Nice to get the big race winner yesterday, which put us ahead on the day. A second winner today would ensure a profitable meeting.
1:00 Mallard Pawnbrokers And Family Jewellers Conditional Jockeys´ Handicap Hurdle Cl3 2m5f
Selection: Timesishard 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 50/1 (Bet Victor, guaranteed, 40/1 generally guaranteed)
Timesishard is a second season novice hurdler who is arguably unexposed at this trip, and has some decent form from last season including a third at Cheptsow in a race I expect to work out well. He represents a trainer who sent out a winning hurdler yesterday on seasonal debut, and I just think the selection is way overpriced at the odds here. This doesn't look the strongest of contests and Lieutenant Miller, who does nothing once he hits the front and isn't a stable star of Hendersons, is as short as 7/2. I can pick holes in the form of many of these; Sausalito Sunrise is a notable exception but his fitness must be taken on trust and at the prices, a small interest on a horse who I think is twice the price he should be might pay handsome dividends.
1:35 Sky Bet Supreme Trial Novices´ Hurdle (Registered As The Sharp Novices´ Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m110y
Not really a betting contest for me, but if I was asked to name the winner, The Liquidator would be top of my list. - WON
2:10 Racing Post Arkle Trophy Trial Novices´ Chase (Registered As The November Novices´ Chase) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m
Anther race I wouldn't like to get involved in heavily. Dodging Bullets is a tentative nomination to land the spoils, but I wouldn't be surprised to see an upset. - WON
2:40 Shloer Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 2m
Selection: Kid Cassidy 4pts win @ 5/1 (Bet 365, Totesport, Betfred, Bet Victor, William Hill, guaranteed) - WON
Kid Cassidy ran really well behind Alderwood in the closing two mile handicap at the festival over course and distance here in March, and that form is taken to be enough to see him defeat Sire De Grugy here, in receipt of 10lbs. I think this will be a close run thing, but the favourite is Even money and Kid Cassidy five times the price. A.P. McCoy is booked and despite concerns in the racing press about the form of the Henderson stable, I am loathe to write his horses off based on a small sample size of runners, many of whom have been overbet anyway.
3:15 StanJames.com Greatwood Hurdle (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 2m110y
Selections:
Sametegal 3pts win @ 11/1 (Bet 365, Bet Victor, Stan James, Betpack.com, Coral, guaranteed)
Kashmir Peak 3pts win @ 11/1 (Bet 365, Stan James, Betpack.com, Ladbrokes, Coral, guaranteed)
This doesn't look the strongest renewal of this contest, it lacks a potential superstar at the head of the market and the race may well go the way of a well handicapped, decent horse as opposed to something at the top of the weights as has been the case in recent years on more than on occasion. Sametegal carries 11-4 here; I was impressed with the manner of his victory on seasonal debut last time out. He was in front long enough and pulled out more (going away at the line) when asked. He was ridden as if he would come on for the run, and Paul Nicholls may have had this race in mind all along. Daryl Jacob rides this hurdles track really well and 11/1 is too big.
Kashmir Peak represents John Quinn, one of the best trainers of hurdlers around. He is lower in the weights and is a real potential lurker. He comes here off the back of a career best flat effort at Doncaster where he was unlucky to be pipped by Thomas Hobson (raced away from that rival), and the stable could not be in better form this autumn, Zaplamation landing a decent handicap hurdle at Wetherby for them yesterday. Dougie Costello is no stranger to Cheltenham (won the Triumph on Coutrywide Flame for Quinn) and anything in double figures looks too big.
3:50 Fairlawne - Festival Jockey Club Fine Dining Bumper (Standard Open NH Flat Race) (Listed Race) Cl1 2m110y
No bet here, but I've been quite impressed with Champagne At Tara thus far and he makes a certain amount of appeal at around 4/1.
Profit & loss: day: +11.00 / month: -48.80 / year: +416.70
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