12.20 Lingfield Castle Combe 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 17/2 (Bet Victor, guaranteed, 8/1 Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 15/2 Betfair Sportsbook, independents, guaranteed) - E/W 3rd
Castle Combe represents the Marcus Tregoning stable, who have been resurgent just lately and had an impressive winner at Kempton last night. This is his fourth run, but the turf to polytrack angle is interesting here because his sire Dylan Thomas is producing progeny who are more successful on artificial surfaces (16% strike rate, 12% on turf). It is reasonable to suggest this strong travelling colt should find improvement for the change of surface, and he was arguably unlucky last time out at Brighton. There was a strong crosswind that day, and he was buffeted around the track and impeded by the other runners on a couple of occasions. Brighton is difficult enough for a juvenile without having to deal with that, and his rider wasted no time in accepting things. A first time visor is applied here, Tregoning used the same headgear on Syrenka when she won last week. I don't think stall 10 is necessarily a disadvantage over this trip in a maiden contest, and Dwyer has been riding this track well of late. 7/1+ is too big.
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Castle Combe had to use a bit too much petrol to get the lead earlier, he pulled clear with the first two and was good enough to take place money.
3.20 Lingfield Al Raqeeb 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 20/1 (Totesport, Betfred, Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed) - E/W 3rd
Al Raqeeb was formerly with Marco Botti, but he has joined Gary Harrison, who is a decent handler and is getting plenty of winners including at this track. The selection looks very well handicapped on this surface off a mark of OR74, and the way he streaked clear over seven furlongs here on his debut marked him down as a potential all weather specialist. His next two runs on the surface were good enough to confirm that impression, but you have to think he has been a little difficult to train having made his debut as a three year old, and been offloaded by Botti's yard. His debut for his new stable on turf was full of promise, however, and his last two runs can surely be struck off due to the soft ground. The return to this surface in 0-75 company gives him every chance of running a huge race, and he looks very much overpriced at the current odds.
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Al Raqeeba probably should have won at Lingfield earlier, but he just went off a shade too fast and I didn't expect him to be ridden like that. He looks a cert to pick up races off his current mark this winter.
One for this evening's Wolverhampton card.
4.50 Wolverhampton Bazooka 5pts win @ 4/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
Represents a stable who took a Nursery on the Lingfield card earlier. Bazooka looks to have been fairly well hidden in maidens, he ran a really eye catching race in a Kempton five furlong contest on his penultimate run, travelling like a natural on the surface and staying on really well under notably tender handling from his rider. He was given a similar ride at Bath last time out, and as a result starts off in nurserys off a lowly mark, with a good claimer taking 3lb off his back. He is bred to be a two year old being by Camacho, and I think he is a better horse than Stony Quine, who is favourite here. He kept good company in those maiden runs and, despite being a cheap enough purchase, I think he could be an OR75+ horse in time. I don't see any others in this line up of the same ilk, and a chance is taken on him being able to put it all together this evening at odds which look around a point too big.
Profit & loss: day: -3.80 / month: -63.80 / year: +395.70
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