Willis, who were both best on polytrack and indeed very good on the surface. The sire Virtual hasn't had many runners so far but has had an all weather winner in Razor Quest, who appears to have a really good action for the surface. The selection represents John Best, who has not had a good year but loves his winners here and does get occasional first time out two year old winners. Many of them go unbacked despite the trainer's shrewdness, and I have seen a 10/1 winner and 16/1 runner up at this track (the winner in a maiden auction) over the course of the last few years. Of his last 50 first time out horses the actual versus expected ratio is 1.34 which suggests they are somewhat underbet. While the favourite looks to have a good chance here, he is not proven on this surface and the rest who have raced don't look up to that much. We'll take a small chance at 25/1+ on Foxie Girl being good enough to run a place at least.

5.45 Lingfield Johnno 1pt each-way AND 3pts win @ 18/1 (Betfred, Bet Victor, Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 16/1 generally guaranteed) - WON 30c Rule

Johnno has run four times on the all weather, and has recorded figures each time that put him well ahead of today's handicap mark of OR73. He has been racing on turf all summer but opportunities have been hard to come by, because he has struggled with his breathing, and is also 17 hands - huge for a flat horse. This probably explains why he likes the forgiving polytrack surface, and it is interesting connections refit the tongue tie today. Seb Sanders reported that he went ok in it at Ascot, but just didn't let himself down on the surface - John Hills said the horse hardly blew after the race. He was tried without the aid last time but disappointed. He gets first time blinkers and a tongue tie today which is really interesting, and should allow him to focus on his racing. The trainer is in decent form with Dangerous Age winning a couple of races at Wolverhampton lately, and I think is the selection runs his race today he could eat these for breakfast off this kind of mark. There looks to be a bit of pace on, so I'd hope for a hold up ride from stall ten, and for Seb to bring the horse with a wide, late run down the Lingfield straight. Odds of 16/1+ are far too big and I'm happy to take the chance that he puts it all together back in 0-75 company.

Profit & loss: day: +52.92 / month: -8.13 / year: +451.87