6.40 Kempton Sea Defence 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 10/1 (Bet 365, Stan James, Betpack.com, Coral, guaranteed)
We're well into the time of year that Khalid Abdullah sends out a few very good, backward two year olds, and although it has taken a little longer than usual, 16/1 and 5/1 (in Ireland) winners first time out in the last week would suggest it's business as usual. Sea Defence is very well bred, and ought to handle the all weather on breeding (by Mizzen Mast, U.S.A. Suffix). Roger Charlton had the following to say on his website today:
"At Kempton this evening we have a runner in the two divisions of the seven furlong two year old maiden race. Sea Defence (USA) runs for Juddmonte Farms in the 6.40 pm, he is the son of their stallion Mizzen Mast and a half brother to five winners. He is big backward colt who has more growing and maturing to do but he is showing plenty of promise in his work."
That's akin to a glowing reference coming from Charlton, who doesn't say much about his horses before they run. The trainer's first time out horses at this time of year usually fall into the category of ready to win two year olds, and three year old projects. Sea Defence would strike me as a horse who should be ready to win if good enough although he won't be knocked about. George Baker isn't my favourite jockey right now and especially not so from a wide draw over seven furlongs here, but it matters a bit less in maidens where ability levels vary quite a bit. If he's good enough and gets a run wide and late, I'll be happy enough.
7.40 Kempton Saoi 1pt each-way AND 3pts win @ 14/1 (Bet Victor, William Hill, guaranteed, 12/1 generally guaranteed) - E/W 2nd @16/1
The favourite here has an all weather maiden win to his name, and is off level weights with the lightly raced six year old Saoi, who was very progressive on this surface last winter and was arguably unlucky not to beat Harry Buckle (another very progressive horse on the surface last winter) at Lingfield with the aforementioned George Baker making his challenge on Lingfield's inside rail for some reason. The selection stays and sees out his races well on the surface, and he looks set for another profitable winter if he can regain his form - he ran poorly at Wolverhampton last time out and has been given a break since because of an injury. Trainer William Knight mentioned him to At The Races onAugust 12th:
“Suffered a little injury on his last appearance which is why he hasn’t run but is back cantering now. I expect him out at the end of September and he likes the all weather. He was progressive on that surface last winter. He’ll be ok off this mark.”
Clearly Saoi has been in training for a few weeks now and it is possible he is being aimed at the final of this series amongst other prizes this winter. He looks very well handicapped and his trainer's A/E values for his last 50 runners coming back from 100+ days off the track are really interesting - they ratio of 1.17 suggests they are very much underbet and represent excellent value, with a profit of +£45.50 to the pound stake for a 91% R.O.I. All in all, it is reasonable to suggest it is worth backing Saoi to do himself justice tonight after his absence. The booking of Jim Crowley is a positive and anything 12/1+ is too big.
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Afternoon Bets:
Two for this afternoon, evening bets will follow before 5.30pm.
1pt each-way double on today's selections, 11/2 and 6/1 generally guaranteed
2.30 Nottingham Twin Appeal 4pts win @ 6/1 (Totesport, Betfred, Bet Victor, William Hill, guaranteed)
Unraced but very much bred to be a two year old looking at his dam's side, and represents a trainer who sent an already gelded two year old out to win a maiden at Ayr's big meeting a couple of weeks back. The selection's sales price rose as a yearling and it is interesting he is sent here as a yearling bonus qualifier - his trainer is astute at picking up these sorts of prizes and at 6/1 in a very bad race, he looks worth chancing. We'll include him in an each-way double.
3.30 Nottingham Sarpech 4pts win @ 13/2 (Bet Victor, Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 6/1 generally guaranteed)
An immaculately bred son of Sea The Stars, whose progeny are now beginning to shine as the season goes on (another winning first time out filly at Leicester yesterday). The selection cost a pretty penny and represents connections who definitely won't be messing about with the likes of handicaps. A Racing Post Trophy entry bodes very well, and a chance is taken he is up to this task on debut - he looks too big a price given his breeding and I have to say the markets in the past two years have not been a good indicator of first time out performance; good news for us as our results over the course of this season show.
Profit & loss: day: -14.80 / month: -51.80 / year: +408.19
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