We have four interests this afternoon; we're playing heavily but that's just a reflection on the number of decent betting opportunities. Some days there are none, most days there are one, and on days like today there are multiple interests worth having.
2.40 Doncaster Kashmir Peak 1pt each-way AND 3pts win @ 11/1 (Stan James, Betpack.com, Coral, Bet Bright, 888 Sport, Independents) - E/W 2nd
Kashmir Peak won on his only visit to Doncaster which was over hurdles, and his sire Tiger Hill's progeny have a decent 12% strike rate at the track - the drainage and soil type are quite unique so it's a course where I pay attention to course form and sire stats. The selection was ridden by a good apprentice last time out, Jason Hart, but he got no luck in running at all and everything that could have went wrong did. Hart wisely had the horse on the outside and prominent off what was a steady pace, but it didn't suit the horse and he expended a lot of energy pulling for his head. I don't think the good ground necessarily suited the selection either as he didn't really let himself down, and he was also hampered late on, costing him a lot of momentum even though his chance had probably gone (he rallied after that and finished well). The horse was well backed on his two previous starts by shrewd connections, and he is of definite interest in what I would say is a slightly lesser contest today. This galloping track should suit him, and I would hope OisÃn Murphy will drop him right out to conserve his energy and let others do the donkey work. If he settles better, I think he'll be thereabouts at the finish, and with this apprentice absolute daylight robbery for his 5lb claim and the handicap mark already looking fair, he looks too big at double figure odds.
3.15 Doncaster Secret Witness 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 40/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
Nothing leaps off the page in this sprint handicap and, as an end of season race with no apparent draw bias, it might be the type of contest to throw up a surprise result. Secret Witness has a habit of excelling himself when turned out quickly, the most recent example being at this track in September when he ran miserably over seven furlongs before finishing a close second in the Portland the following day. He didn't run too badly yesterday having been very keen early doors, but he dropped himself out after than and as a seven year old veteran of 81 races he probably just didn't like the idea of being told what to do and spat the dummy. He will probably be allowed to go as fast as he likes over the minimum trip today, and he is ideally drawn in stall 11 to get some cover. While he hasn't won on soft ground, he has plenty of decent form on it and he does like Doncaster. 40/1 is too big and we'll have a small each-way and win interest.
3.50 Doncaster Somewhat 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 17/2 / 8/1 (Generally, get guaranteed and use a bookmaker paying 1/4 odds 3 places)
Nothing sticks out as a bona fide superstar here, and I'm going to have a decent each-way and win bet on Mark Johnston's Somewhat, who is tough as nails, experienced, and looks for all the world as if he will appreciate soft ground. I've been waiting for him to run on this surface since watching him on his debut, he displays loads of knee action and has a super game attitude typical of his trainer's best horses. He might well get an uncontested lead today, and if that is the case, the visual evidence of his runs on better ground earlier this season suggest he might be very difficult to pass. He is 6lb clear on Topspeed figures, and unless a number of these improve markedly for the conditions, I think he'll go close and at least be in the first three.
4.05 Newbury Dutch Romance 5pts win @ 5/1 (Ladbrokes, guaranteed, 9/2 generally guaranteed)
Barry Hills won this race twice with fillies who ended up rated 112 and 109, he had the runner up twice and tended to enter good fillies in the race. It is interesting his son Charlie has his first runner in the race this afternoon, the Salisbury maiden winner Dutch Rose. She handled heavy ground very well at Salisbury and if you want to see how to give a two year old a winning ride and an education, check out Ryan Moore's ride on her that day. He barely resorted to the whip, but taught her loads without asking her too much and the filly responded extremely generously to win without turning a hair despite not displaying the kind of turn of foot Pretty Flemingo did at Goodwood. I think Dutch Romance might be a decent horse. Jamie Spencer is booked and he won the race on a 33/1 shot last year. The galloping seven furlongs and heavy ground will suit her fine, and she can win this on the way to better things. 9/2+ looks fair.
Profit & loss: day: -12.75 / month: +29.50 / year: +492.50
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