9.10 Wolverhampton Madame Elizabeth 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 11/1 (Bet 365, Bet Victor, Ladbrokes, guaranteed, 10/1 generally guaranteed)
Madame Elizabeth looks the bet of the night by some way. This is a fair contest, but nothing in the line up looks very progressive apart from Soul Intent, whose trainer has stated had a problem after his last run and would stay a mile and a half later in this year. This could well be a pipe opener after his break and I'm happy to oppose. Muthafar represents powerful connections but doesn't look a stable star, and Lyric Piece looks relatively exposed. That pair trade at 7/2, and it is odd that the selection is available at double figures. She has been slowly progressive this year and got off the mark at Bath under today's pilot, posting a career best in the process. A repeat of that gives her every chance here. She is readily excused her Windsor run on account of the soft ground. What makes this an excellent bet is the fact that she has a real polytrack action, her dam being a nine time all weather winner, and a half sister having also won on the surface. Her only polytrack start thus far resulted in a close second in a decent contest at Kempton (pulled clear with a decent OR78 type, and a later Listed winner who was rated OR104 by the end of the year). If things go her way tonight, she looks very well handicapper off OR75 with a claim of a jockey who is striking up a decent partnership with her. Double figure prices are far too big and we'll have a decent sized bet.
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Afternoon bet:
One bet for Thursday afternoon, an evening bet may follow, released before 5.30pm.
2.10 Ludlow The Absent Mare 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 25/1 (William Hill, guaranteed, 20/1 generally guaranteed)
A moderate but interesting handicap chase over two miles. This isn't a great quality contest, and you'd be pushed to be bothered backing anything at a short price. Julie Prince looks best of those at shortish odds, but what is noticeable about this race is that there seems to be guaranteed pace on the cards. Julie Prince likes to race prominently and indeed lead. Tinelyra was ridden aggressively on his last start and, dropped back in trip, may be ridden in the same fashion again. Shalamiyr raced prominently last time out, Think It's All Over led. A chance is taken at huge odds on The Absent Mare, an established hold up performer, in the hope of a strong early pace setting this up for her. She has been awarded what looks a very fair chase mark based on her first run over fences (jumped well until a tired fall), and it compares favourably with some of the ratings she posted over hurdles. That interests me, because she never respected hurdles and I would suggest that the limited evidence of her chase debut suggests she may do better over fences. She tends to have one good late run in her, and the step back from two and a half miles is a positive in my view. She ran well to a point over 2m5f here on seasonal debut last season in a better hurdles race before her stamina and careless jumping became an issue. If her fencing holds up as well as it did for most of the Market Rasen race, she can get into this late on and make her presence felt. Her trainer had a Cheltenham winner last week, she likes going right handed, and the booking of a 5lb claimer who has ridden her before, and who has a a 5/31 16% strike rate at Ludlow in the last five seasons is a bonus.
Profit & loss: day: -10.00 / month: +22.27 / year: +485.27
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