6.10 Kempton Gay Marriage 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 20/1 (Bet 365, Ladbrokes, Coral, Bet Bright, many independents, guaranteed)
I always take note when John Gosden enters two in a maiden, and the fact that one is close to favourite means little to me because he doesn't tend to just run them for the fun of it. The selection is very cleverly named, being by New Approach out of the mare Doctrine, but that aside the pedigree is really strong and she is related to all weather winners. She wasn't cheap at 60,000GNS and she is bred to make a good two year old at around this trip in autumn. Obviously she is unraced, but those to have raced do not set an exacting standard to my mind - Sequester looks decent but very short on what she achieved at Leicester, Penny Sixpence has had a couple of months off, and Big Boned looks a three year old project to me. Anything around 16/1+ is decent value.
6.40 Kempton Sheikh The Reins 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 12/1 (Generally guaranteed)
I'm not overly keen on Loud or Evident and they both look short enough. Dominum has trip question marks to answer - his improved effort came over six furlongs last time - and I like the look of Sheikh The Reins who might still be improving. He travelled into his contest really well last time out in a race that probably wasn't run to suit him, and I am hoping for a stronger pace this evening to set things up for him. That is not guaranteed, but there are one or two pace angles that might develop for him and although he has been inconsistent, he is only a four year old and may still be improving. Anything in double figures is too big.
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Afternoon bets:
One race of interest for this afternoon - we may have evening bets, released before 5.30pm.
4.00 Lingfield
Haadeeth 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 9/1 (Totesport, Boylesports, Betfred, Paddy Power, guaranteed)
Billy Red 1pt each-way @ 16/1 (Generally) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP
Although I do like the profile of Jay Bee Blue, he is unproven at Lingfield and has yet to convince as a serial winner of races. That might change today, but barring him I don't see any of the sexier profile horses in this race playing a part in the finish. I have no idea why Ceelo is only 8/1, Meridius was beaten miles last time out and doesn't convince in a finish, Bapak Bagsawan's jockey booking looks a little unusual and I don't like his draw, and Alnoomaas hasn't looked on top form lately. The rock solid, proven at Lingfield horses are the pair we are backing. We'll get a decent portion of our stake back if even one of them runs into a place. Haadeeth has no fitness concerns, and he has the services of a 7lb claimer who looks good value for his allowance. His trainer has a tradition of using good claiming jockeys and this looks no different. The selection is a dual course and distance winner and looks fairly handicapped.
Billy Red represents a trainer whose horses are in good form. He is well drawn to attack and although at first glance there is plenty of pace on, that is not guaranteed and I wouldn't be surprised if he got an easy lead. He is a nine year old now and may still need today's run, but he is well handicapped and his regular pilot is booked to do the steering.
Profit & loss: day: -13.00 / month: +33.47 / year: +496.47
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