Declaration Of War 3pts win @ 13/2 (Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 6/1 generally guaranteed)
Paynter 2pts win @ 16/1 (Bet 365, Stan James, Betpack.com, Coral, Independents, guaranteed)
An intruiging renewal of this great race.
The selection of Declaration Of War here is based on his pedigree. He is by War Front out of a Rahy mare, and carries the U.S.A. suffix that is almost a prerequisite for a horse to show its best form on a dirt surface. He has many obstacles to overcome to win this, but I think he represents Aidan O'Brien's best chance of doing so since Giant's Causeway finished second behind Tiznow. He travels very strongly just off the speed, and if he can do the same at Santa Anita his chance is there for all to see. His York win last time out was a lifetime best, and he appears to have been aimed at this contest since. This might just set up for a closer and he should stay strongly given his European style training which is based more around stamina.
Paynter is the other horse I want to be on. He is drawn well in stall two and although he was well beaten by Mucho Macho Man last time out, that was over a furlong shorter and I'm keen to oppose any horse who fails to win this race and turns up for a second bite at the cherry, especially at short odds (Game On Dude is similarly opposed). Paynter was forced wide into the straight after hitting a flat spot last time and if he can hold his position better from stall 2 over this extra furlong, he has the staying power to burn off the speed horses late. It has to be of interest that Bob Baffert enters him given his apparent inferiority to Mucho Macho Man, and I would suggest this has been his target for some time, and that he wasn't 100% last time. The reports of his work have been very strong, with experienced gallops watchers suggesting he looks a different horse for having the sun on his back the last few months, and he might just recapture his 2012 form after having recovered from life threatening injury and illness. Paynter's odds are too big and the story behind the horse should not overshadow what looks a very obvious chance if he comes on for that last run.
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Afternoon bets:
Three races of interest this afternoon.
Breeders' Cup selections will follow before 6.00pm. Long term clients will know that we're on a hat trick in the Breeders' Cup Classic, having tipped Drosselmeyer (25/1) two years ago and Fort Larned (9/1) last year. Last night's action was excellent and we'd hope to continue our affinity with the meeting successfully this evening.
1.50 Wetherby Une Artiste 3pts each-way @ 7/2 (Generally, get guaranteed and use a bookmaker offering 1/4 odds)
Your bookmaker won't like you for placing this bet, but we're not in the business of making friends with bookmakers (lovely bunch though they are!). Nicky Henderson has his team in very good form and I think his horses are being slightly underestimated in the markets because the season has just started. He had a winner on this card yesterday and, given that she handles soft ground so well, Une Artiste is taken to return to winning ways under Tony McCoy this afternoon. The selection was probably the second best mare running over hurdles last year in my view, behind Quevega, and I just think she had gone for the season when she disappointed at Cheltenham. Quite simply I think she is the best horse in the race here and with 1/4 odds paid and 7/2 looking a point too big, she rates a confident each-way selection.
2.20 Newmarket
Myboyalfie 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 12/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
Justonefortheroad 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 14/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
Newmarket is really soft and tacky and is taking some getting today. I think the older horses might come out on top. Jodie's Jem looks a big price from the three year olds, but staying will be the name of the game here and Myboyalfie comes here fresher than most, handles the ground very well, and has an interesting high draw which he might be able to use to bag the stands' rail and make all. Double figures are too big.
Richard Fahey does well with his northern raiders here when conditions are testing, and his Justonefortheroad is of interest at the prices too. He will definitely handle the ground, and the faster they go up front, the better he'll be staying on at the finish. He is another who has been brought along with an autumn campaign in mind and he is relatively fresh for the time of year. He showed a bit more at York last time and I think the blinkers being discarded might be a positive.
3.20 Ascot Triolo D'Alene 3pts win @ 7/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
Triolo D'Alene is another for the Henderson camp. He looked a different horse last year following a wind operation, and won his last two starts. He has winning form at Ascot, and is likely to be ready to go fresh. It is obviously interesting Barry Geraghty rides him over Roberta Goldback, last year's winner, and I think 7/1 is very fair. His jumping has improved since his Novice days and a handicap mark of OR147 would seem fair given that his trainer has hinted that he doesn't know how good he is.
Profit & loss: day: -20.00 / month: -28.00 / year: +431.50
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