1.00 Ascot Fiddler's Bid 4pts win @ 7/1 (Generally guaranteed)
Fiddler's Bid represents a stable in fine form, and it is interesting his trainer sends him here on his chase debut. He clearly feels there is juice in his hurdles handicap mark of OR124, and given his string's 15% strike rate in handicap chases (a level stakes loss of only -£1.50 backed blind) you would have to think this trainer's placement deserves plenty of credit. His chasers also have a better strike rate than his hurdlers (15% versus 13%) and some of the selection's hurdles form gives him a great chance here. A bumper win here, close third to Ballytober here in a maiden hurdle, and a second to the very decent (potentially high class chaser in my opinion) Uxizandre were the highlights. Chasing was always likely to be his game, and there doesn't seem to be any superstars lurking in here. 7/1 looks a nice price in my view and I think he is likely to be ready first time up.
1.30 Ascot
Florafern 4pts win @ 7/1 (Generally guaranteed)
Scholastica 4pts win @ 7/1 (Boylesports, SeanieMac.com, Bet Victor, Ladbrokes, Coral, guaranteed) - WON
In hindsight Florafern had a hell of a task conceding 23lb to Tweedledrum in this race last year. She was only beaten a length and that rival went on to win twice more and ended the season rated 21lb higher. She goes well fresh and with her trainer's string in good form, she is a no brainer here from just 2lb higher. I make this race between two mares, and I don't mind shelling out a similarly decent stake on Tom Symond's Scholastica. Symonds trained Tweedledrum and obviously targets these mares hurdles (he had Midnight Belle, who landed a nice touch for us in late January, entered here at the five day stage; she has been rerouted to the Listed hurdle at Kempton on Monday). She goes well fresh too on last year's evidence - indeed she might be the type who doesn't stand too much racing as she did lose her form towards the spring of this year. She looks well handicapped on some of that novice form, and as a six year old by Old Vic, there is likely further improvement to come during this winter's campaign.
3.15 Ascot Saved By John 4pts win @ 11/2 (Generally guaranteed)
Ascot on the flat and over jumps generally suits strong travellers, and Tim Vaughan's Saved By John ticks the boxes in that category. He ran a fine race at Aintree on his seasonal reappearance, and had the field well and truly cooked turning for home until he was caught by a race fit, progressive rival, the pair well clear. He drops back in trip by three furlongs this afternoon, but he is such a good mover that I think it may be a positive. If his bold jumping doesn't cause him problems, he should be finishing strongly here. I think Drumshambo was tired at the end of win here last time out, and I'm not surprised he has drifted out to 4/1. Richard Johnson rides this track well (13% strike rate) and I think 11/2 is a decent price for a horse who looks to me as though he is on a very fair handicap mark and open to progression.
Profit & loss: day: +16.00 / month: -24.55 / year: +440.95
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