6.30 Kempton Maverik 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 16/1 (Totesport, Betfred, William Hill, Betfair Sportsbook, independents, guaranteed)
A really good contest. These horses are closely matched and my gut instinct having read the form is that there are no superstars in here. I don't fancy Mighty Ambition after his layoff (Charlie Appleby 0-12 with horses reappearing after 100 days off, small sample size but doesn't encourage me), I'm not sure Chookie Royale will be as effective coming from off the pace over this trip and the same goes for Uppercut. Both have very good apprentices booked but I think this race will be won by the ride given to the winner.
Which brings us neatly to Jim Crowley. Crowley rode a treble here last week and for my mind is in the top three jockeys around here along with Ryan Moore and Richard Hughes. He boasts a brilliant 152/996 15% strike rate at the track over the last five seasons returning a profit of +£16.48 to the pound stake which is something else when you consider the ammunition he gets compared to Hughes and Moore. He knows every nuance of the track and he is worth his weight in gold if he is riding your horse. There seems to be no more than an even pace assured in this race, and with the selection being one of the pace angles and drawn well to attack in stall 4, I think Crowley has to be thinking of taking a prominent early sit (or leading) and stacking his rivals up here. Many of these will be dependent on a good pace, and Crowley might be able to win this by getting a better early position than the hold up types and helping to set a slower pace than they require. I don't fear any of the other potential pace horses in terms of setting really fast fractions - Verse Of Love and Captain Cat come to mind - and it's interesting most of the forward going types are drawn low. Maverik is a good horse on this surface, he seems to be improving based on his career best over course and distance on his penultimate run, and he looks well handicapped off OR87 based on that. He has had a nice break since disappointing last time out, and has gone well fresh in the past. The form of his third to Ehtedaam and Seek Again is working out very well, and I fancy him to outrun odds of 16/1 this evening.
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Afternoon bets:
A couple of cracking all weather cards today and I have to say fair play to the powers that be for sorting this new initiative for all weather racing - decent field sizes and some very good horses makes for better betting opportunities and increased turnover for the industry.
We may have evening bets, to follow before 4.00pm.
Naabegha 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 16/1 (Bet Victor, guaranteed, 14/1 generally guaranteed)
Capo Rosso 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 14/1 (Bet 365, Bet Victor, Coral, guaranteed, 12/1 generally guaranteed)
For the life of me I'll never understand prices like the Evens available generally on Horsted Keynes here. He is far too short for my liking, ridiculously short, and I wonder if I'm missing something. He might bolt up but I want to take him on and his price makes the market for everything else. I also didn't like the way he pulled up last time out, Varian may have left a bit to work on but he looked tired and as a horse who has only raced three times are we sure we can expect improvement? No.
Naabegha has only one all weather start to his name, behind the awesome (on polytrack) My Freedom who is certainly up to Group class and will probably make hay in Meydan this winter. The selection travelled really well into the contest My Freedom won, and finished best of the rest. He has been kept to turf since, but has failed to really shine and it is about time he was given another chance on this surface. He is a half brother to none other than Markab, who was a serious tool around here (C+D RPR of 110) and given how well the Naabegha travelled last time he was here it is no wonder connections have waited so long. Strike off most of his recent runs, the likes of heavy ground are no use to him, I expect him to improve markedly for the return to polytrack and he is far too big in the betting.
Capo Rosso represents Tom Dascombe, who has a good record here, and whose string are returning to form. The selection is 8lb better off for a 3 1/2 length defeat by the favourite here, but he was caught in the kickback all the way around and brought to challenge on the inside, which is not favourable at Wolverhampton when the track is riding slow. A first time visor is applied today. It was noticeable Capo Rosso was much harder to pull up than Horsted Keynes, suggesting the kickback was responsible for him holding back quite a bit. He is drawn wide today and I expect Martin Dwyer, who is 3-13 at Lingfield in the last 50 days and seems to know where to put his horse, to ride him aggressively from his outside stall. His sire Red Clubs is much more profitable to back on this surface than turf, he has had one more recent run at Musselburgh which was fine, and I expect improvement today from a generous mark of OR84.
3.20 Lingfield
Banoffee 3pts win @ 15/2 (Betfred, guaranteed, 7/1 generally guaranteed)
Lalandia 3pts win @ 9/1 (Betfred, guaranteed, 8/1 generally guaranteed)
A really good fillies' stakes. It is hard to know what the pace will be like here, and I've selected a horse with a good turn of foot and one I believe will prove to be a very strong stayer who is more of a grinder. Banoffee is the former, she is related to all weather winners and I've had her down as a horse with potential on this surface ever since her Chesire Oaks win in May. Things haven't gone her way since, but her trainer is really adept at producing good horses to win on this surface and I think she represents good value at 7/1+.
Lalandia is a German stayer who looks for all the world as though she will improve for the step up to this trip. Her trainer has shown a decent eye for placing his horses well in England, with a Group 3 win from four U.K. representatives this year, and of course Dandream winning the King George in 2012. She is too big in relation to the likes of Phaenomena, having done all her best work at the finish in most of her recent starts, and her action would suggest she has every chance of acting better on this surface than the soft ground she has been encountering.
Profit & loss: day: -17.00 / month: -3.50 / year: +459.50
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