Tuesday, November 19, 2013

Cheltenham Open Meeting Day One

For those who have recently joined us, our service traditionally covers the big flat and jumps meetings with an analysis of each race on the card, and Cheltenham's Open Meeting is the first such fixture this National Hunt season. Account bets only should be followed, non account bets are intended as a guide and for those attending the meeting who want to get involved in each race.

Today's card looks excellent and should throw up multiple pointers for the season ahead.

1:05 Opus Energy Amateur Riders´ Handicap Chase Cl3 3m110y

Selection: Major Malarkey 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 25/1 (Totesport, Betfred, Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed)

I can't be having the favourite at 6/4 here given the fact that his form has all come on flat right handed tracks. He might be a cut above these, but at the prices I'm quite keen on Major Malarkey from a handicapping point of view. His trainer targets this race and it is highly encouraging that the selection's form figures on seasonal debut read 2512 - he clearly goes well fresh and he was able to post a figure of RPR137 this time last year. He has been largely overfaced in good company but this is a real drop in class for him and looks his most winnable opportunity in a while. His handicap mark has dropped to OR126 which gives him a real chance, and this 7lb claimer looks worth his allowance (has been riding a couple of winners and looks tidy). There are caveats, but they are factored into the price and in an ordinary race apart from the market leader, he looks worth backing.

1:35 Paddy Power Handicap Chase Cl2 2m CH4

Selection: Elenika 3pts win @ 10/1 (Bet 365, Boylesports, SeanieMac.com, Bet Victor, guaranteed, 9/1 generally guaranteed)

Interesting Venetia Williams paid £28,000 for this french bred from Paul Nicholls in the spring. He was probably overfaced last season but some of his form looks very solid and I wouldn't be surprised to see him improve for the summer on his back. Aiden Coleman seems to prefer him to Renard but it is hard to know. Elenika's form behind Fairy Rath at Ascot in April looks a cut above what is required here and this doesn't looks a particularly strong division - two mile handicappers tend to win in turn and this contest looks ripe for something well handicapped to improve. A mark of OR129 underestimates what Elenika achieved last season and he may well prove a shrewd buy.

2:05 Steel Plate And Sections Novices´ Chase Cl2 2m4f110y

Selection: The Romford Pele 3pts win @ 7/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Oscar Whisky has to be taken on as a hurdler who has fallen once and has "not fluent" in his form figures on a few occasions. He is also an eight year old and I tend to oppose Novice Chasers who have been running for more than two years under the other code. The Romford Pele was a fast finishing second in a very good race at Chepstow on his chase debut, and he looked a much better horse than he was over hurdles. He jumped soundly and quickly in the main, and I got the impression a stiff finish would really see him come into his own. I'm not sure the second favourite here will handle the ground, and I like the selection even though he has plenty to find with the Henderson horse at the weights. He achieved a stone better than anything he did over hurdles at Chepstow and may just be a natural chaser.

2:40 David Johnson Memorial Intermediate Handicap Hurdle Cl3 2m5f 

Non account bet: Top Gamble to win @ 4/1 (Betfred, guaranteed, 7/2 generally guaranteed)

No bet in this race, but Top Gamble will have been laid out for this given the trainer's connection with David Johnson, and he might just be well handicapped too. Short at the prices but the likely winner in my view.

3:15 Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase Cl2 3m7f

Selection: Diamond Harry 3pts win @ 17/2 (Bet Victor, guaranteed, 8/1 generally guaranteed)

3:50 Countryside Raceday Novices´ Handicap Hurdle Cl3 2m110y

Nick Williams has done well with Maljimar down the years in these races, and it is interesting that horse went to France the other day, winning a similar event handily. Diamond Harry has taken to cross country racing quite well and he has to be of interest from a handicapping perspective here. He is not the horse of old, but he does stay well and the slower pace of these races will play into his hands in my view. James Reveley is a very good pilot, he knows the horse well having ridden him in Paris in June and in work since, and I think at the prices he is well worth taking a chance on. 8/1+ is too big.

Non Account bet: Quick Jack to win @ 9/4 (Generally guaranteed) - WON

No bet here but I do think Quick Jack could be an absolute handicap blot. Ruby Walsh takes the ride and I don't particularly want to take him on. If you're having a good day at the races, a small win interest might give you a return.


Profit & loss: day: -12.00 / month: -69.80 / year: +395.70

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