7.20 Kempton Djinni 4pts win @ 7/2 (Generally, get guaranteed)
I was most impressed by the manner of Djinni's Windsor win on her second start over the summer, and am prepared to forgive her next run at Goodwood on the basis that she has been off since - clearly something was amiss that day. Richard Hughes talked about her as a potential black type filly and I think she is too big in relation to the favourite here. Stomp hasn't really done it on the track, and although she might be a nursery set up, I can't have her at such a short price given she has never fought out a finish. Djinni has been there and done it, her sire's progeny have a 17% strike rate here, and I think she is cracking value at the prices.
7.50 Kempton First Class 4pts win @ 7/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
David Probert is riding out of his skin, and he will need to be aggressive enough to get a decent position on First Class from stall 14 this evening. The selection is a triple course winner who still looks progressive on the surface in my view, but it may be that seven furlongs are required for him to show his best form and I am happy to overlook his run over six here last time out, where he was beaten into third. He was in front soon enough when he won on his penultimate run and he looks to me as the type who might just do enough; he isn't particularly flashy either and I can't see any reason not to send him prominent or indeed into the lead in the early stages here. If a good racing position is secured, I don't think he is a 7/1 shot and I expect him to be involved in the finish given decent luck in running.
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Afternoon bets:
One for this afternoon and possible evening bets for Kempton released before 4.00pm.
2.50 Southwell Elusive Warrior 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 5/1 (Paddy Power, guaranteed, 9/2 generally guaranteed)
Looks a different horse to the mulish, disinterested version of last season and although he is getting on in years, the selection is well handicapped on his old form and seems to have lost none of his enthusiasm. He has struck up a good relationship with claimer Aaron Jones, who rides him well, and he is an out and out course and distance expert. He is also very well drawn in the middle, and I'd be surprised if he didn't go close to winning this. I like the idea of taking a chunk of my stake back if he runs a place and that's how we'll play it.
Profit & loss: day: -14.00 / month: -57.80 / year: +407.70
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