Tuesday 26th November 2013

Just one for this evening.

5.20 Wolverhampton Fieldgunner Kirkup 4pts win @ 8/1 (Generally guaranteed)

David Barron tends to place his winter string effectively and he wins some good races at this track with the few horses he sends here. The selection is something of a seven furlong specialist who looks well handicapped off a mark of OR81 and may well improve on this surface over the winter. He was really on his unlucky on his last run here, badly hampered early on by a horse whose saddle had slipped, and he lost momentum and his position as a result. He was looked after and allowed to come home in his own time, and may be seen to better effect this evening with a clear run. He tends to travel strongly and the likely strong pace here should help him, as will a good draw in stall 4.

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Afternoon bets:

Two selections at Southwell, a possible evening bet at Wolverhampton to follow before 4.00pm.

12.40 Southwell Stun Gun 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 10/1 (Bet Victor, guaranteed, 9/1 generally guaranteed) - 

Stun Gun cost £20,000 at the sales as recently as August, and strikes me as an unusual purchase for the Shaw yard, who generally come by cheaply bought horses and end up with the odd decent handicapper. I don't know much about the owner, but this would appear to be a situation where they're looking for a decent horse who will win races sooner rather than later, and as such I'd expect this horse to be ready to do himself justice first time out. Shaw has an excellent record at Southwell over the years, and often brings his horses to the track to gallop. He has a 7/36 19% strike rate with three year olds here over the last five years returning a profit of +91.88 to level stakes. The selection looks a very well put together horse from the picture on Shaw's website, and his breeding is interesting - he is by Medicean (18% strike rate here) and is a half sister to the useful Princess Taylor. This doesn't look a strong contest at all, and although we're taking a chance, the price looks too generous first time out to resist.

1.10 Southwell Razin' Hell 2pts each-way @ 9/1 (Generally guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP - E/W 2nd @ 10/1

The favourite is clear on figures here but Southwell doesn't play by the usual numbers and having watched Resolute run at Doncaster a couple of weeks ago I wonder is his name merited. He has a high head carriage and ducked in behind Jazz fairly quickly when asked to lengthen, and I don't think he is one for maximum faith at odds on. Alan McCabe has booked Luke Morris for Razin' Hell, who had shown nothing until appearing here last week, when he was unlucky not to win. He also almost defied the coffin box stall 1 over six furlongs on what was his course debut - meaning his performance must be marked up. He has it to find on the book, and must prove his stamina for seven furlongs, but Resolute has stall 1 here and Razin' Hell a much better position in stall 5. He has no questions to answer regarding the surface and I have a feeling the others might not see which way he's gone until it's too late.

Profit & loss: day: -6.00 / month: -40.55 / year: +424.95

Monday 25th November 2013

Two for today at Wolverhampton.

1pt each-way double on today's selections, 4/1 and 4/1 generally guaranteed.

4.00 Wolverhampton Delightful Sleep 4pts win @ 9/2 (Generally guaranteed)

Delightful Sleep was unlucky last time out, repeatedly blocked in his run but also forced to race on the rail which is not where you want to be at Wolverhampton just lately. The selection is drawn in stall 1 today, but George Baker is booked in place of Eoin Walsh today and nobody has been riding Wolverhampton better lately in my view. He seems to be aware of the bias that exists and is happy to hold his horses up just off the rail, and bring them wide into the straight. I'm hoping Delightful Sleep gets that kind of ride today and he is probably still unexposed off this mark if the breaks come his way.

5.00 Wolverhampton Slinky McVelvet 4pts win @ 4/1 (Betfred, Bet Victor, guaranteed, 7/2 generally guaranteed)

Had something to find with the principals when winning a claimer last time out but was well backed and, having travelled strongly, won well in the end and was well backed. It may be she has an affinity with this surface and she certainly improved for it. I don't like the look of the favourite here, and I find myself wondering why the selection is as big as 4/1. The Appleby horse also has to prove himself on the surface, and with no questions to answer about the surface I'm backing the filly to follow up her win under a penalty at what looks a good price.

Profit & loss: day: -10.00 / month: -34.55 / year: +430.95

Saturday 23rd November 2013

A cracking day's racing and we have three races of interest. We may also have evening bets, details before 5.00pm either way. As you all know Ascot is one of my favourite tracks on the flat, and it's second only to Cheltenham over jumps for me. No surprise that our selections all run there.

1.00 Ascot Fiddler's Bid 4pts win @ 7/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Fiddler's Bid represents a stable in fine form, and it is interesting his trainer sends him here on his chase debut. He clearly feels there is juice in his hurdles handicap mark of OR124, and given his string's 15% strike rate in handicap chases (a level stakes loss of only -£1.50 backed blind) you would have to think this trainer's placement deserves plenty of credit. His chasers also have a better strike rate than his hurdlers (15% versus 13%) and some of the selection's hurdles form gives him a great chance here. A bumper win here, close third to Ballytober here in a maiden hurdle, and a second to the very decent (potentially high class chaser in my opinion) Uxizandre were the highlights. Chasing was always likely to be his game, and there doesn't seem to be any superstars lurking in here. 7/1 looks a nice price in my view and I think he is likely to be ready first time up.

1.30 Ascot

Florafern 4pts win @ 7/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Scholastica 4pts win @ 7/1 (Boylesports, SeanieMac.com, Bet Victor, Ladbrokes, Coral, guaranteed) - WON

In hindsight Florafern had a hell of a task conceding 23lb to Tweedledrum in this race last year. She was only beaten a length and that rival went on to win twice more and ended the season rated 21lb higher. She goes well fresh and with her trainer's string in good form, she is a no brainer here from just 2lb higher. I make this race between two mares, and I don't mind shelling out a similarly decent stake on Tom Symond's Scholastica. Symonds trained Tweedledrum and obviously targets these mares hurdles (he had Midnight Belle, who landed a nice touch for us in late January, entered here at the five day stage; she has been rerouted to the Listed hurdle at Kempton on Monday). She goes well fresh too on last year's evidence - indeed she might be the type who doesn't stand too much racing as she did lose her form towards the spring of this year. She looks well handicapped on some of that novice form, and as a six year old by Old Vic, there is likely further improvement to come during this winter's campaign.

3.15 Ascot Saved By John 4pts win @ 11/2 (Generally guaranteed)

Ascot on the flat and over jumps generally suits strong travellers, and Tim Vaughan's Saved By John ticks the boxes in that category. He ran a fine race at Aintree on his seasonal reappearance, and had the field well and truly cooked turning for home until he was caught by a race fit, progressive rival, the pair well clear. He drops back in trip by three furlongs this afternoon, but he is such a good mover that I think it may be a positive. If his bold jumping doesn't cause him problems, he should be finishing strongly here. I think Drumshambo was tired at the end of win here last time out, and I'm not surprised he has drifted out to 4/1. Richard Johnson rides this track well (13% strike rate) and I think 11/2 is a decent price for a horse who looks to me as though he is on a very fair handicap mark and open to progression.

Profit & loss: day: +16.00 / month: -24.55 / year: +440.95

Friday 22nd November 2013

One selection for this evening.

6.10 Wolverhampton Attain 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 9/1 (Bet Victor, guaranteed, 8/1 generally guaranteed)

Attain is 0-17, but runs his best races over this course and distance and was probably sent to the front too soon last time out, when he matched a rival whom he would have been 3lb better off with in a handicap, until the final hundred yards. This race looks fairly well loaded with pace and I'm hoping this good 5lb claimer will choose to hold Attain up a bit longer and bring him with a wide, late run. The selection is drawn in stall 9, which I feel is a major advantage because I think there is a bias against the inside rail at Wolverhampton just lately - horses that race close to the rail just aren't winning. Timing will be everything here, but the selection appears to be getting his act together, and I can't fault his attitude or handicap mark based on that last run. 8/1+ is too big.

Profit & loss: day: -4.00 / month: -40.55 / year: +424.95

Thursday 21st November 2013

Just one for this evening.

7.40 Kempton Good Authority 2pts each-way AND 3pts win @ 8/1 (Ladbrokes, 15/2 Bet Victor, Stan James, Betpack.com, Independents, all guaranteed)

Good Authority is a relatively lightly raced six year old of 26 runs, who is admirably consistent on all surfaces and doesn't seem to run many bad races. He p[osted lifetime best Racing Post Ratings of 92,94,95 on three consecutive runs last summer at Goodwood and Ascot, before his form tailed off very slightly. He has been given a break since and has often run well when fresh in the past. He is a seven furlong specialist and has won twice over the trip on the all weather including over course and distance.He posted an RPR of 91 from a mark of OR84 over course and distance when fourth to Numeral around this time last year, but I don't see any reason why he can't improve again this winter on the all weather. I find it really interesting he gets in here off a mark of OR82, which is definitely one he can defy, and I think if he gets the decent pace he requires he should go very close to winning. That is not guaranteed here, but at the prices he looks a cracking bet and this doesn't look the strongest 0-90 - I don't see many unexposed sorts in here. A draw in stall four is fine and Ted Durcan rides. 7/1+ is too big and we'll have a decent stake.

Profit & loss: day: -7.00 / month: -36.55 / year: +428.95

Wednesday 20th November 2013

Just one additional selection today.

5.30 Kempton Truancy 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 11/1 (Paddy Power, guaranteed, 10/1 generally guaranteed) - E/W 3rd

This isn't a strong looking maiden when you actually look at the form each horse has achieved, as opposed to sales prices and pedigrees. A few of these might not live up to their price tags, but Truancy has at least seen the track already and I'm inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt based on that appearance. He showed plenty of speed and looked a really nice mover, but seemed to lose his action and fell in a hole rather quickly after, and was soon eased. He has been off 75 days and I would suggest he has had some sort of minor problem. It is interesting Karl Burke (who got him from Alan Berry) sends him down to Kempton, and Robert Winston is booked to ride. He is bred to go on this surface being a half brother to none other than Delcaration Of War, and his action suggests he should enjoy it. The whole profile of this horse is unusual and I'm not sure if there was some sort of skulduggery going on because he doesn't seem the typical type to be trained by Alan Berry. Either way, he holds a leading chance this evening if he puts it all together, and he looks too big at double figure prices.

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Afternoon bets:

Just one for this afternoon - evening bets will follow before 4.00pm.

2.30 Lingfield If So 5pts win @ 7/2 (Totesport, Betfred, Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 10/3 generally guaranteed)

A competitive looking sprint handicap but, all things considered, If So's claims look excellent here. She is 2/2 over course and distance, and posted a lifetime best last time out at Kempton in a race not run to suit where the winner got first run on her under an excellent Adam Kirby ride. There is plenty of pace on here, anda good draw in stall four should mean she only needs normal luck in running to unleash her turn of foot at the end of the contest. I think this is a really good filly who should still be progressive off OR91, and could be better than a handicapper. It wouldn't surprise me to see her at Royal Ascot next year, given her trainer's record with this type of horse, and I would make her closer to 5/2 to win today.

Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: -29.55 / year: +435.95

Tuesday 19th November 2013

A nice winner for us earlier.

Our hands tend to be a little tied at this time of year with racing starting so early - the markets have only just settled and bets have to be sent within a short timeframe. Today I'm adding an additional selection which was on our shortlist this morning, we may have further bets before3.30pm for Wolverhampton.

3.40 Southwell Putin 1pt each-way AND 3pts win @ 12/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) - E/W 3rd

This stayed on the shortlist this morning because I wasn't sure about Phil McEntee's stable form, but he had Two No Bids run really well in the last, looking very fit and only getting caught close home. Putin becomes a really decent bet if we know he is ready to go this afternoon. The selection has actually won here over trips ranging from seven furlongs to a mile and a half, but he improved this summer for the drop to sprinting and he has no trouble with five furlongs these days. He is three pounds below his last winning mark of OR61 now, following a couple of below par efforts, but his last run here was ok from stall one over a trip which probably stretches him. He is up against quite a few professional losers this afternoon and if he can get close to the lead from a decent draw in stall nine, I think he will take some pegging back. His favourite headgear combination returns and he looks big in relation to the likes of Hannah's Turn, who hasn't showed anything since March (including on this surface).

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Afternoon bets:

Two for this afternoon, evening bets will follow before 3.30pm.

12.10 Southwell Like Clockwork 4pts win @ 7/1 (Bet 365, guaranteed, 13/2 generally guaranteed)

Like Clockwork is by Rail Link, whose stock are very effective on polytrack, but about whose progeny there is very limited evidence available regarding performance on fibresand. Rail Link is on the Dansili line, though, and Dansili himself has produce some notable fibresand performers. There is promise on the dam's side that the selection will act on the surface: he is related to Zenarinda who travelled really well here on a couple of occasions and is twice a runner up at the track. Like Clockwork has a couple of good all weather runs to his name, notably a strong travelling win at Kempton last year, and given that horse and stable are back in decent form, he appeals as the type to have a profitable winter on the all weather. Stall 12 wouldn't bother me particularly, and he is ridden by a jockey who has been doing well for the stable just lately. This isn't a strong contest and 6/1+ is too big.

12.40 Southwell Chrissycross 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 10/1 (Bet 365, guaranteed, 9/1 Bet Victor, guaranteed, 8/1 generally guaranteed) - WON

Chrissycross looks a natural on this surface and both her runs here have been really strong, a wide margin winner of a maiden and a close second to Peter's Friend in October where the pair were well clear of some good fibresand horses. The selection is 8/1+ today where Peter's Friend is as low as 5/2 which looks all wrong to me. Chrissycross has the worst of the draw in stall one, which is a reverse of what happened last time when Peter's Friend defied stall 2 and being trapped on the inner to win, but I still think she is too big here. There is pace in the race with Maakir, Tenbridge and one or two others preferring to race prominently. This could set up for a closer, and Chrissycross is a strong travelling hold up horse who could benefit from a quiet ride. It won't be easy from stall one, but Robert Winston rides this track well and at the prices she looks a knocking bet.

Profit & loss: day: +24.25 / month: -24.55 / year: +440.95

Cheltenham Open Meeting 2013 - Day Three

Nice to get the big race winner yesterday, which put us ahead on the day. A second winner today would ensure a profitable meeting.

1:00 Mallard Pawnbrokers And Family Jewellers Conditional Jockeys´ Handicap Hurdle Cl3 2m5f

Selection: Timesishard 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 50/1 (Bet Victor, guaranteed, 40/1 generally guaranteed)

Timesishard is a second season novice hurdler who is arguably unexposed at this trip, and has some decent form from last season including a third at Cheptsow in a race I expect to work out well. He represents a trainer who sent out a winning hurdler yesterday on seasonal debut, and I just think the selection is way overpriced at the odds here. This doesn't look the strongest of contests and Lieutenant Miller, who does nothing once he hits the front and isn't a stable star of Hendersons, is as short as 7/2. I can pick holes in the form of many of these; Sausalito Sunrise is a notable exception but his fitness must be taken on trust and at the prices, a small interest on a horse who I think is twice the price he should be might pay handsome dividends.

1:35 Sky Bet Supreme Trial Novices´ Hurdle (Registered As The Sharp Novices´ Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m110y

Not really a betting contest for me, but if I was asked to name the winner, The Liquidator would be top of my list. - WON

2:10 Racing Post Arkle Trophy Trial Novices´ Chase (Registered As The November Novices´ Chase) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m

Anther race I wouldn't like to get involved in heavily. Dodging Bullets is a tentative nomination to land the spoils, but I wouldn't be surprised to see an upset. - WON

2:40 Shloer Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 2m

Selection: Kid Cassidy 4pts win @ 5/1 (Bet 365, Totesport, Betfred, Bet Victor, William Hill, guaranteed) - WON

Kid Cassidy ran really well behind Alderwood in the closing two mile handicap at the festival over course and distance here in March, and that form is taken to be enough to see him defeat Sire De Grugy here, in receipt of 10lbs. I think this will be a close run thing, but the favourite is Even money and Kid Cassidy five times the price. A.P. McCoy is booked and despite concerns in the racing press about the form of the Henderson stable, I am loathe to write his horses off based on a small sample size of runners, many of whom have been overbet anyway.

3:15 StanJames.com Greatwood Hurdle (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 2m110y

Selections:

Sametegal 3pts win @ 11/1 (Bet 365, Bet Victor, Stan James, Betpack.com, Coral, guaranteed)

Kashmir Peak 3pts win @ 11/1 (Bet 365, Stan James, Betpack.com, Ladbrokes, Coral, guaranteed)

This doesn't look the strongest renewal of this contest, it lacks a potential superstar at the head of the market and the race may well go the way of a well handicapped, decent horse as opposed to something at the top of the weights as has been the case in recent years on more than on occasion. Sametegal carries 11-4 here; I was impressed with the manner of his victory on seasonal debut last time out. He was in front long enough and pulled out more (going away at the line) when asked. He was ridden as if he would come on for the run, and Paul Nicholls may have had this race in mind all along. Daryl Jacob rides this hurdles track really well and 11/1 is too big.

Kashmir Peak represents John Quinn, one of the best trainers of hurdlers around. He is lower in the weights and is a real potential lurker. He comes here off the back of a career best flat effort at Doncaster where he was unlucky to be pipped by Thomas Hobson (raced away from that rival), and the stable could not be in better form this autumn, Zaplamation landing a decent handicap hurdle at Wetherby for them yesterday. Dougie Costello is no stranger to Cheltenham (won the Triumph on Coutrywide Flame for Quinn) and anything in double figures looks too big.

3:50 Fairlawne - Festival Jockey Club Fine Dining Bumper (Standard Open NH Flat Race) (Listed Race) Cl1 2m110y

No bet here, but I've been quite impressed with Champagne At Tara thus far and he makes a certain amount of appeal at around 4/1.

Profit & loss: day: +11.00 / month: -48.80 / year: +416.70

Cheltenham Open Meeting Day Two

Another excellent card today, probably the highlight of the three days, and we'll hope for a better return than Friday.

12:40 JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial (Registered As The Prestbury Juvenile Hurdle Race) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m110y

Selection: Guitar Pete 3pts win @ 8/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Guitar Pete has the excellent Brian Cooper in the plate and represents a trainer who is one of the best producers of top class hurdlers around. The selection's form looks very solid and his two battles with Lindenhurst represent the best early season Irish juvenile form in my view. It is hard to know just how good he is, but at the prices he is far too big in relation to Royal Irish Hussar. He shapes like a horse who will eat the hill for brunch, and we'll have a relatively small win only interest. Boylesports will give you your money back if he is second to the favourite.

1:15 Roy Blandford 65 Years At Cheltenham Novices´ Chase Cl2 3m110y

Non account bet: Shutthefrontdoor to win @ 5/2 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Not a race for big stakes but it should be really interesting to watch. I think African Gold is a little overbet in relation to Shutthefrontdoor, who was quite impressive and showed a good attitude on his chasing debut. He would be a token interest at the prices.

1:50 Murphy Group Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 3m3f110y

Selection: Goulanes 4pts win @ 11/2 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Goulanes goes well fresh, looks well handicapped, and represents a stable who obviously have a history of targeting this meeting. The opposition don't look that hot to me, and it looks the sort of race that a horse lined up for the race could win fairly handily. The likes of Spring Heeled and Godsmejudge have good form, but Goulanes looks the most likely to be ready for this test in my view. This looks like a stepping stone to the Hennessy and I think he'll be backed on course and take the beating.

2:30 Paddy Power Gold Cup Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 2m4f110y 

Selections:

Champion Court 3pts win @ 8/1 (Generally guaranteed)

John's Spirit 3pts win @ 9/1 (Bet Victor, guaranteed, 8/1 generally guaranteed) - WON

For me this renewal comes down to the above two horses. Champion Court will be well suited by the way the weights are framed here and he is selected even off OR157 because he jumps so well, and has looked bordering on top class on occasion. He was probably bottomed by taking on Long Run in the King George last year, and it is the mark of a top trainer and horse that he managed to beat Menorah at Aintree in April. He'll have been freshened up since, and this looks like it has been his target for some time.

John's Spirit looks the potential fly in the ointment. He won really easily last month and looks very well handicapped. He is a second season chaser who may or may not have more improvement in him - it is really hard to tell how far he will go - but if he travels as well today in this better grade against better horses, he will certainly be thereabouts at the finish. If he is taken out of his comfort zone by the strong pace, you'll know he isn't up to the class. I think the race could set up for him and he merits backing as well as the Keighley horse.

3:00 Ultima Business Solutions Handicap Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 3m1f110y

Selection: Silver Eagle 4pts win @ 13/2 (Generally guaranteed)

Southfield Theatre is an excellent jumper of hurdles and a horse who I'll be following this year, but he takes a good grip of the bridle and I'm not sure this kind of test with a hill at the end of it will suit him. Silver Eagle represents a trainer whose string are in good form, who sent out a big priced outsider to finish second in the opener on yesterday's card. The selection was just behind Thomas Crapper last time out, that rival franked the form yesterday, and I would suggest there is further progression in Silver Eagle. He is too big at 13/2.

3:35 Neptune Investment Management Novices´ Hurdle (Registered As The Hyde Novices´ Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m5f

Non Account bet: Port Melon to win @ 4/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Not a race to bet in, but Paul Nicholls' Port Melon looks the part on paper and a successful U.K. debut looks a distinct possibility.

4:05 Ukash Mares´ Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race (Listed Race) Cl1 2m110y

Non account bet: Legacy Gold to win @ 3/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Another one from the Pipe team. Legacy Gold probably has the best form in the book and, despite giving weight all around, should go close to winning here. Not a race I'd like to bet in, and the price is short enough for the type of contest, so it'll be a token suggestion only.

Profit & loss: day: +10.00 / month: -59.80 / year: +405.70

Cheltenham Open Meeting Day One

For those who have recently joined us, our service traditionally covers the big flat and jumps meetings with an analysis of each race on the card, and Cheltenham's Open Meeting is the first such fixture this National Hunt season. Account bets only should be followed, non account bets are intended as a guide and for those attending the meeting who want to get involved in each race.

Today's card looks excellent and should throw up multiple pointers for the season ahead.

1:05 Opus Energy Amateur Riders´ Handicap Chase Cl3 3m110y

Selection: Major Malarkey 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 25/1 (Totesport, Betfred, Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed)

I can't be having the favourite at 6/4 here given the fact that his form has all come on flat right handed tracks. He might be a cut above these, but at the prices I'm quite keen on Major Malarkey from a handicapping point of view. His trainer targets this race and it is highly encouraging that the selection's form figures on seasonal debut read 2512 - he clearly goes well fresh and he was able to post a figure of RPR137 this time last year. He has been largely overfaced in good company but this is a real drop in class for him and looks his most winnable opportunity in a while. His handicap mark has dropped to OR126 which gives him a real chance, and this 7lb claimer looks worth his allowance (has been riding a couple of winners and looks tidy). There are caveats, but they are factored into the price and in an ordinary race apart from the market leader, he looks worth backing.

1:35 Paddy Power Handicap Chase Cl2 2m CH4

Selection: Elenika 3pts win @ 10/1 (Bet 365, Boylesports, SeanieMac.com, Bet Victor, guaranteed, 9/1 generally guaranteed)

Interesting Venetia Williams paid £28,000 for this french bred from Paul Nicholls in the spring. He was probably overfaced last season but some of his form looks very solid and I wouldn't be surprised to see him improve for the summer on his back. Aiden Coleman seems to prefer him to Renard but it is hard to know. Elenika's form behind Fairy Rath at Ascot in April looks a cut above what is required here and this doesn't looks a particularly strong division - two mile handicappers tend to win in turn and this contest looks ripe for something well handicapped to improve. A mark of OR129 underestimates what Elenika achieved last season and he may well prove a shrewd buy.

2:05 Steel Plate And Sections Novices´ Chase Cl2 2m4f110y

Selection: The Romford Pele 3pts win @ 7/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Oscar Whisky has to be taken on as a hurdler who has fallen once and has "not fluent" in his form figures on a few occasions. He is also an eight year old and I tend to oppose Novice Chasers who have been running for more than two years under the other code. The Romford Pele was a fast finishing second in a very good race at Chepstow on his chase debut, and he looked a much better horse than he was over hurdles. He jumped soundly and quickly in the main, and I got the impression a stiff finish would really see him come into his own. I'm not sure the second favourite here will handle the ground, and I like the selection even though he has plenty to find with the Henderson horse at the weights. He achieved a stone better than anything he did over hurdles at Chepstow and may just be a natural chaser.

2:40 David Johnson Memorial Intermediate Handicap Hurdle Cl3 2m5f 

Non account bet: Top Gamble to win @ 4/1 (Betfred, guaranteed, 7/2 generally guaranteed)

No bet in this race, but Top Gamble will have been laid out for this given the trainer's connection with David Johnson, and he might just be well handicapped too. Short at the prices but the likely winner in my view.

3:15 Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase Cl2 3m7f

Selection: Diamond Harry 3pts win @ 17/2 (Bet Victor, guaranteed, 8/1 generally guaranteed)

3:50 Countryside Raceday Novices´ Handicap Hurdle Cl3 2m110y

Nick Williams has done well with Maljimar down the years in these races, and it is interesting that horse went to France the other day, winning a similar event handily. Diamond Harry has taken to cross country racing quite well and he has to be of interest from a handicapping perspective here. He is not the horse of old, but he does stay well and the slower pace of these races will play into his hands in my view. James Reveley is a very good pilot, he knows the horse well having ridden him in Paris in June and in work since, and I think at the prices he is well worth taking a chance on. 8/1+ is too big.

Non Account bet: Quick Jack to win @ 9/4 (Generally guaranteed) - WON

No bet here but I do think Quick Jack could be an absolute handicap blot. Ruby Walsh takes the ride and I don't particularly want to take him on. If you're having a good day at the races, a small win interest might give you a return.

Profit & loss: day: -12.00 / month: -69.80 / year: +395.70

Thursday 14th November 2013

Two for this evening.

7.20 Kempton Djinni 4pts win @ 7/2 (Generally, get guaranteed)

I was most impressed by the manner of Djinni's Windsor win on her second start over the summer, and am prepared to forgive her next run at Goodwood on the basis that she has been off since - clearly something was amiss that day. Richard Hughes talked about her as a potential black type filly and I think she is too big in relation to the favourite here. Stomp hasn't really done it on the track, and although she might be a nursery set up, I can't have her at such a short price given she has never fought out a finish. Djinni has been there and done it, her sire's progeny have a 17% strike rate here, and I think she is cracking value at the prices.

7.50 Kempton First Class 4pts win @ 7/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

David Probert is riding out of his skin, and he will need to be aggressive enough to get a decent position on First Class from stall 14 this evening. The selection is a triple course winner who still looks progressive on the surface in my view, but it may be that seven furlongs are required for him to show his best form and I am happy to overlook his run over six here last time out, where he was beaten into third. He was in front soon enough when he won on his penultimate run and he looks to me as the type who might just do enough; he isn't particularly flashy either and I can't see any reason not to send him prominent or indeed into the lead in the early stages here. If a good racing position is secured, I don't think he is a 7/1 shot and I expect him to be involved in the finish given decent luck in running.

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Afternoon bets:

One for this afternoon and possible evening bets for Kempton released before 4.00pm.

2.50 Southwell Elusive Warrior 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 5/1 (Paddy Power, guaranteed, 9/2 generally guaranteed)

Looks a different horse to the mulish, disinterested version of last season and although he is getting on in years, the selection is well handicapped on his old form and seems to have lost none of his enthusiasm. He has struck up a good relationship with claimer Aaron Jones, who rides him well, and he is an out and out course and distance expert. He is also very well drawn in the middle, and I'd be surprised if he didn't go close to winning this. I like the idea of taking a chunk of my stake back if he runs a place and that's how we'll play it.

Profit & loss: day: -14.00 / month: -57.80 / year: +407.70

Wednesday 13th November 2013

A nice winner this afternoon and 40+ points profit depending on what price you got. It does put these losing sequences into their proper perspective when one nice winner goes in, and here's hoping the rest of the month continues in a winning vein.

One for this evening.

4.50 Kempton Silken Express 5pts win @ 7/1 (Bet Victor, Stan James, Betpack.com, independets, guaranteed, 13/2 generally guaranteed)

It looks as though Robert Cowell has targeted this race and although she seems the least favoured of the three on jockey bookings, odds compilers make Silken Express the second of the pair, and I make her the pick. The selection is by Speightstown, whose progeny tend to run a bit on their nerves and can sometimes be best when fresh. They are also much better on artificial surfaces, and although the selection hasn't won on polytrack, there is no reason to assume she can't match her fibresand performance first time out this year at Kempton this evening. She ran really well there in a race that looks strong in retrospect (Demora, the runner up, is now rated OR98) and she is well drawn here in stall four. Some of these are better turf horses, but I think the selection might have a fruitful winter ahead of her and can probably improve off OR89. 13/2+ is too big.

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Afternoon bets:

It was nice to get a winner and take a small profit yesterday, and although we took only 2/1 about Richmond we beat S.P. by a serious percentage and our other selection ran third without threatening. Not selections are running abysmally and it's only a matter of time before there are decent points on the board again.

One for this afternoon and a possible bet for Kempton to be released before 4.00pm.

1.00 Lingfield Royal Preserve 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 10/1 (Bet Victor, Coral, guaranteed, 9/1 Boylesports, SeanieMac.com, independents, guaranteed) - WON

Royal Preserve cost 45,000 Guineas and has a decent pedigree to boot, but he hasn't shown that much on the track as yet and has his third run this afternoon at Lingfield. He did show speed at Leicester last time out, and travelled well on the bridle for a long way before sinking in soft ground on the wrong part of the track. This looks a weak maiden bar the favourite and he has breathing issues meaning I'm very happy to take him on at 2/5. The crucial factor here is that the selection is by Duke Of Marmalade, whose progeny have a 19% strike rate on polytrack (actual versus expected ratio a very profitable 1.34) versus an 8% strike rate on turf (a/e a poor 0.62). It is reasonable to expect significant improvement on the surface and David Probert has been riding very well indeed just lately - he has also been profitable to back blind and is 4/12 33% at Lingfield's all weather track this year.

Profit & loss: day: +37.00 / month: -43.80 / year: +421.70

Tuesday 12th November 2013

Two selections for this afternoon. There is a small chance of an evening bet at Wolverhampton, to be released before today.

1pt each-way double on today's selections, 2/1 and 6/1 generally guaranteed

1.30 Lingfield Richmond 4pts win @ 2/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) - WON

The form of Richmond's chase debut quite simply puts him in with a huge chance from a handicapping perspective here. This looks a fine piece of placement from his trainer, who is exploiting the fact that horses who have raced in a Novice event can run in a handicap under certain circumstances. A mark of OR110 looks very fair and the switch from Ian Williams to a trainer who has a reputation for Novices who jump soundly looks a positive - particularly with Venetia in such good form. He is entered at Taunton in a few days time and strikes me as the type who could run up a sequence. He isn't overfaced here and really should be winning handy. As such, 2/1 is too big - I made him a 6/4 shot.

2.10 Huntingdon Baile Anrai 4pts win @ 13/2 (Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 6/1 generally guaranteed)

Dan Skelton has had a really strong start to his training career and a feature of his representatives this season so far is that they do not lack for fitness first time out. Baile Anrai jumped sketchily over fences last year and looks the type of horse who could thrive for the change of scenery and switching of codes back to hurdles, off a mark of OR125 which he is definitely better than. I can't see much in here to be afraid of and on my book I made him somewhere between 4/1 and 9/2. Broadway Buffalo looks the biggest danger but I rate the selection better than him. I don't think Skelton's first time out switchers will be going off at the likes of these prices for long, and I'm happy to include the selection in an each-way double with Richmond.

Profit & loss: day: +2.00 / month: -80.80 / year: +378.70

Saturday 9th November 2013

One early selection for Saturday. A further update will be released before 1.30pm.

1.15 Doncaster Know Your Name 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 12/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

No yard is in better form right now than that of Dave Evans, and his winter string are really hitting their stride. I find it very interesting he sends this improving juvenile to contest a race at Doncaster where many of the market principals have questions to answer. He is a double figure price because the Evans yard aren't renowned for getting winners here, but this race has been won in the past by horses with a similar profile and it seems the bigger yards are usually represented by horses who aren't stable leading lights. This horse won with a fair bit in hand at Brighton in my view, and he appears to have improved for the application of a visor. Adam Kirby takes the ride and a rise of 3lb in the handicap may not be enough to stop him. He will have no problem with the ground.

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4.05 Doncaster

Pashan Garh 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 16/1 (Sporting Bet, 14/1 generally guaranteed)

Kung Hei Fat Choy 1pt each-way @ 33/1 (Bet Bright, 25/1 generally guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP

I've waited to check ground conditions and Doncaster is now taking more rain and looks like being very soft by the time this last race goes ahead. It will take a lot of getting and it seems best to stick with horses proven in soft ground.

Pashan Garh is a maiden but is in very good form and almost always runs a good race at this track. He stays very well over this trip and handles bottomless ground no problem. He ran a nice race at Newmarket last time out and I think he is a better horse at Doncaster. He is well drawn to get a tow into this from Piceno and the 7lb his claiming jockey takes off could prove invaluable in the later stages. The jockey isn't the strongest, but he is a well balanced apprentice and this horse tends to do things his own way anyway - he isn't a horse you can force into a race and it might be they strike up a good partnership.

Kung Hei Fat Choy was just behind Pashan Garh in a good course and distance handicap run in appalling conditions early this season. He arguably should have won the race, but challenged too soon, and he still looks well handicapped based on that run. A top 3lb claimer has been booked and I think he can be forgiven his Yarmouth run as he raced on the wrong part of the track and was eased two furlongs from home. If he resumes today in the form he was in at Catterick behind Showboating, he has every chance at a price which underestimates his chance.

Profit & loss: day: -10.00 / month: -82.80 / year: +376.70

Friday 8th November 2013

Generally when you've had a losing run, you don't get out of it without a run of seconds and thirds and a look at our recent results suggests a change of fortune is just around the corner. We're beating SP comfortably, and most of our selections are running well without winning.

7.00 Wolverhampton Poetic Belle 2pts each-way @ 20/1 (Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 16/1 generally guaranteed)

A feature of this race is that many of the market principals are not guaranteed to run their race, and the race is priced up based on reputation and jockey bookings. Dustland Fairytale hated the kickback here last time out, and may have developed a dislike for the place (the kickback is no better now). Zaroud is temperamental and although he has been heavily backed on a couple of occasions, he has shown nothing on the track and is more likely to bomb out than win by five lengths. Shamiana is a keen filly who represents connections who might get a win out of her but she does not look anything special. Reggie Bond has been off since July, has shown little, represents an out of form stable yet is a general 6/1 shot.

Poetic Belle looks a very decent straight each-way bet to me. She hasn't won a race yet, but seems to be slowly improving under the care of Shaun Harris, and her last two runs at this track have more or less been lifetime bests (the 57 RPR she achieved last time would probably be enough to win this unless one of the lurkers improves drastically). She chased a strong pace set by a sprinter, Speightstown's Kid, last time she raced here, and faded into second after her early exertions told. Her 66/1 third over six furlongs here came in a better race in September. She is forgiven a below par run at Kempton last time as she was turned out fairly quickly, and she comes here as a filly who seems to be taking her racing well and has a liking for this track. She has a more solid profile than most and is a bigger price than she should be because she does not have a sexy profile. If two or three of the lurkers do improve dramatically, we're out of luck and she won't be good enough, but she has the recent form in the book to win this and her good apprentice jockey has struck up a good relationship with her. 16/1+ is too big.

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Afternoon bets:

One for this afternoon, possible evening bets will follow before 4.00pm.

1.30 Musselburgh Masterleaderman 5pts win @ 5/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

The point to point form of this son of Beneficial is working out really well, in particular the close second to King Helissio, who had no problem picking up a maiden hurdle at Ludlow and looks a decent prospect. Midieval Chapel followed up with a couple of point wins, and the form looks solid in that particular sphere. Michael Smith paid £16,000 for Masterleaderman last November, and the horse has been given plenty of time to develop in the interim. Smith is one of the star trainers of the season so far in my view, his handling of Imperial Vic, Kilgefin Star and bumper winner Mont Royale has been excellent. A feature of his horses seems to be that they all stay, and they are tuned up fully on their return to the race track - he doesn't send them to the track half fit. It follows that first time out is the time to catch them, and I think the selection is attractively priced at 5/1 in what looks only a fair maiden hurdle today. Tom Scudamore takes the ride and looks a very positive booking, the 7mm of overnight rain at the track will have done his chances no harm at all.

Profit & loss: day: -9.00 / month: -72.80 / year: +386.70

Thursday 7th November 2013

One early selection for today. An afternoon update will follow before 1.00pm.

12.20 Lingfield Castle Combe 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 17/2 (Bet Victor, guaranteed, 8/1 Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 15/2 Betfair Sportsbook, independents, guaranteed) - E/W 3rd

Castle Combe represents the Marcus Tregoning stable, who have been resurgent just lately and had an impressive winner at Kempton last night. This is his fourth run, but the turf to polytrack angle is interesting here because his sire Dylan Thomas is producing progeny who are more successful on artificial surfaces (16% strike rate, 12% on turf). It is reasonable to suggest this strong travelling colt should find improvement for the change of surface, and he was arguably unlucky last time out at Brighton. There was a strong crosswind that day, and he was buffeted around the track and impeded by the other runners on a couple of occasions. Brighton is difficult enough for a juvenile without having to deal with that, and his rider wasted no time in accepting things. A first time visor is applied here, Tregoning used the same headgear on Syrenka when she won last week. I don't think stall 10 is necessarily a disadvantage over this trip in a maiden contest, and Dwyer has been riding this track well of late. 7/1+ is too big.

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Castle Combe had to use a bit too much petrol to get the lead earlier, he pulled clear with the first two and was good enough to take place money.

One additional afternoon selection, possible evening bets will follow before 4.00pm.

3.20 Lingfield Al Raqeeb 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 20/1 (Totesport, Betfred, Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed) - E/W 3rd

Al Raqeeb was formerly with Marco Botti, but he has joined Gary Harrison, who is a decent handler and is getting plenty of winners including at this track. The selection looks very well handicapped on this surface off a mark of OR74, and the way he streaked clear over seven furlongs here on his debut marked him down as a potential all weather specialist. His next two runs on the surface were good enough to confirm that impression, but you have to think he has been a little difficult to train having made his debut as a three year old, and been offloaded by Botti's yard. His debut for his new stable on turf was full of promise, however, and his last two runs can surely be struck off due to the soft ground. The return to this surface in 0-75 company gives him every chance of running a huge race, and he looks very much overpriced at the current odds.

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Al Raqeeba probably should have won at Lingfield earlier, but he just went off a shade too fast and I didn't expect him to be ridden like that. He looks a cert to pick up races off his current mark this winter.

One for this evening's Wolverhampton card.

4.50 Wolverhampton Bazooka 5pts win @ 4/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Represents a stable who took a Nursery on the Lingfield card earlier. Bazooka looks to have been fairly well hidden in maidens, he ran a really eye catching race in a Kempton five furlong contest on his penultimate run, travelling like a natural on the surface and staying on really well under notably tender handling from his rider. He was given a similar ride at Bath last time out, and as a result starts off in nurserys off a lowly mark, with a good claimer taking 3lb off his back. He is bred to be a two year old being by Camacho, and I think he is a better horse than Stony Quine, who is favourite here. He kept good company in those maiden runs and, despite being a cheap enough purchase, I think he could be an OR75+ horse in time. I don't see any others in this line up of the same ilk, and a chance is taken on him being able to put it all together this evening at odds which look around a point too big.

Profit & loss: day: -3.80 / month: -63.80 / year: +395.70

Wednesday 6th November 2013

A very strong card at Kempton and we have three interests.

4.30 Kempton Talmada 4pts win @ 5/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

I can't have Maria Bella at the prices here and she has to be taken on with Talmada from the Varian yard. The selection is unraced, but I have alluded already this season to the value to be had in backing unraced horses in the right circumstances and I feel this is a decent price in the circumstances. She is extremely well bred, by Cape Cross and related to a couple of very good all weather winners (carries the U.S.A. suffix). Her stable are pretty much carrying all before them in the past weeks, including in all weather maidens, and if anything I expect her price to shorten up before the off. Unless one of the other unraced horses is very good (most of them looks three year olds on pedigree analysis) then I expect Talmada to go close to winning on debut.

6.30 Kempton Dumbfounded 4pts win @ 8/1 (Boylesports, SeanieMac.com, Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 15/2 generally guaranteed)

Dumbfounded is by Vettori, a sire who gets strong stayers on this surface, and I was interested to see the aggressive ride given to him by Richard Hughes at Bath last time out. Connections clearly feel he is a stayer, because he was ridden as if stamina was absolutely no issue over the thirteen furlong trip and he rallied well against two progressive horses once headed. That looked a better race than the division Cabuchon ran in and I can only put the price difference down to Adam Kirby riding the Evans horse here. Lady Herries knows what it takes to train good stayers on this surface, and if the selection is ridden prominently again, I expect him to be close at the finish. He is overpriced at 8/1.

7.30 Kempton Regal Dan 4pts win @ 5/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Regal Dan is a strong travelling horse who is related to numerous all weather winners and it is a wonder his connections have not tried him on this surface yet. His sire's progeny are markedly better on the surface (15% strike rate) and looking at his dam's side he is related to some good polytrack winners. He looks very well handicapped to me and is much better than his finishing position suggests from Newmarket last time out - he was hampered a couple of times and had no luck in the run. The booking of Tom Queally is a positive and he can put it up to the short priced favourite here.

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Afternoon bets:

One selection for this afternoon. Evening bets will follow before 4.00pm.

3.05 Nottingham Commanche 1pt each-way AND 2pt win @ 11/1 (Betfred, Bet Victor, Ladbrokes, guaranteed, 10/1 generally guaranteed)

Commanche has been a model of consistency since being claimed by Chris Dwyer in June. He has arguably improved for his new handler, but I don't think he has reached the ceiling of his abilities yet and he may have more improvement in him on soft ground. He had done most of his winning on good ground before his Windsor victory in a claimer last time out, but his one run on a straight track on good to soft was really interesting. It came at Doncaster, where he pulled clear of the field with Sir Pedro. He was made favourite for a very good sprint at Leicester next time but things didn't pan out on better ground. His win at Windsor showed he handles soft ground well and I've never seen him look better - he was most impressive physically and seems to be thriving. The return to a straight five furlongs on soft is taken to suit him, and I think there is more to come off a handicap mark of OR81. He seems to be well drawn and has the assistance of a top claimer who takes 3lb off his back.

Profit & loss: day: -16.00 / month: -60.00 / year: +399.50

Tuesday 5th November 2013

An excellent card at Southwell this afternoon and with the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter, our winter really kicks off here. We have three interests, all at Southwell.

1pt each-way double on Khajaaly / Modify, 11/2 / 3/1 generally guaranteed

1.40 Southwell Khajaaly 4pts win @ 6/1 / 11/2 (Generally guaranteed)

Khajaaly is the latest in a long line of horses who have improved for the switch to Michael Appleby. He remains something of a monkey, but his last run was a career best on ratings and it is interesting to note he is able to race off 1lb lower this afternoon. He has not raced at Southwell before, but his sire and dam both have the U.S.A. suffix which is so important for horses at this track (although he himself does not) and he has always been a strong travelling type who struck me as worth a chance at this venue. He will be fitter now than at any stage in his life, thanks to his trainer, and he looks the best handicapped horse here if he does take to the surface. 6/1 is fair and we'll put him in an each-way double with Modify.

2.10 Southwell Wolfwood 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 33/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Wolfswood is not by a well known sire but his damsire has produced numerous quality fibresand performers, including the likes of Cardinal Venture. He has an action which suggests he should go well on the surface and his trainer has brought him here along with another horse with the same damsire, who is favourite for the closer on the card. Wolfwood has shown a bit more to date than a casual reading of the formbook suggests, and at a massive price off a mark of OR50 I make him worth a small interest.

2.40 Southwell Modify 4pts win @ 3/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Modify is a short enough price but this is a weak race and I don't think the favourite is up to much. She is by New Approach out of a mare who produced Dubai Hills, possibly the best miler ever to run on this surface on a regular basis. She has a huge stride and ran better than her tailed off finishing position suggests in the fillies' trophy last time out. She had no problem leading the field before stamina became an issue. Her trainer does really well here and, even at a shortish price, she looks too big here and I make her the one to beat.

Profit & loss: day: -13.00 / month: -44.00 / year: +415.50

Monday 4th November 2013

Just the one interest for Monday.

3.55 Wolverhampton Ruby's Day 1pt each-way @ 20/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP

Apart from the favourite, who looks short enough for what she has achieved thus far, nothing amongst the shorter prices has an appealing profile or looks particularly well treated here. There is definitely scope for a surprise result and I think Ruby's Day is overpriced at the current odds. The selection is having her third start for David Brown this afternoon. She was noted staying on well at Ripon under an apprentice jockey on her stable debut, before heavy ground got the better of her last time out. She looks well handicapped on her best form today and the polytrack angle is an interesting one. Her sire Vital Equine has produced a couple of good polytrack performers from limited opportunities, Kenny Powers and Monumental Man. The filly appears to have an action that will be suited to this surface and she travels well which will help here. This looks overloaded with pace and if she can sit in behind, she should be able to use her stride to pick up the leaders late on. The booking of Silverstre De Sousa really caught my attention and at the prices she looks worth backing to modest stakes.

Profit & loss: day: -3.00 / month: -31.00 / year: +428.50