7.00 Wolverhampton Poetic Belle 2pts each-way @ 20/1 (Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 16/1 generally guaranteed)
A feature of this race is that many of the market principals are not guaranteed to run their race, and the race is priced up based on reputation and jockey bookings. Dustland Fairytale hated the kickback here last time out, and may have developed a dislike for the place (the kickback is no better now). Zaroud is temperamental and although he has been heavily backed on a couple of occasions, he has shown nothing on the track and is more likely to bomb out than win by five lengths. Shamiana is a keen filly who represents connections who might get a win out of her but she does not look anything special. Reggie Bond has been off since July, has shown little, represents an out of form stable yet is a general 6/1 shot.
Poetic Belle looks a very decent straight each-way bet to me. She hasn't won a race yet, but seems to be slowly improving under the care of Shaun Harris, and her last two runs at this track have more or less been lifetime bests (the 57 RPR she achieved last time would probably be enough to win this unless one of the lurkers improves drastically). She chased a strong pace set by a sprinter, Speightstown's Kid, last time she raced here, and faded into second after her early exertions told. Her 66/1 third over six furlongs here came in a better race in September. She is forgiven a below par run at Kempton last time as she was turned out fairly quickly, and she comes here as a filly who seems to be taking her racing well and has a liking for this track. She has a more solid profile than most and is a bigger price than she should be because she does not have a sexy profile. If two or three of the lurkers do improve dramatically, we're out of luck and she won't be good enough, but she has the recent form in the book to win this and her good apprentice jockey has struck up a good relationship with her. 16/1+ is too big.
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Afternoon bets:
One for this afternoon, possible evening bets will follow before 4.00pm.
1.30 Musselburgh Masterleaderman 5pts win @ 5/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
The point to point form of this son of Beneficial is working out really well, in particular the close second to King Helissio, who had no problem picking up a maiden hurdle at Ludlow and looks a decent prospect. Midieval Chapel followed up with a couple of point wins, and the form looks solid in that particular sphere. Michael Smith paid £16,000 for Masterleaderman last November, and the horse has been given plenty of time to develop in the interim. Smith is one of the star trainers of the season so far in my view, his handling of Imperial Vic, Kilgefin Star and bumper winner Mont Royale has been excellent. A feature of his horses seems to be that they all stay, and they are tuned up fully on their return to the race track - he doesn't send them to the track half fit. It follows that first time out is the time to catch them, and I think the selection is attractively priced at 5/1 in what looks only a fair maiden hurdle today. Tom Scudamore takes the ride and looks a very positive booking, the 7mm of overnight rain at the track will have done his chances no harm at all.
Profit & loss: day: -9.00 / month: -72.80 / year: +386.70
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